What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?
I won't try to answer on behalf of JH, but I would imagine the recent falls in the price of oil are due to the imminent recession that we have all seen coming for the last many months; there has been a definate reduction in demand in places like the UK and more significantly the US due to the price of oil and the general downturn in people's disposable income. This is likely to be fairly short lived in my opinion. Time will tell.
I assume GB meant the global oil-using population when he said "we". If the Chinese and Indians continue to use more oil, but the UK stays stable AND the oil has/had plateaued, the price will continue to increase due to increasing demand outside of the UK......
As for your views on the IEA.... well if they have got there forecasts of oil increases over the next couple of decades wrong (and I believe there is a serious review of this going on), then it is not hard to conclude they may also have got their forecasts of proven reserves wrong. So how can you be so sure that its "definately there"?
Exponential growth rates of recovery. It CANNOT continue. The time we have left before failure is decreasing exponentially.... Closer by the day... and our financial system depends on it....
If Gordon knows the situation then he knows that lending is dead. He knows that he will, via nationalised banks have to manage the repayment of loans and very tightly regulate the making of new loans. All the while all commercial banks will have to be nationalised over time as the fail, and brought under the fold. The crowning glory will be the day the UK goverment takes ownership of the BofE, and takes control of the creation of all UK fiat money. What a difficult job. Maybe he has known this all along.... maybe <gasp> he is the right man for the job?
I expect that bankers know this full well too. Hence the ceasing up of lending markets, the lack of protests when the banks were nationalised, the creeping acceptance that banks will need to be nationalised etc. They haven't fought very hard. The whole history of banking has been about wrestling responsibility from goverments. Responsibility for money creation, interest rates, who's projects get funded and which projects don't. They really do seem to be accepting goverment control rather too easily....
Jim
For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.
"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
Of course, as we all know ( ) there is a lot of excess oil usage in the "West" that could be cut fairly easily. Its when we get to the core oil usage that people, business and industry use, that we will start to see more extensive problems.
Totally_Baffled wrote:Given that prices have sunk from $147 to $66, you have to question how much of the price rise(s) were due to supply and demand.
George Soros said earlier this year that the oil price hike was a spike largely due to speculation. It's looking as though he may have been right, though clearly in the long term the price can only go up.
Others have suggested (can't remember where) that the oil companies are keeping the prices down in a bid to quell American public disquiet and to keep the Republicans in power, though clearly the Republicans have other ideas, like pi**ing off to South America.
"We're just waiting, looking skyward as the days go down / Someone promised there'd be answers if we stayed around."
The supply and demand are moving around by at max 2mbd out of about 85-87. This demonstrates the price elasticity of demand is not that great. It also demonstrates that the scarcity value is quite great at the higher prices rather than the cost of production.
It also undermines the idea that supply can respond to price in any big way.
Demand has exceeeded supply for some time and then this reversed in Oct 2007. It has then reversed back recently. IEA figures do tend, however, to go by a process of approximation.
The supply and demand are moving around by at max 2mbd out of about 85-87. This demonstrates the price elasticity of demand is not that great. It also demonstrates that the scarcity value is quite great at the higher prices rather than the cost of production.
It also undermines the idea that supply can respond to price in any big way.
Demand has exceeeded supply for some time and then this reversed in Oct 2007. It has then reversed back recently. IEA figures do tend, however, to go by a process of approximation.
I just joined this forum and find it rather informative. I have been a welltesting engineer for the last 28 years and have been involved in the collection of data to measure most of all the major and minor oil reservoirs in the world so have intimate knowledge of the worlds remaining oil supplies
With respect to deep water oil I was involved in a number of tests and and made my own conclusions to the findings. Basically I see the exploration of deep water reserves as a ploy by the major oil companies to add assets to their dwindling supplies to buoy up their falling share prices. The oil in the reservoirs is usually insignificant and the flowrates are low due to low permeability of the rocks. Oil companies or stock markets don't differentiate between oil reserves that are impossible to extract and ones that are easy. They are both assets
There is really no plans to develop deep water oil reserves due unless they are really massive and really easy flowing. Brazil is about the only reserve I know of. The ERHA project in Nigeria is not all that deep and very costly to run. It was developed due to political reasons rather than economic ones.
The best case scenario for deep water oil is that it will add a few bumps on the downslope
Might I respectfully suggest reviewing a few past threads and giving us your opinion? Start here.
Last edited by emordnilap on 28 Nov 2008, 12:28, edited 1 time in total.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
