grinu wrote:
How about we now talk about something more ridiculous than the easter bunny and santa - 'peak oil is nothing to worry about'.
I talk about it all the time....others don't tend to like this particular conversation because it makes more sense than "run and hide! we're all gonna nuke each other over oil! we'll all starve! civilization is over!"
Admittedly, those are more American hysterics than Powerswitchers, but among your group are some which buy into portions of that angle without fessing up to the things which look obviously stupid ( as defined by Ruppert, Savinar, LATOC, that particular band of happy elves ).
I'm not as pessimistic as Olduvai, it clearly is theory full of non-sequiturs,
but society can go backwards very rapidly and very far when things go wrong. Britain went from a Roman colony with a very educated ruling class and advanced technology with mass-production and highly specialised and stratified heirarchy back to illiterate farmers in wooden huts in about 200 years.
I'm not saying it will happen this time, but it has happened in the past.
RalphW wrote:I'm not as pessimistic as Olduvai, it clearly is theory full of non-sequiturs,
but society can go backwards very rapidly and very far when things go wrong.
I am extremely unhappy with Olduvai as anything other than a bad joke.
Last edited by RGR on 29 Dec 2008, 00:45, edited 1 time in total.
RalphW wrote:Britain went from a Roman colony with a very educated ruling class and advanced technology with mass-production and highly specialised and stratified heirarchy back to illiterate farmers in wooden huts in about 200 years.
During the Roman occupation the great majority of the population were probably illiterate farmers in wooden huts. Some of them may have been pleased to see the back of the former ruling class.
biffvernon wrote:During the Roman occupation the great majority of the population were probably illiterate farmers in wooden huts. Some of them may have been pleased to see the back of the former ruling class.
I do agree with the point you're making though
Is that so different from today if you look at the global population as a whole? OK only one third of the population is now illiterate hut/slum dwellers, but that number is going to increase again.
snow hope wrote:$59.39 down 4.8%
FTSE 4266 down 3.1%
Dow 8640 down 2.6%
£ = $1.53, €1.22
I wouldnt be too sad , the worst that may happen in Nov is a test of the Oct lows in the indexes and then there should be a decent rally for a few months (worth selling into)
SILVERHARP2 wrote:seems like oil wants to head down to the 07 low which was 56.9 , it went below 58 today
Yes don't forget it's only 12 months or so since we saw these kind of prices.
In another 12 months we could be back up at $150+.
It’s a fascinating point , but I am not sure it has to go back to $150 anytime soon, looking at markets long term , the discounting mechanism called price can discount a hell of a lot, and maybe $150 discounted the worst PO scenario given the demand structure that the market existed in 08 , now that it looks like a global recession is happening now which will be a 5 to 10 year event , a PO discounted price in this scenario could be a range from $40-$100
Commodities are dead and will be in a bear market for years to come, it would be unprecedented for oil to escape this, PO or no PO.
Given that the (relatively small number of) Yanks consume roughly 25% of the world's oil, a low price for it may inspire confidence in them. They have their vehicles, despite sales of new going down and running them is a tiny part of a vehicle's expense. Fuel for them is still extremely cheap and likely getting cheaper still, so they presumably will be driving - and thus consuming - just as much oil as before. Even an unemployed person can afford to drive, if s/he has a vehicle. Just odd thoughts.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
emordnilap wrote: Fuel for them is still extremely cheap and likely getting cheaper still, so they presumably will be driving - and thus consuming - just as much oil as before. Even an unemployed person can afford to drive, if s/he has a vehicle. Just odd thoughts.
off the top of my head I would say there are 3 types of driving, commuting, leisure and "pottering about" , me thinks the first 2 are going to get hammered, unemployed people dont commute & struggling families wont drive 100 miles to their nearest 6 Flags theme park.
To the best of my knowledge the US will also be entering a distinct demographic change from 09/10 which would seem to slow down growth at the least?
