potential solar storm damage to grid

[kenneal - lagger]

A question or Four. One, we get a fifteen hour notice? How? Does the solar storm travel at a slower speed then the speed of light? It is electromagnetic radiation isn't it and should arrive here at the same eye blink as the visible light that would tell us something is up.

The storm consists of charged particles physically ejected from the surface of the sun at a much lower speed than the speed of light. We can see it happen and then wait the fifteen hours for the particles to arrive. Go to the URL quoted by Adam2 above for a fuller explanation.

[adam2]

A question or Four. One, we get a fifteen hour notice? How? Does the solar storm travel at a slower speed then the speed of light? It is electromagnetic radiation isn't it and should arrive here at the same eye blink as the visible light that would tell us something is up.
Two, does the night side of the earth suffer the same effect as the day side?Possible with magnetic fields I suppose but what do they expect?
Three, Requisition portable generators? and deliver them in fifteen hours? From what stockpile or yard are you going to requisition them from and what government agency other then the Black watch could get the paper work done in three days much less in time to have them set up.
and four:
Who has any steam trains still in service this side of India?
I expect there are good answers to the first two. i just don't know what they are. Enlighten me if you will.

A solar storm is a fast moving cloud or stream of charged particles, much slower than light speed though. Light takes a few minutes to reach us from the sun, a solar storm takes typicly from 12 to 24 hours.
AFAIK any part of the earth is vulnerable due to the disruption of the ionosphere.
I have great doubts as to the effectiveness of governments in requistioning generators or taking prompt action of any sort. I mention the sort of things that a government COULD do, but have little faith they WOULD.
There are about 100 steam railway locomotives in running order in the UK, mainly located on heritage railways. Only a handfull are passed for use on the main line, but in an emergency such regulations could be ignored. There are also numerous preserved older diesel locomotives, these could be used in an emergency.

[vtsnowedin]

A question or Four. One, we get a fifteen hour notice? How? Does the solar storm travel at a slower speed then the speed of light? It is electromagnetic radiation isn't it and should arrive here at the same eye blink as the visible light that would tell us something is up.
Two, does the night side of the earth suffer the same effect as the day side?Possible with magnetic fields I suppose but what do they expect?
Three, Requisition portable generators? and deliver them in fifteen hours? From what stockpile or yard are you going to requisition them from and what government agency other then the Black watch could get the paper work done in three days much less in time to have them set up.
and four:
Who has any steam trains still in service this side of India?
I expect there are good answers to the first two. i just don't know what they are. Enlighten me if you will.

A solar storm is a fast moving cloud or stream of charged particles, much slower than light speed though. Light takes a few minutes to reach us from the sun, a solar storm takes typicly from 12 to 24 hours.
AFAIK any part of the earth is vulnerable due to the disruption of the ionosphere.
I have great doubts as to the effectiveness of governments in requistioning generators or taking prompt action of any sort. I mention the sort of things that a government COULD do, but have little faith they WOULD.
There are about 100 steam railway locomotives in running order in the UK, mainly located on heritage railways. Only a handfull are passed for use on the main line, but in an emergency such regulations could be ignored. There are also numerous preserved older diesel locomotives, these could be used in an emergency.

Thank you for that.
A hundred working steam locomotives, that is surprising. There are a few working antiques in the US. One is the cog railway that huffs tourist up Mt Washington in New Hampshire and a bunch in a place called appropriately enough Steam Town in Pennsylvania But I would expect the number that could be fired up and move on their own power on a days notice might be less then a dozen in the whole of the USA and the engineers and fireman that know how to run them are scarcer then hens teeth. Most of the working steam engines were decommissioned and cut up for scrap in the late fifties.

[biffvernon]

Does the solar storm travel at a slower speed then the speed of light? It is electromagnetic radiation isn't it and should arrive here at the same eye blink as the visible light that would tell us something is up.
Two, does the night side of the earth suffer the same effect as the day side?

No it's not electromagnetic radiation - it's a cloud of charged particles. We can see the eruption on the Sun's surface using light light that takes about eleven minutes to reach us but the charged particles that do the potential damage take a few days to arrive. Hence we get a fair bit of notice. Auroras can be, somewhat, predicted.

Day/night is independent of charged particle arrival time so yes all sides (does a sphere have sides?) could get the same effect.

[adam2]

Time to revive this old thread, rather than to start a new one on the same subject.
According to this report, we do not have much to worry about.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21357909

My natural inclination is that when TPTB say not to worry, that perhaps one should worry !

[boisdevie]

Fill the bath with water, and any other suitable containers.

What sort of containers should I fill my bath with?

[clv101]

"challenging but not cataclysmic"

I think the difference between the two is particularly tricky to calculate given the unknowns, lack of experience and the inherent complexity in the system.

[re]

Full report here:
http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/publicatio ... _Final.PDF

Adam, what do you think about this para from the bbc page:

"Our grid is organised as a lattice, which means it has resilience built in," commented Chris Train, the director of market operation at the National Grid. "That's very different to the Canadian grid, for example, which is point-to-point with long lines in series. You can see how that kind of system might be vulnerable to a cascade."

[adam2]

Full report here:
http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/publicatio ... _Final.PDF

Adam, what do you think about this para from the bbc page:

"Our grid is organised as a lattice, which means it has resilience built in," commented Chris Train, the director of market operation at the National Grid. "That's very different to the Canadian grid, for example, which is point-to-point with long lines in series. You can see how that kind of system might be vulnerable to a cascade."

It is largely true, our grid is indeed in the form of a lattice, or perhaps a grid !
Such a layout gives reslience against random faults and breakdowns such as might be caused by storm damage.
Our grid lines are shorter than say those in Canada and therefore a bit less vulnerable.
If however solar storm induced currents destroyed several large transformers, then we would have widespread blackouts, even if not off 24/7.
Most areas of the country have some generating capacity and therefore would still have SOME electricity without any long distance transmission. Rota power cuts would be needed.

Failed transformers can be replaced with smaller ones if need be, again with rota cuts.
As a last resort, some transmission lines could be energised at much reduced voltages, thereby needing fewer transformers. This would allow some very limited, local distribution of power to essiential loads near power stations.

And of course we dont know how bad the storm would be, it might blow up one or two transformers, or it might kill most of the network.
Or we might shut things down in time and limit the damage.

[biffvernon]

Bloke on the radio said the grid might encounter 'perturbations', The interviewer picked him up on that word and he admitted it could mean power cuts, some for an extended time.

That seems to be the real issue that is being glossed over. If more than a very few of the big transformers are damaged then it will take a very long time to repair the grid as spares of this sort of equipment is not kept in stock. It's all bespoke. The report addresses the transformer damage issue at around page 24.
In conclusion, from p27:

The time for an emergency transformer replacement, when a spare is available, is normally eight to 16 weeks,

It doesn't say what the time would be if a spare is not available.

[adam2]

Yes, certainly grounds for concern. There is enough redundancy in the system for the odd failure but not for significant numbers.
Although transformers are long lasting they do sometimes fail in normal use, and we dont face weeks long power cuts when such a failure occurs.

If however a number were damaged ?