No Sun Spots/New Ice Age?

[Lamont]

Where have all the Sunspots gone? Could we be entering a new Maunder? http://www.spaceweather.com/

[MisterE]

Probably thats why we are all working hard to heat up the earth lol

[skeptik]

It happens. No big deal.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008 ... update.htm

"The longest minimum on record, the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, lasted an incredible 70 years. Sunspots were rarely observed and the solar cycle seemed to have broken down completely. The period of quiet coincided with the Little Ice Age, a series of extraordinarily bitter winters in Earth's northern hemisphere."

... purely coincidental.

[MisterE]

I guess also when we think in human years compared to the suns existance its a mere blink of an eye, if that

[Keela]

It happens. No big deal.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008 ... update.htm

"The longest minimum on record, the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, lasted an incredible 70 years. Sunspots were rarely observed and the solar cycle seemed to have broken down completely. The period of quiet coincided with the Little Ice Age, a series of extraordinarily bitter winters in Earth's northern hemisphere."

... purely coincidental.

It's interesting how this word is used. (Skeptic, I'm using your post only to throw this into the mix and not because I think you have used the word incorrectly! )

Something that happened = incident
Two things that happened together = coincident events

Using these origins, the word "coincidence" should mean simply that the events happened together. It should not refer to any judgement on whether there was a common cause or not.

However I have heard people say "There's no such thing as coincidence." This is usually in relation to a religious view that any event that happens simultaneously with another event was intended to do so - and therefore in their view the timing was not a coincidence because it was intentional.

Yet surely all events that coincide are coincidental events regardless of cause or correlation? It is up to us to clarify whether or not those events had any relationship to each other or whether they coincided due to chance. The word coincidence should remain neutral in terms of cause. However in common usage it is no longer used this way. The word is now taken to mean that there is no other connecting factor other than the time issue.

I just find it interesting....

Carry on!

[skeptik]

Using these origins, the word "coincidence" should mean simply that the events happened together. It should not refer to any judgement on whether there was a common cause or not.

In generally accepted usage it does though, Miss Picky.

10 out of 10 for thread drift!

[Keela]

That was my point.... generally accepted usage has deviated from the original meaning. You post just reminded me - I wasn't being picky of your post at all.

As for the thread drift accusation.....

[JohnB]

Are we about to witness the coincidence of someone's fist and someone else's face sharing the same space

[skeptik]

That was my point.... generally accepted usage has deviated from the original meaning.

That's part of how languages normally evolve. Shakespeare's full of examples. Words that we are familiar with but had subtly different meanings in his time, which you need to to be aware of in order to make full sense of what he's saying. A degree of 'translation' is needed even with English which is only a few hundred years old.

For instance 'presently' in current usage means 'soon' or 'in a little while'. In Shakespeare's time it meant 'straight away' or 'right now', a subtle but important meaning shift.

You post just reminded me - I wasn't being picky of your post at all.

Sorry. Don't mind me. I'm just naturally rude, though I try to keep it in a tight leash on the internet.

[Cabrone]

Back in 2006 New Scientist was talking about a sun spot crash giving us a temporary helping hand against AGW although they did add this caveat....

None of this means that we can stop worrying about global warming caused by emissions into the atmosphere. "The temperature of the Earth in the past few decades does not correlate with solar activity at all," Solanki says. He estimates that solar activity is responsible for only 30 per cent, at most, of the warming since 1970. The rest must be the result of man-made greenhouse gases, and a crash in solar activity won't do anything to get rid of them.

What might happen is that the sun gives the planet a welcome respite from the ravages of man-made climate change - though for how long, nobody knows. During the Little Ice Age, the fall in average global temperature is estimated to have been less than 1 ?C and lasted 70 years. The one before that persisted for 150 years, but a minor crash at the beginning of the 19th century lasted barely 30. For now, we will have to keep watching for falling sunspot numbers. "The deeper the crash, the longer it will last," Weiss says.

There is a dangerous flip side to this coin. If global warming does slow down or partially reverse with a sunspot crash, industrial polluters and reluctant nations could use it as a justification for turning their backs on pollution controls altogether, makingmatters worse in the long run. There is no room for complacency, Svalgaard warns: "If the Earth does cool during the next sunspot crash and we do nothing, when the sun's magnetic activity returns, global warming will return with a vengeance."

Link

Guess we'll just have to see what happens.

[Eternal Sunshine]

It happens. No big deal.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008 ... update.htm

"The longest minimum on record, the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, lasted an incredible 70 years. Sunspots were rarely observed and the solar cycle seemed to have broken down completely. The period of quiet coincided with the Little Ice Age, a series of extraordinarily bitter winters in Earth's northern hemisphere."

... purely coincidental.

One of my geography lecturers tells us that the Little Ice Age was probably caused by the ocean conveyor belt slowing down.

[RenewableCandy]

It happens. No big deal.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008 ... update.htm

"The longest minimum on record, the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, lasted an incredible 70 years.

One of my geography lecturers tells us that the Little Ice Age was probably caused by the ocean conveyor belt slowing down.

Whatever caused it, think of the consequences, at least in this part of the world. Scotland went bankrupt and had to join England in order to get bailed out ("parcel of rogues in a nation" and all that), BoE was founded (1694), Russian rulers decided they "needed" a west-facing port (St Petersburg, est. 1703), turn-of-the-century famine in France, start of serious exploration for the "new world" (look at it from an ordinary sailor's p.o.v.: you wouldn't set off into the unknown like that without at least some degree of desperation: and if you wouldn't, where would the explorers find their recruits?) etc etc...

[Lamont]

Blizzards shut down more than 1,000 village roads in Turkey
25 Dec 08 - Cold weather and heavy snowfall brought daily life to a standstill
in rural parts of Turkey, forcing closures of more than 1,000 village roads in
the country’s eastern regions.
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detay ... &bolum=101
Thanks to Marc Morano for this link


Record snowfall across Canada - 21 Dec 08 - This follows record snowfall last
year - but both of those facts are buried at the end of the article. Is this an attempt to
deceive the public? (Be sure to read the comments by climatologist Dr. Timothy
Ball at the end of the article.)
See Record snowfall across Canada


Severe cold wave to hit UK - 23 Dec 08 – According to Joe Bastardi of
Accuweather.com, the United Kingdom is looking at much colder weather
at the end of December that will carry well into January. “The most impressive
two- to four-week cold period of any recent winter for the continent on the
whole is on the way,” says Bastardi. “Patience, grasshopper, patience.”
See entire article:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastard ... ccuweather
Thanks to BenjaminNapier and John V. Kampen in Granada, Spain, for this link



Orange Alert as Cold Weather Sweeps South Across China - 22 Dec 08 - Weather
fronts from Siberia and Mongolia swept south across China over the weekend, sending
temperatures plummeting and bringing heavy snow across parts of the country, prompting
the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to issue orange warnings, advising residents
to prepare for a sharp drop in temperature, heavy snow and gale-force northerly winds.

See entire article by Steph Ball
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news ... news.shtml
Thanks to John Brown in Ardrossan, Scotland, for this link



Record-breaking lows in B.C. – More snow on the way - 21 Dec 08 - “Virtually the entire province was under some kind of winter weather warning last night -- whether it was snow, wind chill or blizzard.

“Vancouver recorded the coldest day in nearly 40 years on Friday when the mercury plunged to -15.2 C. "It was the coldest day since Jan. 29, 1969," said Environment Canada forecaster Greg Pearce. "It has been almost 40 years since it has been that cold."

Vancouver came within 2.6 degrees of breaking the all-time daily low of -17.8 C set on Jan. 14, 1950 and tied on Dec. 29, 1968.

Temperatures in Kelowna plunged to -30.6 C on Friday, shattering the old record of -25.7 C set in 1990, while Kamloops set a new mark of -26.4 C, just edging the old record of -25.6 C set in 1951. Meanwhile, Victoria’s low of -7.3 C on Friday fell just short of eclipsing the old record of -8 C.

See entire article by Stuart Hunter:
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1101465
Thanks to Ivan Idea for this link



Beijing's coldest December day in 57 years - 22 Dec 08 - Winter truly arrived in Beijing yesterday with the highest temperature of the day down to minus 8.8 ℃. Media reports say it was "the coldest day in December in the last 57 years." http://www.danwei.org/front_page_of_the ... winter.php
Thanks to Alan Caruba for this link



Snowstorms cause chaos across Europe's ski resorts - 18 Dec 08 - Ski resorts
across Europe - which have seen the best start to a winter ski season in Europe since
1974 - were forced to close temporarily this week after snowstorms brought chaos to
the region.

Almost a metre of snow fell overnight on Sunday sparking avalanche warnings in
many European resorts.

In Val d’Isere, France, skiers were trapped in the resort on Monday amid fears of
an avalanche on the road to Bourg-Saint-Maurice after 80cm (2½ feet) fell.

In Alagna, Italy, the resort was forced to close with more than a metre of fresh snow,
while in Zermatt, Switzerland, only four ski lifts were open after 80cm of snowfall. Saas
Fee was cut off for three days due to a high avalanche risk, but the road re-opened
today allowing cars and supplies into the resort.

More heavy snow is expected over the next few days.

See entire article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/trave ... sorts.html
Thanks to Daryl Irwin for this link



Northeast Siberia braces for extreme cold of -60C - 15 Dec 08 - Temperatures in the northeast Siberian republic of Yakutia could fall to minus 60C (minus 76F) in the next few days, the local meteorological service said Monday.

Weather in the town of Verkhoyansk dropped overnight to minus 53C (minus 63.4F), while in Oymyakon it reached minus 57C (minus 70.6F). It’s expected to drop even more.
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20081215/118857527.html



Heavy rains pound Italy - More rain on Thursday than usual for the entire month of December - 12 Dec 08 - Rome declared a state of emergency as the swollen Tiber river threatened to flood Friday and the death toll from the heavy rains battering much of Italy rose to four.

The Civil Protection Department said the Tiber had risen about 16 feet (5 meters) in the past two days and warned it might burst its banks.

On Thursday, more rain fell in Rome than the usual average for the entire month of December, city officials said.

On Mount Etna, eight boy scouts were rescued Friday after being trapped by a snowstorm at a refuge on the mountain's north slope at an altitude of 1,700 meters (5,577 feet).
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081212/ap_ ... dc9pGSDidH SjOvUQYPLBIF
Thanks to Luis F. Chang for this link



Record snowfall in southern Austria - 6½ feet of snow in 48 hours
12 Dec 08 - In the Carinthia province, the heaviest snowfall in the last 80 years
was recorded, as up to 2 metres (6½ feet) of snow fell over the last 48 hours.

Emergency services were having a difficult time getting through to villages to
repair damaged electricity lines, Austrian media reported.

Train lines running to the Italian towns of Udine and San Candido were
blocked by trees http://www.enews20.com/news_Record_snow ... 14969.html
Thanks to Clay Olson for this link



UK Chill: 'Suddenly we seem to be facing a Siberian freeze' - 4 Dec 08 - Arctic
winds, snow and frosts have come in such a blast this winter that the bookmakers report
record numbers of bets on a white Christmas so early in December.
See Suddenly we seem to be facing a Siberian freeze
.
.

[Ben]

I don't fancy facng a "Little Ice Age" with fossil fuels running out ... not in my draughty old Victorian house!

Where's that aerosol?

[Andy Hunt]

Joe Bastardi of
Accuweather.com

Erm . . . are you sure this is real?!