Hello everyone,
Aaron from peakoil.com here.
Just wanted to reach out and say it's good to see you guys talking this thing out.
After 2 years of working to help educate about depletion, I'm still amazed it isn't headline news everyday; everywhere.
But PO has seen a ground-swell of exposure, and a growing wealth of discourse these last 24 months as well.
Perhaps together we will make a difference...
(Sorry to hear of your recent problems on the site - let us know if we can help)
Aaron
How did you find out about PO?
Moderator: Peak Moderation
Gonna get bad everywhere I think.I don't think we can over-expose this problem for sure. Lots of very differing views on PO.com - things might get pretty bad over in the US due to the high level of addiction to the black gold.....
What's that saying?
When America sneezes the world catches cold.
...or some such.
Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice Doggie",
until you can find a rock.
until you can find a rock.
By reading Dennis Meadows "The Limits to Growth" in 1976 while at university and thinking about it. Not called as such in the text but some of the graph shapes are very similar to a Hubbert curve.
At this time North Sea was just starting to come online big time. If we were having to drill out in the middle of the ocean to maintain supply it seemed obvious that one day oil output would peak and decline as suggested by the graphs in Meadows book. Natural resource depletion, part of the course I was doing, and a Geology A level - I had the basics of petroleum geology and the finite nature of non-renewable resources in my head prior to reading Meadoiws - provided the background for this rumination.
In 1976 I was thinking that oil would peak 'sometime in the middle of the 21st' century and that we'd probably have moon bases and be getting most of our power from fusion generators by the year 2000, so it would not be a problem.
The future isnt what it used to be.
At this time North Sea was just starting to come online big time. If we were having to drill out in the middle of the ocean to maintain supply it seemed obvious that one day oil output would peak and decline as suggested by the graphs in Meadows book. Natural resource depletion, part of the course I was doing, and a Geology A level - I had the basics of petroleum geology and the finite nature of non-renewable resources in my head prior to reading Meadoiws - provided the background for this rumination.
In 1976 I was thinking that oil would peak 'sometime in the middle of the 21st' century and that we'd probably have moon bases and be getting most of our power from fusion generators by the year 2000, so it would not be a problem.
The future isnt what it used to be.
Well i've decided to post here, a little later than I should've.
Anyways, I always realised Oil would run out. Even though i'm 33 now, as far back as I sort of remember about 5, I used to ask my DAD "What will happen when we run out of?", of course he never really had an answer, except to say "We use water to power cars by then."
Well the Oil issue as always plagued my mind, but following the Petrol price demos of 2000, it was brought home to me again. I never powered down though. Instead I bought a 6.6 litre Pontiac Trans-Am in 2003. I always loved these cars since I watched "Smokey and the Bandit". Well my thoughts were still, "if we run out of oil, then we'll just ride bikes", this seems to be most peoples attitudes.
Life carried on as normal. Then the failed petrol demo's of 2005 brought about a programme on Nick@Night on HallamFM, the host Nick asked if the depletion of Oil would be the downfall of Civilisation?
Well I began to do a little research and I found out the seriousness of hitting the "Hubbert's Peak". At first I scared myself, then I panicked and created a amatuer website. This website helped me to find this site. Following this innitial pannick, I began reading books and other websites. At first I tried to feel Optimistic, but the more I learnt the more Pessimistic I became.
I became more and more involved in Peak Oil, to the point I also became dissilusioned, because of how I feel some people are trying to make a profit out of this future crises. I have not allowed this dissalusion to put me off, of my own personal wake up call. It has made me wary of the intentions of Peak Oil awareness organizations. I'm looking more at the bigger picture than my own personal survival, so this keeps me going.
What I believe to be the correct thing to do, is to Powerdown. Don't be selfish by trying to create your own family survival unit, you'll only create yourself more problems.
My advice is to do what i'm doing, organise local meetings, get others interested and involved. This way you'll create the loacalized lifeboats of society, that will help keep us surviving as civilised groups.
Excuse my Grammer, i'm still learning
Anyways, I always realised Oil would run out. Even though i'm 33 now, as far back as I sort of remember about 5, I used to ask my DAD "What will happen when we run out of?", of course he never really had an answer, except to say "We use water to power cars by then."
Well the Oil issue as always plagued my mind, but following the Petrol price demos of 2000, it was brought home to me again. I never powered down though. Instead I bought a 6.6 litre Pontiac Trans-Am in 2003. I always loved these cars since I watched "Smokey and the Bandit". Well my thoughts were still, "if we run out of oil, then we'll just ride bikes", this seems to be most peoples attitudes.
Life carried on as normal. Then the failed petrol demo's of 2005 brought about a programme on Nick@Night on HallamFM, the host Nick asked if the depletion of Oil would be the downfall of Civilisation?
Well I began to do a little research and I found out the seriousness of hitting the "Hubbert's Peak". At first I scared myself, then I panicked and created a amatuer website. This website helped me to find this site. Following this innitial pannick, I began reading books and other websites. At first I tried to feel Optimistic, but the more I learnt the more Pessimistic I became.
I became more and more involved in Peak Oil, to the point I also became dissilusioned, because of how I feel some people are trying to make a profit out of this future crises. I have not allowed this dissalusion to put me off, of my own personal wake up call. It has made me wary of the intentions of Peak Oil awareness organizations. I'm looking more at the bigger picture than my own personal survival, so this keeps me going.
What I believe to be the correct thing to do, is to Powerdown. Don't be selfish by trying to create your own family survival unit, you'll only create yourself more problems.
My advice is to do what i'm doing, organise local meetings, get others interested and involved. This way you'll create the loacalized lifeboats of society, that will help keep us surviving as civilised groups.
Excuse my Grammer, i'm still learning
Enjoy yourself with the time remaining, I've decided I'm going to.
I was introduced to PO by Jackie Carpenter, then leading Energy 21. I went to talk with her about my idea for an eco-hostel as she had mentioned about trying to get together a group of people to pool their house equity and set up a 'lifeboat' in Cornwall. I figured I might be able to include my tourism business in there somewhere. Jackie showed me Powerdown and I was hooked.
What I don't understand is that I have spent my whole post Uni life in the sustainable energy biz and not once came across the PO issue. Ten years plugging away helping the government to spread its limp energy efficiency and climate change messages via EST and the like, only to be greeted constantly with 'it'll take a long time to pay back though, won't it?' day in day out when all the time there was a thundering great threat of PO that would change peoples lives for ever, anytime soon.
I'm glad to be enlightened now, though. Personally, I say 'bring it on' and let's see what we can do to get through this. My fear is that PO has already occured and that the process of rich governments fighting their battles to keep us in the manner to which we have become accustomed will continue apace with the majority turning a blind eye, for quite a few years yet. We'll see.
Ben
What I don't understand is that I have spent my whole post Uni life in the sustainable energy biz and not once came across the PO issue. Ten years plugging away helping the government to spread its limp energy efficiency and climate change messages via EST and the like, only to be greeted constantly with 'it'll take a long time to pay back though, won't it?' day in day out when all the time there was a thundering great threat of PO that would change peoples lives for ever, anytime soon.
I'm glad to be enlightened now, though. Personally, I say 'bring it on' and let's see what we can do to get through this. My fear is that PO has already occured and that the process of rich governments fighting their battles to keep us in the manner to which we have become accustomed will continue apace with the majority turning a blind eye, for quite a few years yet. We'll see.
Ben
"Hi I'm AllanH & I'm a peak oil-aholic"
Sorry, couldn't help it after reading through all the posts on this tread. I found out about peak oil I think maybe 2 years ago after reading an article on www.disinfo.com after that I bought & read "The partys' over". I was convinced by the book & got another one, (can't remember the name - it's by Deffeyes & has a nodding donkey on the cover). After that I made a few wee precautions (few survival stuff, stocking up on water, read up on survival books, when technology fails, herbs,etc) but didn't do much else as I figured somethings always going to get you it's just a question of whether its peak oil, climate change, nuclear war, the newest pandemic or [PICK GLOBAL AFFLICTION OF YOUR CHOICE] that gets us & messes up our cosy modern civilisation. I was probably being complacent but there wasn't much else I could do to prepare as I didn't have my own place then or much freedom to arrange things. At that time I couldn't do much to reduce my energy usage & didn't feel inclined to because unless the whole world does likewise it's not going to make any difference (I did use low energy bulbs, though that was a cost thing not an energy issue). Since I am taking more steps to reduce my energy usage but again its cost not an attempt to push back the peak by individual action.
I don't think I was particularly shocked by PO, or that it took a great deal for me to accept it, I just didn't rush into massive preparations & though I was aware of peak oil & its effects on global politics & economy I didn't do much else. Though I did change a few of my investments to benefit from PO/avoid its worse effects. I think in the back of my mind I sort of welcomed the PO crash (at least it's reasonable predictable unlike climate change/war, etc) or at least didn't mind it as I've always been against modern life on general principles (don't own a tv, computer or mobile phone, drive a car, never bother with fashion & can't stand advertising or busy crowded cities unless I'm walking away from them) & would quite enjoy a simpler life (though I'd miss the ability to travel globally, music & ready access to information & books via the internet) with a lower level of technology & fewer car fumes & christmas lights. Though it sounds terrible to say I'm not too fussed about the major upheaval/death/starvation/resource wars likely to result from PO as I've considered a major cutting back of the human population to be inevitable for a long time (Malthus was right, he just got the dates wrong). I figure if some of us can learn to live together in sustainable communities that's great & by far the best option (& I'd love to help out in making this work) but not everyone can, or will want to, so get as prepared as you can while you can just incase the government or your neighbours have other ideas (they will) or human nature takes hold (panic, greed & selfishness coupled with a healthy propensity for violence).
Recently I got my own house & have begun to make some prepatations for PO (though not enough by far & haven't met anyone else, outside of this forum, who shares my views on PO) & I searched the net for some more info. I found powerswitch & find the site very useful & informative so decided to stay. Now I'm concentrating (as much as I can - enjoy cheap travel, the internet, music, etc while you've got it) on getting my garden converted to growing my own food, stocking up on handy items for post peak, getting my house prepared (planning solar hot water heating & new insulation) & other peak oily things.
AllanH
Sorry, couldn't help it after reading through all the posts on this tread. I found out about peak oil I think maybe 2 years ago after reading an article on www.disinfo.com after that I bought & read "The partys' over". I was convinced by the book & got another one, (can't remember the name - it's by Deffeyes & has a nodding donkey on the cover). After that I made a few wee precautions (few survival stuff, stocking up on water, read up on survival books, when technology fails, herbs,etc) but didn't do much else as I figured somethings always going to get you it's just a question of whether its peak oil, climate change, nuclear war, the newest pandemic or [PICK GLOBAL AFFLICTION OF YOUR CHOICE] that gets us & messes up our cosy modern civilisation. I was probably being complacent but there wasn't much else I could do to prepare as I didn't have my own place then or much freedom to arrange things. At that time I couldn't do much to reduce my energy usage & didn't feel inclined to because unless the whole world does likewise it's not going to make any difference (I did use low energy bulbs, though that was a cost thing not an energy issue). Since I am taking more steps to reduce my energy usage but again its cost not an attempt to push back the peak by individual action.
I don't think I was particularly shocked by PO, or that it took a great deal for me to accept it, I just didn't rush into massive preparations & though I was aware of peak oil & its effects on global politics & economy I didn't do much else. Though I did change a few of my investments to benefit from PO/avoid its worse effects. I think in the back of my mind I sort of welcomed the PO crash (at least it's reasonable predictable unlike climate change/war, etc) or at least didn't mind it as I've always been against modern life on general principles (don't own a tv, computer or mobile phone, drive a car, never bother with fashion & can't stand advertising or busy crowded cities unless I'm walking away from them) & would quite enjoy a simpler life (though I'd miss the ability to travel globally, music & ready access to information & books via the internet) with a lower level of technology & fewer car fumes & christmas lights. Though it sounds terrible to say I'm not too fussed about the major upheaval/death/starvation/resource wars likely to result from PO as I've considered a major cutting back of the human population to be inevitable for a long time (Malthus was right, he just got the dates wrong). I figure if some of us can learn to live together in sustainable communities that's great & by far the best option (& I'd love to help out in making this work) but not everyone can, or will want to, so get as prepared as you can while you can just incase the government or your neighbours have other ideas (they will) or human nature takes hold (panic, greed & selfishness coupled with a healthy propensity for violence).
Recently I got my own house & have begun to make some prepatations for PO (though not enough by far & haven't met anyone else, outside of this forum, who shares my views on PO) & I searched the net for some more info. I found powerswitch & find the site very useful & informative so decided to stay. Now I'm concentrating (as much as I can - enjoy cheap travel, the internet, music, etc while you've got it) on getting my garden converted to growing my own food, stocking up on handy items for post peak, getting my house prepared (planning solar hot water heating & new insulation) & other peak oily things.
AllanH
LATOC = Life After The Oil Crash. Matt Savinar's site: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
A somewhat bleak rendering of the future of mankind, but he also covers all the major aspects of the PO problem quite succinctly.
A somewhat bleak rendering of the future of mankind, but he also covers all the major aspects of the PO problem quite succinctly.
hia,
was introduced to peak oil from the other doom and gloomsters over at housepricecrash.co.uk. see a few familiar faces here - hello!!!
shit me up for a few months then ignored it all for a few more.
believing it might be true was a bit much for my little brain ....
keep coming back here though to keep an eye on whats going on. once its in there - its a bit hard to shake off init????
was introduced to peak oil from the other doom and gloomsters over at housepricecrash.co.uk. see a few familiar faces here - hello!!!
shit me up for a few months then ignored it all for a few more.
believing it might be true was a bit much for my little brain ....
keep coming back here though to keep an eye on whats going on. once its in there - its a bit hard to shake off init????
Hi dunroamin.
Welcome. Not all of us are doomsters
Hope you can help us spread the PO word.
Welcome. Not all of us are doomsters
Check this out: Peak Oil Grief Cycleits a bit hard to shake off init????
Hope you can help us spread the PO word.
"If the complexity of our economies is impossible to sustain [with likely future oil supply], our best hope is to start to dismantle them before they collapse." George Monbiot
Discovering PO
I have always been interested in current affairs and geopolitics, I cannot quite remember how but I stumbled on LATOC, and it really hit hard. For a few weeks afterwards I expanded my reading (ASPO peakoil.com energybulletin etc) and found myself swinging from real dread and fear about how thing might go, to finding some article on possible energy (like Hydrates) and thinking 'we will work it out nothing will change'.
This was about 10 months ago now, since then i have read many books on it, but also looked deeper into the politics. Reading people like Chomsky, and trying to fit the actions of American in the past to the likely actions of the future. This gives some fairly scary results but I feel I am now in control of my fear and am looking to put it to productive means.
I have also come to realise that the shear number of variables is so large, that making any kind of accurate prediction is impossible. You can only predict rough changes, which leave plenty of scope for other influences. I think accepting this uncertainty is one of the hardest things I have had to deal with, I have a fairly scientific mind and I look for clear answers. But finding these is next to impossible.
Since learning about PO it has changed my life, the way I look at the world, the way I see my future, what I want to do in the future. But I think the single biggest change has been how I value what I have and what choice and freedom I can exercise. This has also made me realise i need to do something, what? i dont know, but i do know i need to be a positive force and not mearly a by stander.
This was about 10 months ago now, since then i have read many books on it, but also looked deeper into the politics. Reading people like Chomsky, and trying to fit the actions of American in the past to the likely actions of the future. This gives some fairly scary results but I feel I am now in control of my fear and am looking to put it to productive means.
I have also come to realise that the shear number of variables is so large, that making any kind of accurate prediction is impossible. You can only predict rough changes, which leave plenty of scope for other influences. I think accepting this uncertainty is one of the hardest things I have had to deal with, I have a fairly scientific mind and I look for clear answers. But finding these is next to impossible.
Since learning about PO it has changed my life, the way I look at the world, the way I see my future, what I want to do in the future. But I think the single biggest change has been how I value what I have and what choice and freedom I can exercise. This has also made me realise i need to do something, what? i dont know, but i do know i need to be a positive force and not mearly a by stander.
-
PowerSwitchJames
- Posts: 934
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: London
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