Are previously occupied minds beginning to wake up?

[Rasputin69]

By no means do I (nor anyone really) fully understand the extent and severity of the 'credit crunch', but I am starting to get the impression, if only very slightly, that more and more people are starting to wake up to some of the realities of our situation. About two months ago, when petrol was still at its record high prices in the garage forecourts, my Mother said that she soon thought driving would become a luxury and that families who currently run two or more cars would have to start cutting back and only running the one. Of course, she was by no means specific and I doubt that she is aware of the full implications of peak-oil, but it was refreshing to see a sensible viewpoint being presented. Also, of late, I've noticed that colleagues at work have started talking more and more about 'tightening our belts' and have heard several statements along the lines of, 'well it's a funny time at the minute'. I am just wondering, maybe, whether people are beginning to think a little deeper about these issues. Anyone notice this?

[Ludwig]

I'm surprised by the ignorance of my colleagues re. what's going on. They're all educated people and they're all worried, but I still hear them blame the press for "talking us into a recession"! I've occasionally been unable to hold my tongue and have mentioned Peak Oil, but I get the feeling it's too much for them to take and they just ignore me.

Perhaps being a natural pessimist has its advantages!

[RGR]

I'm surprised by the ignorance of my colleagues re. what's going on. They're all educated people and they're all worried, but I still hear them blame the press for "talking us into a recession"!

[Catweazle]

RGR, do you consider that the sudden spike in fuel prices ( and consequently the increased cost of food and other essentials ) has had any effect at all in pushing the lowest paid to default on their loans and start this whole ball rolling ?

[snow hope]

RGR, do you consider that the sudden spike in fuel prices ( and consequently the increased cost of food and other essentials ) has had any effect at all in pushing the lowest paid to default on their loans and start this whole ball rolling ?

Hehe, of course he doesn't, it would affect his career - he is in complete denial - that much he has made clear on this board.

[SILVERHARP2]

I don’t think you need to worry about both at the same time from a market perspective this is very like 1937 and even 1973 which were both Peaks for commodities at the time, the stock market has much more to fall over the next 6 months I would look for a low in Oct , a rally into Jan and another fall after that. Meanwhile commodities will still be falling so I think PO will be moved off the table in the publics mind as people will be more worried about deflating assets
So for the foreseeable future I am notworried about shortages of any commodity except money ,

[Andy Hunt]

for the foreseeable future I am notworried about shortages of any commodity except money ,

How about electricity . . . ? Or do you have a decent energy plan/grid in Eire?

[SILVERHARP2]

for the foreseeable future I am notworried about shortages of any commodity except money ,

How about electricity . . . ? Or do you have a decent energy plan/grid in Eire?

to be honest I dont know how robust it is but I don't mind power cuts per say or restricted use, what are you expecting to cause breakdowns in the near term? short of saying there might be no power for weeks on end, which I cant see a reason for this

I know that at times peak demand gets close to capacity but as far as i am aware their are deals in place with large corporate users to come off line if needed.

The game has changed a little this year, energy producers will be looking for cash now more then ever so I cant see the russians pulling their gas in the near or medium term. If chindia breaks down in this credit crises then their ability/need to import energy will drop, I believe China has stopped importing refined product now (good sign)

[RGR]

RGR, do you consider that the sudden spike in fuel prices ( and consequently the increased cost of food and other essentials ) has had any effect at all in pushing the lowest paid to default on their loans and start this whole ball rolling ?

[RGR]

[quote="snow hope"]

[biffvernon]

I am in denial about nothing,

Clearly guilty of being in denial of being in denial.

[Andy Hunt]

I am in denial about nothing,

Clearly guilty of being in denial of being in denial.

There is nothing to deny but denial itself.

[Prono 007]

I am in denial about nothing, I simply do not link up the points the same way Peakers do.

The current crisis is surely a combination of the housing bubble bursting and continued upward pressure oil prices since 2005. Either one on their own may have lead to current economic woes or may not have. It seems impossible to say which has had a greater effect and really it's not that relevant since it's the combination of the two that have caused the current situation. Rising oil price has affected everything, more so in the US where it's harder felt due to no taxation. I've read that a lot of the defaults on the US mortgages have been in commuter areas where people have to drive 2/3 hours a day to get to work. More money spent on energy means less disposable income or less for the rising mortgage.

Oil price spikes cause recessions on their own. And Brown called this the "Third Oil Shock".

The reason the public don't make the link is because the press aren't making it. Just like they only rarely linked the invasion of Iraq with oil.

[RenewableCandy]

I don't think RGR appreciates, just how many genuinely poor compatriots he has. I think we get to hear more about them, on our news, than he does on US news.

[skeptik]

RGR, do you consider that the sudden spike in fuel prices ( and consequently the increased cost of food and other essentials ) has had any effect at all in pushing the lowest paid to default on their loans and start this whole ball rolling ?

What set the whole ball rolling as regards the property bubble in the USA was legislation promoted by the Democrats in the mid 90's (Barney Frank - oh the irony!) designed to turn poor people who couldn't afford houses into home owners. Banks and mortgage companies were actually forced to provide mortgages (sub prime) which otherwise they would not have. Then greed and stupidity set in. Fees for all became the aim and name of the game. Mortgage lending bubbled out of control (especially after the Dot coms bust) regulation failed (despite voices in the wilderness predicting doom) and Greenspan kept interest rates too low for too long. Rising energy costs undoubtedly exacerbated the situation and hastened the bust, putting extra pressure on consumer budgets. By then the crap had been bundled up, annointed AAA by the ratings agencies and spread around the world. The booming US economy promoted similar 'irrational exuberance' excess elsewhere, and similar property bubbles worldwide - so here we are. Desperately trying to let the air out of a bursting balloon in such a way that it doesn't fly into pieces.