Not your ordinary recession: New Year's outlook for UK

oilslick · Post by **oilslick** » 07 Jan 2009, 23:08

biffvernon wrote:Of course PO is not THE cause of the problem. Neither is Mr Brown. Both are just parts of the system. We need to have systems thinking for systems.

Brown's definitely more responsible than PO

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 08 Jan 2009, 08:41

That's not systems thinking. It's no good saying one bit is more responsible than another. Brown was only there doing what he was doing because he had the support of the system. Had he had a close encounter with an omnibus the system's resilience would not have been significantly perturbed and we would still be in approximately the same place.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 08 Jan 2009, 09:33

When the boss finds faults in the system, he ususally looks into it and tries to fix it. Brown did not do this. In fact he was the cause of some of the faults...... that has screwed this country - indefensible in my opinion.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 08 Jan 2009, 12:52

What did you expect? That Brown said "I've looked into the global financial system and concluded that it is unsustainable, just one ginormous ponzi scheme reliant on continued growth on a finite planet."

Look, I'm not defending Brown - just saying that he, personally, is no more to blame for the state of the world than millions of other people who supported, and continue to support, a system which may lead to the extinction of our species.

Now if you ask me what I think about Brown's silence on the Gaza situation....

chrisc · Post by **chrisc** » 08 Jan 2009, 12:56

biffvernon wrote:What did you expect? That Brown said "I've looked into the global financial system and concluded that it is unsustainable, just one ginormous ponzi scheme reliant on continued growth on a finite planet."

Look, I'm not defending Brown - just saying that he, personally, is no more to blame for the state of the world than millions of other people who supported, and continue to support, a system which may lead to the extinction of our species.

I agree, and it's not only our species -- it's most species

biffvernon wrote:Now if you ask me what I think about Brown's silence on the Gaza situation....

Craig Murray put it rather well I think: http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/ ... wn_is.html

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 08 Jan 2009, 13:03

biffvernon wrote:What did you expect? That Brown said "I've looked into the global financial system and concluded that it is unsustainable, just one ginormous ponzi scheme reliant on continued growth on a finite planet."

Yes.
Shall I send him that Money is Debt vid in case he hasn't got it yet?

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 08 Jan 2009, 13:58

biffvernon wrote:What did you expect? That Brown said "I've looked into the global financial system and concluded that it is unsustainable, just one ginormous ponzi scheme reliant on continued growth on a finite planet."

Look, I'm not defending Brown - just saying that he, personally, is no more to blame for the state of the world than millions of other people who supported, and continue to support, a system which may lead to the extinction of our species.

Now if you ask me what I think about Brown's silence on the Gaza situation....

Sorry Biff, I disagree my friend. I think he could have done something and should have done something. Of course he is more to blame tham millions of other people - he was chancellor of the Exchequer for a decade deciding and presiding over the financial well-being of the United Kingdom for 10 years! He set the budgets and tax rates, etc. etc. As Prime Minister he has overall responsibility for the governing of the country which includes its finances.

Of course, I accept that he had to operate within a certain environment, but to drive that environment into excess as he did is imo now unforgiveable. Where was the cautious expansion? Where was the money that should have been put aside for a rainy day? Where were the tax revenues from our oil and gas companies that should have been invested for the good of the country from the North Sea finds? No, I can't say he has not played a major role in the coming downfall of the UK.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 08 Jan 2009, 16:39

Ok, so just for the sake of discussion, let's assume that Brown is responsible and to blame for the whole shebang.

We might wonder what we could have done diferently over the last decade (with the condition that he had to keep his job), or more interestingly and importantly, what should he and Darling do now.

What, oh wise fellow-powerswitchers, should the government be doing over the next few months (again with the condition that they stay in power)?

happychicken · Post by **happychicken** » 08 Jan 2009, 17:16

Sadly, I think it may be too late to do anything about the economic mess.

Tweaking interest rates and reducing VAT and spouting hot air about creating jobs is all just trying to stop a main artery from bleeding using sticking plasters

(And by the way I'm more concerned about peak bees than peak oil

We might just about survive without oil, but we would definitely struggle to eat without bees)

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 08 Jan 2009, 20:50

What, oh wise fellow-powerswitchers, should the government be doing over the next few months (again with the condition that they stay in power)?

Cut taxes
People are defaulting on their mortgages, no shit, I spend more on NI, IC and CT than I do on my mortgage, home/contents insurance AND my gas and electricity bills, I could probably fit car insurance in as well.

No wonder I cant afford a to eco my home or shop anywhere but TESCO

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 08 Jan 2009, 21:29

DominicJ wrote:Cut taxes

Could they really cut them enough to make a significant difference? The 2.5% VAT change wasn't exactly enough to get everyone back in the shops. Surely they could only knock a few percent off other taxes at most, and although the extra money would be useful, it wouldn't make a huge difference.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 08 Jan 2009, 22:39

Why only cut by a few %?

Scrap VAT, "duty" and NI
IC 20% over 20k
CT 5%

Problem solved.
I'm sure it would give El Gordo problems paying off his client state, but thats his problem.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 08 Jan 2009, 22:45

Good questions Biff.

1. What could Brown have done since he became Prime Minster?
2. What should he do now?

Well put the fact that he didn't put money from the revenues in the good times aside (the way Norway are doing for instance) and accepting that he sold off half our Gold at rock bottom prices 8 or 9 years ago and accepting that he screwed up our pension industry a decade ago, then some things he could have done are as follows :-

1. He could have abolished the 5% VAT on all forms of heating and electricity. This would have really helped people in an area where everybody is experiencing extra burden.
2. He could have bumped up the tax free allowances everybody has before they start to pay tax. This would really have helped low-pay workers and families.
3. He could have encouraged real R&D and investment in renewable energy by reducing taxes in this area.
4. He could encourage new business start-ups by allowing them to pay no rates for the first 3 years.
5. He could put in place a national scheme to subsidise all forms of insulation for existing houses by say 50% or even 75%.
6. He could actually tell the truth and let the people of the country know that we have major problems ahead due to the imminent decline in oil.
7. He could announce a major investment in massively improving public transport - rail, bus, trams - everywhere. He could cut the costs of public transport and make it cheap - say a 75% reduction would make a big doifference. Get people out of single occupant journeys and into mass transport.

I am sure there is loads more, but that lot is uppermost in my mind.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 09 Jan 2009, 07:14

DominicJ wrote:Cut taxes

Can we try to stick to systems thinking. A simplistic 'cut taxes' (which of course everyone has always wanted since taxes were invented) needs to be set in the context of the impacts of the policy. How does the government cope with the reduced revenue? By increased borrowing? By reduced spending? By increasing the money supply?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 09 Jan 2009, 07:23

snow hope wrote:Well put the fact that he didn't put money from the revenues in the good times aside (the way Norway are doing for instance)

I don't recall a clamour from the electorate for such a policy at the time (Norway is an attractive but poor comparator - their per capita oil revenue made their position very much more favourable).

Your suggestions for future policy look as though they may be put in place at least to some degree and if we follow the lead from Obama's speech yesterday. But how much of it is sticking plaster?

The question remains whether such policies will be an attempt to patch up the present system or to make a transition to a really new world economy.