Let's hope so! I'm rooting for a no deal!
Poor Barnier is meeting Foster today... getting bogged down in Irish politics!! He he
Brexit process
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Lord Beria3
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UndercoverElephant
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Lord Beria3
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Not too fussed really as long as it is bare bones.
Peston tweeting that a draft deal has been agreed between olly Robbins and Barnier but the eu27, Tory cabinet and dup need to sign up.
https://www.politico.eu/article/5-obsta ... eresa-may/
The devil is on the details and as this politico article notes still a lot of stumbling blocks.
Peston tweeting that a draft deal has been agreed between olly Robbins and Barnier but the eu27, Tory cabinet and dup need to sign up.
https://www.politico.eu/article/5-obsta ... eresa-may/
The devil is on the details and as this politico article notes still a lot of stumbling blocks.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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UndercoverElephant
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DUP threatening to vote down the budget later this month. They do not trust May, and who can blame them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45806063
I can honestly say that never before have I distrusted a politician like I currently distrust Theresa May. She has no shame, no loyalty and no conscience. She will stab anybody in the back in order get what she wants.
I reckon she's already agreed something with Barnier that the DUP will reject. In fact I think she's trying to agree something in private that almost nobody is going to be happy with, and is about to make herself into the least popular prime minister ever.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45806063
I can honestly say that never before have I distrusted a politician like I currently distrust Theresa May. She has no shame, no loyalty and no conscience. She will stab anybody in the back in order get what she wants.
I reckon she's already agreed something with Barnier that the DUP will reject. In fact I think she's trying to agree something in private that almost nobody is going to be happy with, and is about to make herself into the least popular prime minister ever.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 10 Oct 2018, 21:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Lord Beria3
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Quite possibly UE.
The French also hate the idea of a perpetual customs union. They think it is a la carte by the Brits and sense a perfidious plot by May.
So it may be vetoed by the French anyway. Macron has made it clear that Brexit Britain cannot be successful and there must be a cost to Brexit.
As Greer responded to me recently, lets get the popcorn out!
The French also hate the idea of a perpetual customs union. They think it is a la carte by the Brits and sense a perfidious plot by May.
So it may be vetoed by the French anyway. Macron has made it clear that Brexit Britain cannot be successful and there must be a cost to Brexit.
As Greer responded to me recently, lets get the popcorn out!
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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UndercoverElephant
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It's about that time, yes. They've run out of road for kicking cans, and this time a fudge won't work. Something has to break, and it looks like it is going to happen before or on budget day (Oct 29th). Right now, both the DUP and the EU look like they will not back down on their respective red lines where the effective border between the UK and Ireland will be. Barnier has met Foster and their meeting resolved nothing.Lord Beria3 wrote: lets get the popcorn out!
If May announces a deal involving a border in the Irish Sea, the DUP will vote down the budget and under the fixed term parliament act, that is effectively a no confidence vote in the government ---> general election.
Assuming the EU do not capitulate and accept chequers even though it splits the four freedoms, the only way that TM can avoid that general election is by announcing there is going to be no deal ---> all hell breaks loose.
And if the EU does capitulate and resurrect chequers ---> ERG moves against her and will succeed.
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UndercoverElephant
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Also
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... government
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... government
This is new. Now the ERG are threatening to bring down the government.The DUP threat comes days after the hard-Brexit ERG indicated that its MPs – thought realistically to amount to around 40 – would also be prepared to vote against the budget a few days after it is delivered by Philip Hammond on October 29.
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Lord Beria3
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Don't worry, there will be a massive cost to No Deal Brexit.....Lord Beria3 wrote: and there must be a cost to Brexit.
Went to a Chemical Industry Event yesterday run by HSE & DEFRA.
They basically mapped out the consequence of Deal and No Deal Scenarios..., covering the European Chemical Agency (ECHA) and various major pieces if chemical legislation such as REACh, CLP, BPR, PPP etc....
To summarise No Deal, the UK would set up near identical regulatory systems which would to add to costs massively but give no visible benefit, even without considering the skill shortages to implement and the disruption involved... The logical conclusion is a massive shrinkage of the chemical sector.
Suspect that many other industrial sectors are looking at similar.
No Deal will wreck UK manufacturing far worse than Maggie ever managed to....
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kenneal - lagger
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Given the IPCC's report on 1.5 degrees and what the cuts need to be, this 'massive shrinkage' sounds about right.Mark wrote:The logical conclusion is a massive shrinkage of the chemical sector.
Suspect that many other industrial sectors are looking at similar.
No Deal will wreck UK manufacturing...
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kenneal - lagger
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Lord Beria3
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Latest eurointelligence briefing...
How to shrink the Irish border
We are in a critical phase in the Brexit negotiations, but we are certainly not close to a deal as some reports suggested yesterday. We recall similarly statements during the Greek crisis in 2015. It is the oldest negotiation trick in the book, aimed to put pressure on the other side in the final stages of a long and hard negotiation.Â
We still don’t see the UK parliamentary math stacking up in favour of an agreed Brexit deal, at least not yet. It will invariably shift, but until that happens we don’t see much room for manouevre.
The biggest news yesterday were reports suggesting the possible beginnings of such a shift. But it goes in two directions. The DUP has hardened its position after Arlene Foster's meetings in Brussels, and is now threatening to vote against the budget thus effectively ending its support for Theresa May’s minority government. We discount that threat because it would trigger new elections - not immediately but certainly in 2019. But the statement is also telling us that the DUP is not yet on board for a Brexit deal - to put this mildly.
On the other side May is talking to some 20-30 Labour MPs who are considering to support an agreement as they prefer any deal to a hard Brexit. Sebastian Payne argues in the FT that the parliamentary arithmetic is beginning to shift in May’s favour. The 20-30 Labour MPs are not beholden to Jeremy Corbyn, who is expected to impose a three-line whip on his MPs to reject the deal. All of these 20-30 MPs are willing, in principle, to break the whip. Payne also argues that the much-threatened Tory rebellion is likely to shrink to a small group of hardcore Brexiteers. Payne’s rule of thumb is that parliamentary rebellions usually shrink to a quarter by the time it comes to a vote. We also believe that the rebellion will weaken in the coming weeks and months, but to secure agreement May needs two things to happen at the same time: the number of Tory rebels must not be much larger than the number of Labour rebels; and the DUP needs to support her. May can hardly afford to lose the 10 DUP votes without securing off-setting support either from Labour or her own ranks. What complicates the matter further is that the demands of the Labour MPs and those of the Brexiteers are diametrically opposed. Whatever direction May moves towards, she will lose some support.
In his statement in the European Parliament yesterday Michel Barnierindirectly alluded to the big decision that has yet to be made, which is one between a customs union as the end state of Brexit and a free-trade agreement. If May pivots towards a customs union, she may gain more support from Labour MPs and the DUP. But that would maximise the Tory rebellion. We doubt this is the way she will go. If she moves towards an FTA, she might placate some her own rebels, but she may find it harder to keep the Labour MPs and the DUP on board.
Barnier gave details on some of the technical discussions that are currently taking place. We note that some UK newspapers are very confused about the three stages of Brexit - the transition period, a very likely interim period that involves membership of a customs union, and the yet undecided final state. The technical discussions on the Irish border relate to the latter. Barnier said the EU was willing to consider technical solutions to shift some of the border control formalities into companies. We very much agree with him when he talks about the need to de-dramatise the Irish border issue. It is of the kind of issues that appear to be huge in political discussions, but then disappear as you approach them. We believe that even in a scenario of a transitional phase ending in a WTO regime, the border can be substantially softened. Many of the technical points Barnier talked about like barcode scanning or veterinary controls can be carried out away from the border under any regime.Â
Both the end state and the transition modalities towards it are the big outstanding political problems - both for the UK and the EU. May will today gather her inner cabinet for a briefing on the latest development, another sign that there is movement in the debate ahead of next week’s summit.  Â
How to shrink the Irish border
We are in a critical phase in the Brexit negotiations, but we are certainly not close to a deal as some reports suggested yesterday. We recall similarly statements during the Greek crisis in 2015. It is the oldest negotiation trick in the book, aimed to put pressure on the other side in the final stages of a long and hard negotiation.Â
We still don’t see the UK parliamentary math stacking up in favour of an agreed Brexit deal, at least not yet. It will invariably shift, but until that happens we don’t see much room for manouevre.
The biggest news yesterday were reports suggesting the possible beginnings of such a shift. But it goes in two directions. The DUP has hardened its position after Arlene Foster's meetings in Brussels, and is now threatening to vote against the budget thus effectively ending its support for Theresa May’s minority government. We discount that threat because it would trigger new elections - not immediately but certainly in 2019. But the statement is also telling us that the DUP is not yet on board for a Brexit deal - to put this mildly.
On the other side May is talking to some 20-30 Labour MPs who are considering to support an agreement as they prefer any deal to a hard Brexit. Sebastian Payne argues in the FT that the parliamentary arithmetic is beginning to shift in May’s favour. The 20-30 Labour MPs are not beholden to Jeremy Corbyn, who is expected to impose a three-line whip on his MPs to reject the deal. All of these 20-30 MPs are willing, in principle, to break the whip. Payne also argues that the much-threatened Tory rebellion is likely to shrink to a small group of hardcore Brexiteers. Payne’s rule of thumb is that parliamentary rebellions usually shrink to a quarter by the time it comes to a vote. We also believe that the rebellion will weaken in the coming weeks and months, but to secure agreement May needs two things to happen at the same time: the number of Tory rebels must not be much larger than the number of Labour rebels; and the DUP needs to support her. May can hardly afford to lose the 10 DUP votes without securing off-setting support either from Labour or her own ranks. What complicates the matter further is that the demands of the Labour MPs and those of the Brexiteers are diametrically opposed. Whatever direction May moves towards, she will lose some support.
In his statement in the European Parliament yesterday Michel Barnierindirectly alluded to the big decision that has yet to be made, which is one between a customs union as the end state of Brexit and a free-trade agreement. If May pivots towards a customs union, she may gain more support from Labour MPs and the DUP. But that would maximise the Tory rebellion. We doubt this is the way she will go. If she moves towards an FTA, she might placate some her own rebels, but she may find it harder to keep the Labour MPs and the DUP on board.
Barnier gave details on some of the technical discussions that are currently taking place. We note that some UK newspapers are very confused about the three stages of Brexit - the transition period, a very likely interim period that involves membership of a customs union, and the yet undecided final state. The technical discussions on the Irish border relate to the latter. Barnier said the EU was willing to consider technical solutions to shift some of the border control formalities into companies. We very much agree with him when he talks about the need to de-dramatise the Irish border issue. It is of the kind of issues that appear to be huge in political discussions, but then disappear as you approach them. We believe that even in a scenario of a transitional phase ending in a WTO regime, the border can be substantially softened. Many of the technical points Barnier talked about like barcode scanning or veterinary controls can be carried out away from the border under any regime.Â
Both the end state and the transition modalities towards it are the big outstanding political problems - both for the UK and the EU. May will today gather her inner cabinet for a briefing on the latest development, another sign that there is movement in the debate ahead of next week’s summit.  Â
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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Lord Beria3
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Regarding the economic impact of a no deal/wto brexit I'm with eurointelligence on this one... the economic impacts are real but not remotely as bad as forecast in the UK media. The political impact will be far bigger then the economic impact.
P.s. eurointelligence are pro European and certainly not brexiteer!
P.s. eurointelligence are pro European and certainly not brexiteer!
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction