By that do you mean a reduction in prices?andyh wrote: There will be retraces (some sharp)
I hope it does go down a bit because i'm more concerned about getting a bit of gold for the future than short term gain, good as that might be.
Investing in physical gold – discuss
Moderator: Peak Moderation
I'm kicking myself now for not buying some gold last year when i first came across the idea on the peakoil.com forums, and now i feel like i've missed my chance a bit.
I hope it does go down a bit because i'm more concerned about getting a bit of gold for the future than short term gain, good as that might be.
I hope it does go down a bit because i'm more concerned about getting a bit of gold for the future than short term gain, good as that might be.
Rob
XENG - University of Exeter Engineering Society
"Now there is one outstandingly important fact regarding Spaceship Earth, and that is that no instruction book came with it." - R. Buckminster Fuller
XENG - University of Exeter Engineering Society
"Now there is one outstandingly important fact regarding Spaceship Earth, and that is that no instruction book came with it." - R. Buckminster Fuller
Hi xeng
yes retraces are falls. In any market movement you will see sudden reversals etc where the price tumbles. At some point the price of gold will suddenly tumble over the course of a few days, even weeks, and the price may come back by say $100 in very short order. Such movements provide buying opportunities for those wanting to buy (and are often rather worrying for holders!). Market participants have been saying for a while that we are due some such retrace in gold (maybe to $650). I have no idea when and if this will happen!
There is no doubt that gold is at least partly being pulled up by the general commodities bull (and I have some problems with the latter). But it is also moving up in response to the declining buying power of the US$ ( the debt levels in the US are staggering both govt and private, and there is mounting evidence that foreigners are no longer prepared to finance the debt - result - the $ must fall), and in response to inflationary pressures (where peakoil is a major driver). The US economy may also be facing a 'home' grown recession as well - much of the recent debt fueled binge has resulted from a housing bubble, and yet for the past 5 months prices of new homes have been tumbling (18% annualised I see in a report this week). A housing and consumer slowdown (the latter affected by oil price concerns), would in ordinary times necessitate the Fed looking at interest rate cuts (which is bad for the $) - BUT inflation is on the rise so they wont be able to respond like this (the classic initial signs of Stagflation). Either result is likely a run on the $ and gold gaining. An early US recession (say next year if the above pans out) will lead to a global growth slowdown and fall in oil demand (are we seeing the first signs of this?). Likewise an end to the commodities boom.
Would gold suffer in the above climate? Maybe (so there is another point to be on the look out for!) in the short term at least. But then other factors continue to have an impact (peakoil didnt disappear, the economy is in longer term crisis, all other assets, especially paper ones gradually fail, leading to a flight to the traditional hard assets)
We are talking about a gold bull that lasts many years, but which will have several big downturns (I have highlighted one potential one above, the first commodities bust). I see peakoil and the related economic crises (the much postponed US debt bust, the western housing bubble pop), as now taking place rather like a train crash in slow motion, evolving over a period extending from say next year to 2015. This will in my opinion, also be the length of the gold bull.
yes retraces are falls. In any market movement you will see sudden reversals etc where the price tumbles. At some point the price of gold will suddenly tumble over the course of a few days, even weeks, and the price may come back by say $100 in very short order. Such movements provide buying opportunities for those wanting to buy (and are often rather worrying for holders!). Market participants have been saying for a while that we are due some such retrace in gold (maybe to $650). I have no idea when and if this will happen!
There is no doubt that gold is at least partly being pulled up by the general commodities bull (and I have some problems with the latter). But it is also moving up in response to the declining buying power of the US$ ( the debt levels in the US are staggering both govt and private, and there is mounting evidence that foreigners are no longer prepared to finance the debt - result - the $ must fall), and in response to inflationary pressures (where peakoil is a major driver). The US economy may also be facing a 'home' grown recession as well - much of the recent debt fueled binge has resulted from a housing bubble, and yet for the past 5 months prices of new homes have been tumbling (18% annualised I see in a report this week). A housing and consumer slowdown (the latter affected by oil price concerns), would in ordinary times necessitate the Fed looking at interest rate cuts (which is bad for the $) - BUT inflation is on the rise so they wont be able to respond like this (the classic initial signs of Stagflation). Either result is likely a run on the $ and gold gaining. An early US recession (say next year if the above pans out) will lead to a global growth slowdown and fall in oil demand (are we seeing the first signs of this?). Likewise an end to the commodities boom.
Would gold suffer in the above climate? Maybe (so there is another point to be on the look out for!) in the short term at least. But then other factors continue to have an impact (peakoil didnt disappear, the economy is in longer term crisis, all other assets, especially paper ones gradually fail, leading to a flight to the traditional hard assets)
We are talking about a gold bull that lasts many years, but which will have several big downturns (I have highlighted one potential one above, the first commodities bust). I see peakoil and the related economic crises (the much postponed US debt bust, the western housing bubble pop), as now taking place rather like a train crash in slow motion, evolving over a period extending from say next year to 2015. This will in my opinion, also be the length of the gold bull.
Some important issues concerning gold in the link below, how to buy and store it, the various alternatives
those who thought the money in their bank account was their property ought to read this
also anyone that is holding a piece of paper saying "IOU 2 kg. of gold" or something like it
while the paper system holds up none of this is very important but the recent rise in gold is perhaps the first sign of lack of confidence in paper money, especially $'s, remember also that the number of people who have even heard of putting money into gold and silver to protect their wealth is probably stll not very many
http://www.galmarley.com/FAQs_pages/kee ... e_faqs.htm
those who thought the money in their bank account was their property ought to read this
also anyone that is holding a piece of paper saying "IOU 2 kg. of gold" or something like it
while the paper system holds up none of this is very important but the recent rise in gold is perhaps the first sign of lack of confidence in paper money, especially $'s, remember also that the number of people who have even heard of putting money into gold and silver to protect their wealth is probably stll not very many
http://www.galmarley.com/FAQs_pages/kee ... e_faqs.htm
Well looks like that was pretty much it for the retrace, US$ in a spin again. Good buying opportunity for the brave it would seem?
Rapid down moves like that happen in bull markets; but I fancy this is unlike most bull markets in its length and durability. Nowt changed, all the problems are still there, peakoil didnt disappear (unfortunately). Historically May is a poor month for POG; the second half of the year is when gold is typically at its most positive - I would not be surprised to see POG hit $900 in that timescale - more off the back of a bad hurricane season (and oil above say $85)
Rapid down moves like that happen in bull markets; but I fancy this is unlike most bull markets in its length and durability. Nowt changed, all the problems are still there, peakoil didnt disappear (unfortunately). Historically May is a poor month for POG; the second half of the year is when gold is typically at its most positive - I would not be surprised to see POG hit $900 in that timescale - more off the back of a bad hurricane season (and oil above say $85)
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SILVERHARP2
- Posts: 611
- Joined: 14 Feb 2006, 17:02
- Location: DUBLIN
The way I see it the money is on for a hurricane hit this year but wouldn't be surprised if mother nature is a little kinder this year, although the cycle is for more hurricanes it doesn't mean that you get bad ones every year or that they get worse as you get longer into th cycleandyh wrote: the second half of the year is when gold is typically at its most positive - I would not be surprised to see POG hit $900 in that timescale - more off the back of a bad hurricane season (and oil above say $85)
Also I believe the Fed will keep rasing rates until the commodity complex is taken down, it would be bad for their credability if they stopped while gold copper and oil were going up in price. I reckon theire should be a good entry point during the summer
fair points, and gold weakened overnight as the $ rose in response to inflation concerns (yep inflation is slowly creeping out despite the best attempts of govt statisticians to write it out of the story!). However the Fed is between a rock and a hard place now - if they are forced by inflation to put up rates they will sink the US housing market (already happening it seems). In turn that will sink the US economy (result $ falls), as a form of stagflation sets in. That will cause problems for the commodities boom for sure, but a falling $ would be good for gold. However way you cut it, it is hard not to see a good future for gold, though as you rightly point out there will certainly be gyrations!
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simonrichards912
- Posts: 76
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
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simonrichards912
- Posts: 76
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
Gold Mining
Given what I've just read on this website, I wouldn't want to invest in gold or any other mineral.
http://www.cafod.org.uk/get_involved/ca ... th_justice
http://www.cafod.org.uk/get_involved/ca ... th_justice
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PowerswitchClive
- Posts: 158
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Re: Gold Mining
You could say that about many consumer goods and food products.simonrichards912 wrote:Given what I've just read on this website, I wouldn't want to invest in gold or any other mineral.
http://www.cafod.org.uk/get_involved/ca ... th_justice
This is more about making yourself some money, rather than any sort of moral judgement or statements.
It is neither illegal or expensive to invest in gold in some way.
You can buy gold in any form you wish and gold coins start at ?50 (currently) for a tenth of an ounce in bullion (and there are many different types and styles to choice from). There are also several easy ways of buying bullion - in person at your nearest bullion dealer, over the phone/postal and via the internet.
From some of the posts on this topic, you would think that buying bullion was very difficult to do, or very undesirable. I think the opposite is true, along with buying silver billion, buying gold is an excellent means to store some money away for a rainy day.
The last proof Britannia that I bought, I got for a steal at ?360 at the beginning of April 06 - the same coin is currently being sold by two bullion dealers for ?450, just over a month later.
I haven't bought anything further since gold went over $600. Although I am hoping to get some more, if the price drops a little over the coming weeks.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)
Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)
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PowerswitchClive
- Posts: 158
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Getting rid of the myths, buying Gold and Silver bullion could not be easier. It is neither illegal or undesirable. Safes are also affordable if you wish to store at home or with a little imagination, I am sure you can think of somewhere to stash a few coins. Selling is easy, bullion dealers will buy on the spot what you have, for the gold price, minus a small percentage... or cut out the middle man and sell it on ebay. Many of the bullion dealers also sell on ebay.
How easy could you want it?
As for whether you think it is a good idea or not is up to you.
The financial analysts that know about peak oil (Jim Puplava, Stephen Leeb come to mind) think that the price of gold is going to the moon.
The decision is yours and its a personal thing.
My disclaimer > I do not store gold at home in the flat
How easy could you want it?
As for whether you think it is a good idea or not is up to you.
The financial analysts that know about peak oil (Jim Puplava, Stephen Leeb come to mind) think that the price of gold is going to the moon.
The decision is yours and its a personal thing.
My disclaimer > I do not store gold at home in the flat
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)
Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)
This thing about "investing" in gold is a pretty immoral thing to engage in. There is very little real use for gold, it's mainly a fetish thing, and "investing" in gold is in reality just plain old speculation.
I'm not sure that mere speculation is immoral, but gold mining sure is! Anyone know how they do it nowdays? Heap-leaching with cyanide. Processing humongous amounts of rock, roasting it and drenching it in cyanide. In historic times, mercury leaching have been used, leaving old mines and streams full of mercury. And all of this cost terrible amounts of energy.
If all this had been done in order to make life better for people it could have been excused, but now its done to get hold of a barbaric relic of little or no use.
Immoral, for sure, but as with any speculation, it could be profitable.
I'm not sure that mere speculation is immoral, but gold mining sure is! Anyone know how they do it nowdays? Heap-leaching with cyanide. Processing humongous amounts of rock, roasting it and drenching it in cyanide. In historic times, mercury leaching have been used, leaving old mines and streams full of mercury. And all of this cost terrible amounts of energy.
If all this had been done in order to make life better for people it could have been excused, but now its done to get hold of a barbaric relic of little or no use.
Immoral, for sure, but as with any speculation, it could be profitable.