That 'R' word

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 26 Oct 2008, 09:09

Rasputin69 wrote: Like all of my posts, this is mainly me rambling so all I ask is some general thouughts on that 'R' word: are Britons taking it seriously enough; is the media scare-mongering; indeed, are we not taking it seriously enough?

The R word is a given and has been for some time. The mainstream media isnt scare-mongering, with a few notable exceptions its about 9 months behind the curve. It's the D words that we should now be worrying about.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 27 Oct 2008, 11:55

Totally_Baffled wrote: What timescales are you expecting 25%+ unemployment Ludwig?

3 years is my guesstimate. In the Great Depression in the US it took 4 years to reach that level:

http://encarta.msn.com/media_461546193/ ... ssion.html

But I feel there are so many jobs now that are basically pointless that it will be quicker this time, and of course those in the know, know that there is no "other side" this time, so I think there is a real danger that total panic will set in and accelerate the whole process.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 27 Oct 2008, 12:16

If you are correct Ludwig (as I fear you are), I think it could be even quicker.

Think dominoes...... and falling

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 27 Oct 2008, 12:28

snow hope wrote:If you are correct Ludwig (as I fear you are), I think it could be even quicker. Think dominoes...... and falling

I associate to the Chernobyl disaster. It took years to develop, but the final events went very fast.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 27 Oct 2008, 12:33

snow hope wrote:If you are correct Ludwig (as I fear you are), I think it could be even quicker. Think dominoes...... and falling

Well to be honest I was going to say "within 2 years" but I have nothing to base that on except gut pessimism so I thought I'd check with what happened in the 1930s :\

Mark · Post by **Mark** » 27 Oct 2008, 15:00

Central Government obtains data on business performance from a variety of sources.

One of the main avenues is through surveys conducted by Trade Associations and the Chambers of Commerce.

For example, these are the highlights from the latest survey by Greater Manchester Chamber:
http://www.gmchamber.co.uk/news/53

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 27 Oct 2008, 15:32

Mark wrote: For example, these are the highlights from the latest survey by Greater Manchester Chamber:
http://www.gmchamber.co.uk/news/53

Hmm.. things have been moving so fast recently that 6th October constitutes ancient history.

happychicken · Post by **happychicken** » 27 Oct 2008, 15:38

I don't think way that the current crisis plays out can in any way be predicted from history since, to use that horrible media word, this crisis is "unprecedented".

Thanks to our connected globalised world with its computers and telecommuniactions which help to fan the flames of every little bit of anxiety to spread like wildfire from stock exchange to stock exchange at the press of a button, we have a reached a stage in our "civilisation" that we cannot compare to anything that has happened before.

We have an over-populated, over-stretched, under-resourced world which is rapidly reaching a tipping point of no return.

No matter what spin the media put on it and whichever way you look at it, the facts speak for themselves and things aren't looking good.

Mark · Post by **Mark** » 27 Oct 2008, 16:28

Agreed.

Unforutunately there's a time-lag in getting surveys sent/returned/compiled/analysed/published etc.

That's why its taken quite a while to 'officially' confirm R, when we all know its already been here for quite a while.
At the moment, it looks like we're experiencing the start of D, but it will take a few months for the situation to be confirmed with data/statistics etc.

happychicken · Post by **happychicken** » 27 Oct 2008, 16:40

Yep. Personally I think we are entering a big D.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 27 Oct 2008, 17:04

As long as it's not a Mac D.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 27 Oct 2008, 18:55

'D' being a 10% drop in GDP?

'Sunny D' would be even worse - an evil concoction of sugared additives and E numbers for hyperactive brats...

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 27 Oct 2008, 18:59

wooo... just spotted I'm about to hit 500 posts.

Is there any kudos such as being most esteemed which comes with achieving this milestone?

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 27 Oct 2008, 20:26

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:wooo... just spotted I'm about to hit 500 posts. Is there any kudos such as being most esteemed which comes with achieving this milestone?

Nothing happened when I did it

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 27 Oct 2008, 22:14

JohnB wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard wrote:wooo... just spotted I'm about to hit 500 posts. Is there any kudos such as being most esteemed which comes with achieving this milestone?
Nothing happened when I did it

Must be the 1000 that does the trick then. Halfway there...

Should be in the Depression proper

by the time either of us get there.

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That 'R' word

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