Are we at the Peak? Debate between economist and peakist

[MaxWahlter]

<P> So Peak of Oil is here then?

Not actually, what we are seeing is a reduction in oil production, but due to lack of investment, not of actual oil in the ground potentially able to be pumped up so we are awash of the stuff.

<P> But wait a minute.... this investment you are talking about, that's like the sort of investment to get at the "difficult" oil, and that warrants prices over $100 Dollars

Ah at last you Peakers are understanding the laws of economics

<P> And you deniers are admitting the Peak of EASY oil

Well as an economist I understand the Peak of Oil to be when you can't get more out of the ground.
Based on that, you are wrong that we have reached Peak because I could invest billions in some of the fields found but not yet exploited and pump up oil.

<P> Yeah but you wouldn't make any money on it so its as good as Peak oil

I thought you Peakists wanted to talk about PHYSICAL limits, not economic ones

<P> Let talk physical limits. Based on figures of what has been found, if we pump at today's rates we will reach the long tail of next to nothing ( like Drakes well) in about 30 years.

That is not counting all the oil we are going to find though, during that period

<P> But no-one is looking as there is no investment so we aren't going to find any. You said that yourself. Ergo de facto PEAK.

So the Physical Peak Oil isn't going to happen is it? You peakists DO complicate things. We are back where we started, the Peak of production we are seeing now is a factor of investment, not physical limits according to you.

<P> Wait a minute! you economists have a way of confusing the issue! The Peak of exploration was in 1968. we are finding less and less oil, so if we go on like this it will only prolong depletion slightly. And anyway, if the world does not pump more, there will be a world recession.

Oh you don't believe that rubbish that de-coupling of oil and the economy is impossible. Anything is possible. You should spend more time reading books like the Secret than poring over production and finds data. Get a life

<P> So if I believe it is possible to keep increasing oil it is so?

Yes! you must use your imagination more... IMAGINE all that oil that has not been found, feeeel it with your senses.

<P> So if I IMAGINE Peak Oil then that can be true too?

Of course, but this is the point. People like you are negative and do nothing good for the economy. We, on the other hand have a positive, optimistic outlook. Which would you rather vote for?

<P> Well actually.... neither the optimist nor the pessimist. I'd like to vote for the realist but I don't see any around.

Look on the bright side, we are about to see decoupling.

<P> Hmmmm. Oil prices are low, due to low demand, and a whole load of countries are heading for recession. You are saying that's a coincidence?

Yes. As we see it a lot of greedy people fooled the system, nothing to do with oil.

<P> Hang on a minute! One of the main tenets of Economics is that people act in self interest and this benefits all. Now your saying we are stuck up the frigging sh1t creek without a paddle due to just the people who should be creating this wonderful world for us to benefit from!

Dear me. You Peakists have such crude language. This is meant to be a refined debate. These people you refer to... Carnegie bosses, Enron, Lehman Brothers, they may have overstepped the mark a little in their eagerness to make money and prosperity for us all, but hey, that is the American way. I am happy banks are being shored up. what will happen now is they will be doing the same thing, driven buy just that same creative, egotistical drive, but in a slightly more regulated way, and everyone will be happy.

<P> Hold on a minute... more regulated way..... that will make money more expensive as it requires better risk handling and the people who pay for that are the ordinary consumers. WE are going to be less well off whilst they are going to be better off with less risk!

You peakists who are not economists are really bitter people. The people who work in the banking system are the cleverest and brightest and they create so much wealth they deserve to be rewarded. Don't worry it will trickle down to you!

<P> And you mean that when they screw up they should be supported too? Because they are so valuable?

They made themselves irreplaceable. You really have to admire how clever they are!

<P> Hmmmm. I CAN admire the cleverness... but all that talent going into something that adds almost no value?

Who is the sad sorry bastard - the one creating more money to trickle down the system or the one talking to himself in a schizophrenic way about the economic vs the peakist approach. You don't actually think anyone is going to READ this post do you?

[Andy Hunt]

This all sounds very familiar somehow . . .

[ecoworrier]

Sounds just like the last APPGOPO meeting "Peak Oil-How close are we?"