Gordon Brown talks bollocks on Peak Oil

[careful_eugene]

Try this

http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=YW1M ... #PPA471,M1

Very basically when drilling into a new reservoir you release some pressure (flow the well) then shut it in and measure the build up of pressure against time. Plot the log of (Tp+dT)/dT against pressure and you can extend the straight line section to (Tp+dT)/dT = 1 and it will give you the initial pressure of the reservoir given infinite boundary.

So knowing the pressure plus the volume of the reservoir, the permeability, porosity, drive mechanism...etc..etc... you can calculate reserves. Use this info with a recovery program (that normally gets forgotten about 2 mins after you open the wells) and you get the estimates recoverable reserves

So you list those reserves on the stock market and the shares go up. It takes a few hundred million dollars to get those numbers so look how attractive the following scenario is

A company invents a new method of increasing the % recovery form your existing field. Implementation only costs a few hundred million but even before you put it into action you can list your assets as increased by a huge factor. Companies during the 90s made a fortune by re evaluation reserves for companies so they could re-list them on the stock market

Shell got found out and had to downgrade their assets 27% remember that? All other oil companies saw the resulting slide in their shares and didn't own up.

Cheers

Thanks for that, this may be a bit dense but why would the pressure increase?

[careful_eugene]

See. I told you this page was more illuminating. But your computer needs to display the Chinese character set.

And chinese characters would be helpful how? (I'm not Chinese nor can I read or speak chinese) but thanks anyway.

[ziggy12345]

The oil and gas under pressure in the reservoir has taken time to accumulate and the pressure is the same across the reservoir. (increasing in depth due to hydrostatic pressure)

The oil and gas is contained in the rock like a porous sandstone so it takes a pressure differential for it to flow. If you drill a hole in the rock and flow out the oil and gas the pressure in the immediate vicinity of the hole is reduced. This is called a drawdown

Now shut in the flow (normally at the bottom or as close to the rock as possible) and the oil flows from the surrounding rock and increases the pressure near the hole until the pressure is the same across the reservoir. This is called the build up.

A lot of information about the reservoir can be gleaned in this way using some fancy maths, Horner plot being one with type curve analysis and others. Usually all the donkey work is now done using software such as Sapphire.

[RGR]

Lets take one thing at a time then as it get complicated.

Can you show me where is the data for the last decent oil decline? I'm not talking about problems with supply due to an imposed embargo, I mean a shortage due to supply shortfalls?

Cheers

[RGR]

Very basically when drilling into a new reservoir you release some pressure (flow the well) then shut it in and measure the build up of pressure against time. Plot the log of (Tp+dT)/dT against pressure and you can extend the straight line section to (Tp+dT)/dT = 1 and it will give you the initial pressure of the reservoir given infinite boundary.

[RGR]

Try this
Thanks for that, this may be a bit dense but why would the pressure increase?

[ziggy12345]

Lets take one thing at a time then as it get complicated.

Can you show me where is the data for the last decent oil decline? I'm not talking about problems with supply due to an imposed embargo, I mean a shortage due to supply shortfalls?

Cheers

The last decent decline in global oil production started right around 1979-80 or so. Various countries and geographical areas have also shown consistent declines, Saudi Arabia if I recall correctly was just hammered between about 1980 and 1986.

But none of those have to do with shortages or supply shortfalls, and that isn't happening today either.

I must agree I dont see a shortage of oil supplies because even the hint of one would drive prices through the roof and people would be queuing around the block for gas. So whats your take on why oil production has remained flat for the last couple of years? If you add up the total energy from oil and gas has the total been increasing?

Cheers

[RGR]

Can you show me where is the data for the last decent oil decline? I mean a shortage due to supply shortfalls?

Cheers

The last decent decline in global oil production started right around 1979-80 or so.

But none of those have to do with shortages or supply shortfalls, and that isn't happening today either.

I must agree I dont see a shortage of oil supplies because even the hint of one would drive prices through the roof and people would be queuing around the block for gas. So whats your take on why oil production has remained flat for the last couple of years? If you add up the total energy from oil and gas has the total been increasing?

Cheers

Oil production ran into its infrastructure defined upper limit, you said so yourself. Sufficient excess capacity disappeared this past summer.

As far as total energy of oil and gas, or even fossil fuels in general, thats an entirely different issue. From a technical standpoint, I suppose you just add the energy content of all crude produced to the energy content of all natural gas produced in a given timeframe and the sum is whatever it is. But they are used in such different ways I'm not certain the sum means anything.

[biffvernon]

See. I told you this page was more illuminating. But your computer needs to display the Chinese character set.

And chinese characters would be helpful how? (I'm not Chinese nor can I read or speak chinese) but thanks anyway.

Well actually, I Googled for Horner plot but accidently got Google Images. The picture near the bottom of the Chinese post seemed to sum things up adequately, but if anyone here can read Chinese it might be interesting to know what the caption says.

[RenewableCandy]

See. I told you this page was more illuminating. But your computer needs to display the Chinese character set.

And chinese characters would be helpful how? (I'm not Chinese nor can I read or speak chinese) but thanks anyway.

Well actually, I Googled for Horner plot but accidently got Google Images. The picture near the bottom of the Chinese post seemed to sum things up adequately, but if anyone here can read Chinese it might be interesting to know what the caption says.

It's not Chinese, it's Korean. Unless my computer puts up Korean characters by mistake...

[careful_eugene]

The oil and gas under pressure in the reservoir has taken time to accumulate and the pressure is the same across the reservoir. (increasing in depth due to hydrostatic pressure)

The oil and gas is contained in the rock like a porous sandstone so it takes a pressure differential for it to flow. If you drill a hole in the rock and flow out the oil and gas the pressure in the immediate vicinity of the hole is reduced. This is called a drawdown

Now shut in the flow (normally at the bottom or as close to the rock as possible) and the oil flows from the surrounding rock and increases the pressure near the hole until the pressure is the same across the reservoir. This is called the build up.

A lot of information about the reservoir can be gleaned in this way using some fancy maths, Horner plot being one with type curve analysis and others. Usually all the donkey work is now done using software such as Sapphire.

Thanks for that, presumably the pressure will always reduce after the first time it is drilled and measured.

[Ippoippo]

And chinese characters would be helpful how? (I'm not Chinese nor can I read or speak chinese) but thanks anyway.

Well actually, I Googled for Horner plot but accidently got Google Images. The picture near the bottom of the Chinese post seemed to sum things up adequately, but if anyone here can read Chinese it might be interesting to know what the caption says.

It's not Chinese, it's Korean. Unless my computer puts up Korean characters by mistake...

Defo Korean... and I suspect that helps none of us here

[RGR]

Thanks for that, presumably the pressure will always reduce after the first time it is drilled and measured.

Not always. Strong water drives and man made pressure maintenance regimes interfere with the reservoir behaving as a simple tank. This does not apply to most unconventional reservoirs.

[RevdTess]

From that page ... I expect this is how RGR feels most of the time :
http://cfs6.tistory.com/upload_control/ ... AwMS5naWY=

[skeptik]

I'd vote for that

Trouble is you'd be in a small minority. Unless theres a real crisis going on *RIGHT NOW* which demands action , its easier to do nothing and lie about the future if you want to get re-elected.

It's a bit of a poser all right.

And if the govt continues bailing out the banks rather than bankrupting them, which it should be doing, we're going to end up as Reykjavik-on-Thames after a currency collapse, and not be able to afford any sort of response.
http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2008/1 ... risis.html