Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **adam2** » 25 Mar 2018, 16:38

Gas stocks now about 6,400GWH, a rather low figure by historical standards but probably fine so late in the season.
Unless some truly exceptional event or series of events occurs the panic is now over for this season.

Although we did not actually run out of gas, we came very close indeed, and it could be argued that we DID run out of affordable gas when prices peaked at about TEN times normal.
A great deal of wind power, and a reversion to significant coal burning saved the day.

Next year might be worse, since we wont have the dregs still being extracted from Rough, and North Sea production will be another year down the slope of decline.
Less chance of coal burning also since AFAIK another 2GW of coal burning capacity will close before next winter.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 26 Mar 2018, 18:40

Apparently we're in for "The Beast From The East(er!)" next week...

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 26 Mar 2018, 19:08

Every year about this time, we get easterly or north-easterly winds that may last up to a week (or more). Now some sound-bite maker has invented â€œthe beast from the eastâ€�. Itâ€™s just normal weather.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 26 Mar 2018, 20:40

Why does spring always feel colder than winter?

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 26 Mar 2018, 22:28

Mmmm, perhaps in winter people wear appropriate clothing, then throw it off before the end of May. Hence feeling cold

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 26 Mar 2018, 23:29

There is a Disney joke, perhaps in Mary Poppins? " I'd like some long underwear. How long do you want it? From December to March!

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 27 Mar 2018, 07:49

Post by **adam2** » 28 Mar 2018, 12:48

woodburner wrote:Every year about this time, we get easterly or north-easterly winds that may last up to a week (or more). Now some sound-bite maker has invented â€œthe beast from the eastâ€�. Itâ€™s just normal weather.

Indeed, the weather around Easter is expected to be a bit colder than average, but nothing exceptional.
Any increase in heating demand should be more than offset by the holidays.

Unless some truly exceptional event occurs, I do not expect any gas supply issues until next winter.

Post by **adam2** » 22 Apr 2018, 13:26

Natural gas stocks fluctuate daily but remain at around the 7,000GWH level.
With winter gone, this stock level would not normally be grounds for concern.

However with geopolitical tensions in various places that could affect supplies, we are rather vulnerable.

Any significant disruption to imports could have serious consequences in a relatively short time.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 22 Apr 2018, 15:27

adam2 wrote:Natural gas stocks fluctuate daily but remain at around the 7,000GWH level.
With winter gone, this stock level would not normally be grounds for concern.

However with geopolitical tensions in various places that could affect supplies, we are rather vulnerable.

Does this include LNG Stocks in import gasification places like Milford Haven and Isle of Grain.

Post by **adam2** » 22 Apr 2018, 16:00

Yes, we have LNG stocks and medium range storage. The total of the two is about 7,000GWH.

We used to have, short range storage which is no longer used.
And long range storage which is broken.

At a winter withdrawal rate of 1,000GWH a day we have enough for a week.
At a mild weather withdrawal rate it might last about a month.

Of course HMG would not wait until it was empty before declaring a state of emergency.
Under present circumstances with stocks for about a month, I would expect that serious disruption to imports would trigger a state of emergency when stocks dropped to about 3,500.
The remaining two weeks stocks could then be eked out for a lot longer than two weeks. It would depend on how strict the emergency controls on were.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 22 Apr 2018, 18:22

Tracking where the LNG boats are, of course, is a key piece of information.

Post by **adam2** » 08 May 2018, 19:11

Total gas stocks have increased only a little to 8,300GWH in the last couple of weeks.

Not of any great near term concern, but a more rapid filling might be better so as to be prepared for any future supply interruptions.

Post by **adam2** » 09 May 2018, 15:06

This looks to me to be a potentially worrying development.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44052601

A north sea gas field that supplies about 5% of UK natural gas demand is part owned by Iran, and part owned by BP.
BP wish to sell their share so as not be seen to be breaking US sanctions on Iran.

"The chairman of Serica, Tony Craven-Walker, told the BBC he was still hopeful that the deal would close and that there would be no interruption to a major source of gas for UK families and businesses."

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 26 May 2018, 15:28

AT this moment (2:30pm sat) gas is the 4th largest source of power in the UK after solar, nuclear and wind in that order.

53% of total supply renewable.

UNder ideal circumstances we could see direct fossil fuel electricity fall to zero for short periods, as both solar and wind could be higher by about 3GW each.