Heat watch

[adam2]

AFAIK the calculation is done by comparing the number of deaths with those occurring in the same period in years without exceptional heat.

[Little John]

It might be worth comparing the period immediately following a heat wave to check if the death rate falls below the average for previous years. In other words, I am wondering if the vast majority of the people who died as a consequence of the heat wave were people who were already on death's door and would have died sometime in the near future anyway. If true, this would mean their deaths would drop out of the average death rate number for the near future equal to the rise in the number occurring during the heat wave.

[adam2]

In Russia, exceptionally mild weather is reported for the time of year.
Artificial snow is being applied to some areas to give a traditional new year atmosphere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50945383

[fuzzy]

I was told it was 16C in Scotland last night - very odd.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50941114

[vtsnowedin]

It might be worth comparing the period immediately following a heat wave to check if the death rate falls below the average for previous years. In other words, I am wondering if the vast majority of the people who died as a consequence of the heat wave were people who were already on death's door and would have died sometime in the near future anyway. If true, this would mean their deaths would drop out of the average death rate number for the near future equal to the rise in the number occurring during the heat wave.

Interesting point. I think that also applies to disasters like the hurricane in Puerto Rico where they are arguing about how many lives were "lost" due to the storm and slow emergency response work.

[kenneal - lagger]

In Russia, exceptionally mild weather is reported for the time of year.
Artificial snow is being applied to some areas to give a traditional new year atmosphere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50945383

So they are further contributing to the cause of the mild weather by using fossil fuelled energy to make snow to make the place look nice!!

[woodburner]

Forecast for Aberdeen at 1800 on Tuesday is 10�C. A bit different to a few years ago when temperatures were so lo for so long with bad conditions that heating oil was more expensive than fuel at the garages. Assuming you could get there. All the large heating oil suppliers had shut down as delivering was dangerous, and only the very small ones were prepared o take the risk.

[kenneal - lagger]

It depends on which loop of the ever more meandering jet stream we are in at any one time woodburner as to whether we get Arctic ice, Atlantic wetness, Russian bonechill or Saharan heat. We are fortunate to have Saharan heat at the moment.

[adam2]

State of emergency declared in California due to extreme heat.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57525251

Extreme even in an area known for hot weather, and several days before the official start of Summer.

[clv101]

The fires this year could be incredible.

[adam2]

There is growing concern at increasing temperatures that are directly dangerous to human health.
I refer here not to water shortages, crop failures, and the like but to conditions so hot that people just die from heat stress.

Temperatures over 50 degrees and with low humidity can be dangerous. Drinking plenty of water and sitting in front of an electric fan helps in hot dry conditions.

"wet bulb" temperatures of 35 degrees and up are very dangerous. Human life can not be long continued at a wet bulb temperature of more than 35 degrees.
Sitting in the shade and resting is likely to kill in a few hours.
Hard work in the sun can kill in minutes.
Drinking a lot of water helps prevent dehydration, but does not help lower the body temperature.
An electric fan offers little if any help in such conditions, sweat wont evaporate into air already at close to 100% humidity. Air movement wont carry away heat when the moving air is already at blood heat.

[clv101]

Phoenix, population 1.6 million and Las Vegas of 0.6 million hit both hit 46C today. Humidity around 10%. Night minimums are around 28-30 degrees. Phoenix has a 10 day forecast of similar mid 40s.

Unsurprisingly, the 10 day forecast has ~zero rainfall over CA, AZ, NV and UT.

The whole south west of the US seems to be deteriorating rapidly. We're at around +1.1C global warming. We're pretty much guaranteed at least another degree of warming. Even if all proposed mitigation activity happens, and we do get close to 'net zero' by 2050 - we're still in for several decades more of significant warming. That's the absolute best case scenario. Other, worse, scenarios are available, with higher likelihood.

[BritDownUnder]

Humidity around 10%. Night minimums are around 28-30 degrees. Phoenix has a 10 day forecast of similar mid 40s.

Fully agree with all you said. I think a long drought about 1000 years ago finished off the Anasazi civilization. I don't think this will finish off the states but may inspire water transfers on an even larger scale like the Rocky Mountain Trench project that was supposed to get water from Canada and maybe required nukes to blast a path for the water.

I experienced 10% humidity once in Australia and I could feel my lips beginning to crack and breathing through the nose was not much better.

Short Term the aircons will be cranked up. I think Vegas has 'cooling centres' open during the days but they shut at night.

[adam2]

Another week, another record high temperature.
Highest ever temperature recorded in Northern Ireland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57875732

Only by a fairly small margin, but still a new record.

[emordnilap]

Another week, another record high temperature.
Highest ever temperature recorded in Northern Ireland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57875732

Only by a fairly small margin, but still a new record.

It's unusual but probably not long-lasting. We've had several days of around 30ºC in the south of the country, we're not used to it but it's not the first time.

What is notable is the number of such extreme events around the world, including flooding and heat. A friend in Australia said it was 2ºC; it is winter but still, unusual.

Far fewer butterflies this year. The spring and right through to a couple of weeks ago wasn't kind to them. Crows seem to be in abundance and they're putting off smaller birds.