What does the future hold for us?

[JohnB]

I'm sitting in my van on the edge of the Mendips looking at the sun shining across the fields on the Somerset Levels, and I find it hard to believe that we're facing TEOTWAWKI. In the 52 years I've been around I've seen various recessions and crises, and it's all turned out OK. I've read so much that says we're in the brown smelly stuff, and it all makes sense and I should be preparing more for it, but somehow it still doesn't seem real. So I'm just sitting here, on my computer, watching the sheep grazing, with no inclination to empty my bank accounts and stock up on food.

[snow hope]

You are indeed a lucky man John, in some respects.

I am sitting in my office, doing some admin and (generally) trying to sell computer systems.

I think I would prefer your cosy van and the view you have!

[JohnB]

You are indeed a lucky man John, in some respects

You've got me worried now. In what respects am I unlucky?

[Ludwig]

You are indeed a lucky man John, in some respects

You've got me worried now. In what respects am I unlucky?

<doom>Born at the wrong time, like the rest of us!</doom>

[Kentucky Fried Panda]

What does the future hold?

Taxes and then death, just like as usual.

[RenewableCandy]

So I'm just sitting here, on my computer, watching the sheep grazing, with no inclination to empty my bank accounts and stock up on food.

I hope a sheep hasn't emptied my bank account to stock up on food

But yeah I see what you mean. It was a gorgeous evening, if a bit nippy.

[skeptik]

What does the future hold?

Taxes and then death, just like as usual.

A nice sunny day, and in the fridge, the other half of the bottle of Albariño that I didnt drink today. Yummy.

And so to bed and an enjoyable half hour with Richard Dawkins.. (not in person, of course)

Meanwhile the US Senate is setting the $ on a course to destruction.
Interesting times.

[Filter Feeder]

For the record - I'm a doomer. I'm hoping that we'll get another boom cycle out of the system yet, but I doubt it. I don't believe they'll be fast crash. It will be slow, with major crisis interspersed.

I see the US Dollar spiralling down in value due to hyperinflation. The US is really screwed. The Euro will become the dominant world currency. We backed the wrong horse. We'll have a high rate of inflation too before we eventually plead to be let into the Euro - 2 pounds to 1 euro sound over the top?

Emergent nations will hit the skids hard. We'll see widespread famines.

Energy security will become a dominant concern. Russia will continue to flex it's muscles. The US will continue to hungrily eye up Iran. They reckon that if they seize Iran they'll take the heat out of Iraq and secure even more oil reserves for their exclusive use. Russia has plenty of juicy oil agreements in place with Iran, they will NOT roll over the way they did with Iraq. This could be messy, hopefully not too messy.

As fuel shortages bite and supply chains become endangered, the British government will take on more centrally planned characteristics. Regardless of the glaring flaws in the way our country is governed, I do sincerely believe they will try to keep as many of us as alive as possible. Even if this means using force. Fuel will become rationed, and later food will be again too. Bank clerks, "sales advisors" and other pointless professions will be quietly shunted out to work in the fields. Fuel, agriculture and transport assets will be covertly nationalised. Protests and civil disobedience will be crushed ruthlessly.

Immigrants of all hues will become scapegoated by large sections of society. I am hopeful that the state will oppose this rather than exploit it.

Nuclear generation will be ramped up aggressively. This contract has been handed to the French, hopefully in exchange for some kind of concession - unimpeded entry of the Uk into the euro currency perhaps? Coal electricity generation will be ramped up massively too. The welsh valleys will ring out once more to the sound of coal. They'll scrub the emissions, but it still wont do the environment any good. We will learn to improvise micro electricity generating schemes ourselves. Home built wind and solar arrays will become common for homes businesses and community groups.

We'll all learn to make do with a lot less. Less food, less heating, less transport, less freedom. Community will become more important than making money.

[pablo]

For the record - I'm a doomer. I'm hoping that we'll get another boom cycle out of the system yet, but I doubt it. I don't believe they'll be fast crash. It will be slow, with major crisis intersperse

I'm a bit of a doomer too - but more on behalf of my daughter. I think that the US rescue plan will be passed next time around and the credit crunch will be deferred - i.e. transferred to the next generation (thinking in very optomistic mode). I guess we're not quite at peak oil yet. I don't think climate change is going to hit us hard just yet. The human population is just about sustainable about the moment if we reduce waste and stop favouring the rich.....
But unfortunately any continuation of business as usual at all is condemning many humans to death.
Western governments are desperately scrabbling to continue BAU; they may well fail but even if they do there are other governments and commercial forces in the developing world just waiting to do what we have done for the last 150 years.
I really don't think we are going to reach the limits to growth in my lifetime (I'm 43). I think the next generation will have deal with it.
I can see another period of insane population growth, resource use and credit based consumption in the next ten years as the current heavily subsidised commercial sector bounces back for the last? time.
I'm a doomer because I can't see the current system changing until it breaks down - when it will break down I don't know but it's not right now.

[skeptik]

I see the US Dollar spiralling down in value due to hyperinflation. The US is really screwed. The Euro will become the dominant world currency.

I don't think so. Take a good look a the economic data. If the dollar crashes the Euro will come apart at the seams (borders) Germany and its 'client states' will go one way, the Mediterranean countries another. The economies of Europe are not integrated well enough to take the strain.

so much for an early night... turned into a CSPAN junkie..

[emordnilap]

If the dollar crashes the Euro will come apart at the seams (borders) Germany and its 'client states' will go one way, the Mediterranean countries another. The economies of Europe are not integrated well enough to take the strain.

Interesting.

Here's another take, slightly tongue-in-cheek: there have been six Irish currencies since money was first issued here, each currency lasting a shorter period (roughly halving) than its predecessor.

997 to 1460 = 463 years
1460 to 1701 = 241 years
1701 to 1826 = 125 years
1826 to 1928 = 102 years
1928 to 1971 = 43 years
1971 to 2002 = 31 years
2002 to ?

From this, it should be possible to calculate the approximate year of the next Irish currency. My guess, based upon nothing but simplemindedness, is 2016.

Also interesting in this context is the word itself, currency.

[Vortex]

From this, it should be possible to calculate the approximate year of the next Irish currency. My guess, based upon nothing but simplemindedness, is 2016.

Yep. It'll be a barter currency based on the 'diesel'.

One diesel = one litre of diesel or equivalent.
This will be worth roughly one decent 3-course restaurant meal.

[emordnilap]

From this, it should be possible to calculate the approximate year of the next Irish currency. My guess, based upon nothing but simplemindedness, is 2016.

Yep. It'll be a barter currency based on the 'diesel'.

One diesel = one litre of diesel or equivalent.
This will be worth roughly one decent 3-course restaurant meal.

I'd prefer the name 'shout' for this putative new currency.