Are Cities Completely Jeffed?

[fifthcolumn]

Cities simply HAVE to survive or the game is over.

Yes. Cities falling is effectively equivalent to dieoff.

If the cities go down then we are toast.

[RogerCO]

Hmm. York has walls...

London has a potential wall - currently known as the M25 mostly.

[Erik]

Cities simply HAVE to survive or the game is over.

Yes. Cities falling is effectively equivalent to dieoff.

If the cities go down then we are toast.

What is meant by "survive" though? I'd say that cities cannot stay as they are now, they will have to change, and their populations will have to decline... but lets hope it's a slow transition, otherwise we are indeed toast! (Hey, we're all going to be toast one day anyway, innit?)

[fifthcolumn]

Cities simply HAVE to survive or the game is over.

Yes. Cities falling is effectively equivalent to dieoff.

If the cities go down then we are toast.

What is meant by "survive" though? I'd say that cities cannot stay as they are now, they will have to change, and their populations will have to decline... but lets hope it's a slow transition, otherwise we are indeed toast! (Hey, we're all going to be toast one day anyway, innit?)

Personally I think that there's no reason we can't have cities with trains, trolley buses, electric local delivery trucks and a sprinkling of electric cars and lots of electric mopeds and zillions of bicycles. That may be a bit different to what we're used to in the west but EXACTLY what cities in the far east are like.

[Erik]

Erik something you may be interested in

I read somewhere that such "wigglers" would not survive at temperatures below -5?C or above 30?C. Temperatures on my roof can range between -7? and 40?C over the year. And my OH says she wants the kitchen worm-free ... Or was she referring to me?

[Vortex]

One problem with the city situation is ... dare, I say it ... immigration.

Shortages etc could trigger all sorts of mayhem, which might make cities a lot less attractive.

Additionally, will rural communities allow most of their food to be diverted to immigrant communities in the cities?

(They will be FORCED to hand over their crops, as no government can afford to see the cities explode)

Not all aspects of Energy Descent are delightful, fun filled opportunities....

[UndercoverElephant]

One problem with the city situation is ... dare, I say it ... immigration.

Shortages etc could trigger all sorts of mayhem, which might make cities a lot less attractive.

Additionally, will rural communities allow most of their food to be diverted to immigrant communities in the cities?

(They will be FORCED to hand over their crops, as no government can afford to see the cities explode)

Not all aspects of Energy Descent are delightful, fun filled opportunities....

Who is going to grow crops if they think the government is going to turn up and take them away? What would be the point in growing them?

[fifthcolumn]

One problem with the city situation is ... dare, I say it ... immigration.

Shortages etc could trigger all sorts of mayhem, which might make cities a lot less attractive.

Additionally, will rural communities allow most of their food to be diverted to immigrant communities in the cities?

(They will be FORCED to hand over their crops, as no government can afford to see the cities explode)

Not all aspects of Energy Descent are delightful, fun filled opportunities....

Who is going to grow crops if they think the government is going to turn up and take them away? What would be the point in growing them?

Yes, the government. My favourite beast.
What will our friends in government do?

[fifthcolumn]

One problem with the city situation is ... dare, I say it ... immigration.

Shortages etc could trigger all sorts of mayhem, which might make cities a lot less attractive.

Additionally, will rural communities allow most of their food to be diverted to immigrant communities in the cities?

(They will be FORCED to hand over their crops, as no government can afford to see the cities explode)

Not all aspects of Energy Descent are delightful, fun filled opportunities....

If we're going to see shortages here in the west (and that is by no means assured) then there is an alternative to your scenario and that is blockade.

Since we are unarmed here in the UK then it would be fairly easy to ring the cities with troops and simply shoot anybody who crossed the deadline.

If we see a fast crash shortage scenario like you suggest it could come to that.

[Vortex]

I assume that the Cuban farmers have to hand over much of their crops .. but as long as they are allowed to keep say 10% they will carry on farming.

A well run - but somewhat unfair - system will work. people will put up with it as long as they get SOMETHING and it is GUARANTEED.

The modern economy is like that: we work 37 hours a week doing stupid things ... and in return we end up with food and a roof over our heads.

Same deal.

[fifthcolumn]

I assume that the Cuban farmers have to hand over much of their crops .. but as long as they are allowed to keep say 10% they will carry on farming.

A well run - but somewhat unfair - system will work. people will put up with it as long as they get SOMETHING and it is GUARANTEED.

The modern economy is like that: we work 37 hours a week doing stupid things ... and in return we end up with food and a roof over our heads.

Same deal.

Yes. The study I read was that the maximum average confiscation people would tolerate is 75%. Over that you get cut my nose off to spite my face retaliation.

[mikepepler]

Hmm. York has walls...

London has a potential wall - currently known as the M25 mostly.

I'm sure that's been mentioned in a another thread, in the context of fortifying to keep people IN, rather than OUT.

[Jane]

Good to hear all the points.

Fifth Column wrote:

Personally I think that there's no reason we can't have cities with trains, trolley buses, electric local delivery trucks and a sprinkling of electric cars and lots of electric mopeds and zillions of bicycles. That may be a bit different to what we're used to in the west but EXACTLY what cities in the far east are like.

Yeh, I often think this, given the rate at which things are currently slowing (touch wood! don't want to speak too soon!) and given how much structural change can occur with the right motivation. However, it's yet to be seen if mitigating social descent is as great a motivator as capital gain has been


Vortex wrote:

Not all aspects of Energy Descent are delightful, fun filled opportunities....

Don't worry, I'm not that deluded


clv101 said:

the mothership has landed

That would simplify things somewhat, eh? But you know me and my Jane-ness!


Interesting the point about a 1million pop. being most sustainable; bigger cities could well fragment into smaller livable chunks to some extent maybe? Depending on the rate and level of social unrest I guess, and again, the crux of the whole issue, food.

[clv101]

I like Vortex?s comment... ?but EXACTLY what cities in the far east are like?. It would be interesting to see some decent, inclusive, data on energy consumption per head in say San Francisco, Chicago, Manchester, Barcelona, Dakar, Mogadishu, Mumbay, Bangkok, Beijing and Tokyo.

All cities, but they must have massively different energy consumptions per head.

[fifthcolumn]

Good to hear all the points.

Fifth Column wrote:

Personally I think that there's no reason we can't have cities with trains, trolley buses, electric local delivery trucks and a sprinkling of electric cars and lots of electric mopeds and zillions of bicycles. That may be a bit different to what we're used to in the west but EXACTLY what cities in the far east are like.

Yeh, I often think this, given the rate at which things are currently slowing (touch wood! don't want to speak too soon!) and given how much structural change can occur with the right motivation. However, it's yet to be seen if mitigating social descent is as great a motivator as capital gain has been

We don't need to mitigate anything or even get the government involved.
The recession and rising prices by themselves will FORCE people to stop using their cars.
When the chaff is weeded out of the economy over the next five years the surviving businesses will start to hire again.
In the meantime people will have learned to live off of rapidly depreciating dole money and growing vegetables by themselves.
If they were smart enough to have bought a bike before they go skint then they will use a bike, otherwise they will walk.

No grand plan is needed for this to happen. It will happen all by itself. I take public transport as much as I can and I get funny looks by my colleagues. This contract I have to take the car because I'm doing a massive commute but it will be over in july.

I get a perverse sense of satisfaction out of it I have to say.
A lot of the oversized car driving wankers will be hoofing it.
BWAHAHAHAHAHA.