General Election 2024

[dustiswhatweare]

It seems an odd time to call an election: the tories must know they don't stand much of a chance.

But do they know something else which others don't?

What they know is that things are going to get worse, which includes the Rwanda plan. If it were to start, it's ineffectiveness would be apparent, and add to that the fantastically ludicrous cost of it, wouldn't look good. It looks total crap now, it'll get worse. Amongst other things, well, everything actually.

Even the dimmer of the electorate are aware that literally nothing works better now than in 2010, and mostly it's gone right down the chute.

[UndercoverElephant]

It seems an odd time to call an election: the tories must know they don't stand much of a chance.

But do they know something else which others don't?

I too am baffled by the timing. I thought the best time to call it was May, before they lost 600 councillors. If there were going to be Rwanda flights before election day then maybe that could be the explanation, but that was ruled out today.

It looks to me like Sunak has done what May did, which is to take an executive decision to call an election at an unexpected time in an attempt to wrongfoot the opposition. Turned out very badly for her, and I suspect it will turn out badly for him too.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rr73w103vo

“Labour MPs are happy. We’re not. That tells a story,” one minister fumed in my general direction as he reeled off a list of legislation he had been involved in, now headed for the shredder.

That’s just one illustration of the explosive mood in Westminster on Wednesday evening as Conservative MPs reacted to Rishi Sunak’s sudden announcement of a July election with reactions ranging from enthusiasm to outrage.

All of Mr Sunak’s MPs, though, were blindsided - including cabinet ministers who had no inkling of what was coming either, even being sent a fake agenda for their Wednesday afternoon meeting.

Now that it’s clear that the election really is on, many Conservatives are asking each other a simple question: why?

[clv101]

It is possible that Reform are the least prepared, least well funded and without candidates in place. Had Reform had another six months they could have posed a greater threat to the Tories than they will in July.

It's also possible that there's a lot of crap coming down the line in the coming months and Sunak just didn't want to be the one dealing with the collapse of Thames Water for example.

[UndercoverElephant]

Electoral calculus currently predicting a Labour majority of over 300, with the tories reduced to double figures and the SNP reduced to 12.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _main.html

[clv101]

Yeah, that's nonsense. Any model suggesting a Labour majority of over 300 is broken.

[BritDownUnder]

Collapse now and avoid the rush!

I like the theory about Reform not being ready.

One thing to remember though is will Labour be able to fix or change anything. I suspect not.

[mr brightside]

Collapse now and avoid the rush!

Ha ha

[Mark]

I would not consider voting labour. Whilst the present labour leader seems fairly sensible, moderate, and electable he could be replaced after any election victory by a harder left leader. Corbyn, or someone else with similar views.
Such a leader might well take us back into the EU, and out of NATO. And adopt an open door immigration policy.

There is zero probability of that happening while Labour is in power. That is why people like Owen Jones are leaving the party.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... p-policies

Agreed, this seems like a strange reason not to vote Labour in 6 weeks. The last thing Starmer's Labour is going to do is entertain a Corbyn figure coming to prominence any time soon.

Agreed - think I heard somewhere that Corbyn is standing as an independent....?
Interesting to see what Dianne Abbott does ?

Labour are going to be in the centre (not even left of centre) and will go out of their way to say/promise as little as possible...
Very uninspiring, but it should easily be enough as most people are totally fed up with the lies, corruption, arrogance and total incompetence of the Tories - Sunak couldn't even get his big announcement to look good - he looked like a small boy about to cry standing in the pouring rain...

Don't think it will be a massive landslide though, due to the way the votes are concentrated and the constituency/boundary changes...
The 'shires' will remain Tory, despite everything...., and as others have said, Reform have probably been caught unprepared...

[UndercoverElephant]

Collapse now and avoid the rush!

I like the theory about Reform not being ready.

One thing to remember though is will Labour be able to fix or change anything. I suspect not.

There are plenty of things they will be able to fix and change, because the tories were so incompetent and ideologically constrained. The problem is that in the context of the bigger picture it is mostly low-hanging fruit that won't change the overall trajectory of where the UK or the rest of the western world is heading.

[UndercoverElephant]

Labour...will go out of their way to say/promise as little as possible..

Don't think it will be a massive landslide though, due to the way the votes are concentrated and the constituency/boundary changes...
The 'shires' will remain Tory, despite everything...., and as others have said, Reform have probably been caught unprepared...

I'm not so sure about that. The less they promise, the more traction the tories will get for their "Labour doesn't have a plan" message. The manifestos are going to matter. Certainly in 2017 it was Corbyn's manifesto that changed the momentum of the campaigns in Labour's favour. But that was different because nobody expected Corbyn to actually win and this time it is a foregone conclusion that Labour will win. In other words, Labour is in a position to make at least some significant manifesto pledges that will actually translate into reality. And that is worth something -- £50 that is actually going to end up in your pocket is a considerable improvement on a promise of £500 that won't be honoured.

Specifically there is an open goal for certain things that only tory voters will hate. Even if the tories are wiped out in parliament, 15% of the electorate will still have voted for them. That demographic is ripe for squeezing.

[clv101]

Starmer's 8:10 interview this morning was poor. Unclear, little specific commitments. Didn't sound like he had a particularly clear vision or plan!

[UndercoverElephant]

Starmer's 8:10 interview this morning was poor. Unclear, little specific commitments. Didn't sound like he had a particularly clear vision or plan!

That is what the manifesto is for. I have been waiting for it for the last 5 years, not long to go now.

https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/l ... 4-sign-up/

[clv101]

Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove announced they aren't standing in the election - this abandonment of a party is getting pretty serious! Not only does it create more work to suddenly find a credible candidate, but also losing household names has to cost them a little.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... aign-start

Rishi Sunak will retreat from the campaign trail on Saturday, spending the day at home in his constituency and in London after a difficult first few days of the general election campaign.

Three sources have said the prime minister is taking the unusual step of a day away from public events on the first Saturday of the campaign and instead will spend it in discussion with his closest advisers.

Conservatives aides said the move was not part of an attempt to reset his campaign after a first week plagued by missteps and high-level resignation announcements.

There can be no reset. The jelly is collapsing.

[Potemkin Villager]

Heart can't really be in it caught between a rock and a hard place.
So prideful would probably be an even worse leader of the opposition than PM.
His richer half is probably telling him incessantly that he must be mad to continue in UK politics
and she would much rather they fecked off to California where he wouldn't have put on the fake smile, glad handle the plebs and pretend to care.
Still wouldn't very look good announcing he was not standing for reelection at this point........