Recession official

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 23 Jan 2009, 10:02

For those who haven't seen, the UK is officially in recession, with the last quarter of 2008 showing a contraction in GDP (1.5%), which means that over 2008, GDP fell by 1.8%,

Peter.

mick98 · Post by **mick98** » 24 Jan 2009, 00:17

I think we all knew it anyway, I cannot see what difference giving it a title will make.

It is such a shame our country has ended up in this mess.

Post by **clv101** » 24 Jan 2009, 00:22

The BBC have now officially moved from 'Downturn' to 'Recession'.

How many red bars make a depression?

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 24 Jan 2009, 07:14

clv101 wrote: How many red bars make a depression?

GDP decline of 10% or more.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 24 Jan 2009, 16:11

Many of us remember the 'red bar' period of the early nineties - house prices had just been shooting up alarmingly (familiar?) and then people were experiencing 'negative equity' (familiar?), jobs were being lost at a rate not seen for several years (familiar?), billions got spent propping up the currency after Black Wedndesday (familiar?), the BNP were strong in Tower Hamlets (!), we had the Gulf war (familiar?), Bush was in charge, Britain had an insipid conservative in charge (hmmm), double digit inflation etc etc.

The main difference was interest rates - I recall around 15% on my mortgage at the time, rather than the extremely low rates being wielded by suits this time round.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 24 Jan 2009, 17:54

There's a similar graph across two pages of today's Guardian but it goes back to 1970. It's easy to see that the last section, since September 92 'Black Wednesday' has been atypical, with continuos blue bars. Before that the red bars occurred quite often, particularly from 70 to 84.

Post by **clv101** » 24 Jan 2009, 18:18

Atypical? Or maybe miracle or illusion! The ~2% decline in GDP only puts us back to early 2007 GDP - so why can't unemployment, interest rates, house prices etc be the same as they were then? It's interesting they way things don't unwind as a reflection of what came before. I think this also suggests the oil production curve will be anything but symmetrical around the peak as is often shown in sketch form.

2 As and a B · Post by **2 As and a B** » 24 Jan 2009, 18:39

Blue Peter wrote:For those who haven't seen, the UK is officially in recession, with the last quarter of 2008 showing a contraction in GDP (1.5%), which means that over 2008, GDP fell by 1.8%,

Peter.

Clarification please. I heard on the radio that GDP in Q4 was down 1.5% on the previous quarter, which was -0.6%. Now, I know that the BBC reporters are a bunch of Arts graduates with no head for numbers, so what is the real situation?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 24 Jan 2009, 19:59

clv101 wrote: I think this also suggests the oil production curve will be anything but symmetrical around the peak as is often shown in sketch form.

So what shape will the asymmetry take?

And what sort of a recession is needed to stop us adding CO2 to the atmosphere?

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 24 Jan 2009, 20:17

biffvernon wrote: And what sort of a recession is needed to stop us adding CO2 to the atmosphere?

The sort that comes with a full on thermonuclear war

( I'll be adding CO2 to the atmosphere as long as I'm breathing)

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 24 Jan 2009, 22:14

( I'll be adding CO2 to the atmosphere as long as I'm breathing)

Be green - no heavy breathing!

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 24 Jan 2009, 22:27

skeptik wrote: ( I'll be adding CO2 to the atmosphere as long as I'm breathing)

By burying charcoal you make from burning plants you grow you could sequester far more. Lovelock, writing in this week's New Scientist, says this is the only way we have a chance of avoiding doom.

Post by **clv101** » 25 Jan 2009, 01:39

The pound has lost 43% against the Japanese Yen over the last six months. The price of Japanese imports are going to be a very visible impact of the economic crisis.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 25 Jan 2009, 08:54

Hence Sony's little trouble:

"Sony Corp forecast a record 260 billion yen ($2.9 billion) full-year operating loss, almost four times analysts' estimates, as the global recession cuts sales of televisions and cameras. Weaker demand, the stronger yen and reorganization expenses led to the earnings shortfall," reports Bloomberg.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/bl ... ony-losses

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Jan 2009, 08:58

clv101 wrote:The pound has lost 43% against the Japanese Yen over the last six months. The price of Japanese imports are going to be a very visible impact of the economic crisis.

Yep. I'd been going to buy a new Nikon camera lens, but it's gone up from £290 to £360! Fortunately I found a compatible one from Sigma for £150 that I hadn't seen before, and will do the job, so I've ordered it quick before the price goes up...

PowerSwitch

Recession official

Recession official

Re: Recession official