Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[mikepepler]

Gas stocks now 10,800GWH, yesterday the figure was 12,700.
So in 24 hours we have used 1,900GWH.
We have enough left for 5 days and a few hours.

Actually it's worse than that, because the stocks are not evenly distributed:
- storage dropped from 8,095 to 7,233GWh
- LNG stock dropped from 4,620 to 3,613

So only 3 days if we use LNG at the current rate. If LNG were allowed to run dry, I suspect we couldn't pull gas out of storage fast enough to make up the difference. I assume National Grid allows for this, but there may be network constraints that require a certain amount of LNG to enter the network.

[clv101]

So when's the next boat arriving?

[mikepepler]

So when's the next boat arriving?

Nothing due at Milford Haven in the next seven days:
https://www.mhpa.co.uk/vessels-arriving/

Harder to tell for Isle of Grain, as the website isn't so helpful and I'm not even sure it's the right one for the LNG terminal:
http://www.londonthamesport.co.uk/Vessel.aspx

But I've looked up the vessels listed there, and none are LNG ships.

I see the Margin Notice trigger is 410mcm tomorrow, when it was 455mcm today - though clearly we got into trouble at a lot less than that! demand is predicted at 395mcm for tomorrow at present. Figures from:
http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/P ... View/Index

A lot will depend on the weather, European demand, and machinery not breaking down. But I think it's reasonable to assume that machinery is most likely to break when it's being pushed hard, or operating in harsh conditions, so it really shouldn't be a surprise when it happens in winter.

[mikepepler]

Imports through Bacton IC and BBL have stepped up now, filling the gap for today at least: http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/E ... Page/Index

[cubes]

Note that I refer here to ELECTRICITY cuts, there is no such thing as rota GAS cuts.

The rota gas cuts exist sort of, no electricity = no gas central heating (so double whammy)

[Rogerb]

Interesting figures on UK gridwatch, this evening.
CCGT down to 2.77GW.
Yet Coal at 9.34GW.

Shows how price alters things.
I wonder how long it will take to get back to normal.

How much working Coal capacity do we have left working?

[adam2]

Welcome.
I suspect that that the available working coal burning generating capacity is about 11.2GW.
I base this estimate on the fact that power from coal has often been at around this figure during the last few days. Given the present very high price of natural gas and the scarcity thereof it seems unlikely that any operable coal capacity exists that was not in fact in use.

[adam2]

Gas emergency now lifted, according to prevailing view website.

Although no longer classed as an emergency, I expect that supplies will remain tight and prices high for some time, I doubt that prices will remain at yesterdays most exceptional levels, but do expect higher than "normal" prices.

Stocks are still low with little near term prospect of significant filling.

Mainland Europe is also suffering from unusually cold weather and consequent increased gas demand.
We will be competing with them for supplies.

[kenneal - lagger]

I thought of writing to my MP to ask why the government has allowed our gas storage capacity to drop so low and leave us having to burn coal because gas is too expensive but I suspect he would use it as an excuse for encouraging fracking for gas in the UK!

[adam2]

According to prevailing view, the "buy" price for natural gas has now reached an astonishing 17p (seventeen pence) a kwh, or about £5 a therm.

This is about TEN times the normal price !

So much for my prediction that prices would fall from yesterdays peak.

The vertical scale of the price chart has had to be so expanded that the significant price increase in mid December is now almost lost in the noise.

[fuzzy]

As Mike said we have LNG for about 2 days, and at least 6 days before the next banana boat arrives at Milford Haven, so a large chunk of generation out of action soon. The next question is what do the coal heaps look like, since it is so unfashionable now?

[mikepepler]

And in today's globally connected world, events far away can have an impact...

ExxonMobil Corp has declared force majeure on exports from its Papua New Guinea LNG project, which has been shut since a powerful earthquake on Monday, an industry source familiar with the matter said on Friday.

Exxon is having trouble gauging the extent of the earthquake’s damage, given the remoteness of the gas field, in the mountainous jungles of Papua New Guinea, 700 km (435 miles) from the export terminal.

“It is difficult to assess the duration of production outages, but in our view, given the location and magnitude of the earthquake, as well as the scale of the aftershocks, we anticipate at least a month’s downtime is likely,� UBS bank said in an investor note on the earthquake’s likely impact on the LNG sector.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/global-l ... KL4N1QK3CV

[mikepepler]

In 2016 we exported around 7.9 million tonnes of LNG to our customers in Asia.

https://www.pnglng.com/About/Our-Operat ... d-shipping

That's about 11 bcm/year, or 30mcm/day.

[mikepepler]

LNG tanker now due on 6 March at Milford Haven. https://www.mhpa.co.uk/vessels-arriving/

[Potemkin Villager]

According to prevailing view, the "buy" price for natural gas has now reached an astonishing 17p (seventeen pence) a kwh, or about £5 a therm.

This is about TEN times the normal price !

So much for my prediction that prices would fall from yesterdays peak.

The vertical scale of the price chart has had to be so expanded that the significant price increase in mid December is now almost lost in the noise.

If anything of this order were to be maintained it wouid be a shot in the arm for fracking....