Spending your way out of debt

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

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Mr. Fox
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Post by Mr. Fox »

TB wrote::D
It's a pity google video appear to have removed the view counter from the page - I seem to recall it being in the 100s of Thousands last time I looked at it a year or so ago. :? Be interesting to know what it is now.

Here's another (<5mins, about Gesell) which is fast burning into my memory:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxdPIOUTd2k

It briefly covers the Worgl 'experiment' - a concrete example of the practicalities of implementing his ideas.


MacG, cheers, I'll have to look at Magdeburg - any good links recommend?
The basic problem is interest, at least compounding interest, and all of them understood it. What sets Gesell apart is that he saw it so clearly in a time when everyone else was high on that growth-drug.
To my mind, Gesell went a step further than condemning the mechanism of usury, in that he recognised a systemic fault in the (metaphysical) nature of 'money' itself: Namely, it's qualitative difference from the things it is *merely* supposed to represent.

What he termed 'the logic of Rats, moths and rust'.

By 'engineering' into the 'money' a mechanism of atrophy, it's velocity increased, since there was a strong disincentive to 'hoarding'.

Even with a debt-free currency, this mechanism does not exist, hence by 'hoarding', saving or withholding currency from circulation, you artificially restrict availability, hence the 'value' of the currency (like any 'commodity') increases - the resultant feedback-loop ensures that the rich get richer still.

Gesell prevents such feedback-loops even getting established, by introducing his own.

It's a challenging idea, and not one I'd quite encountered before reading Gesell - as you note, even Marx failed to make this observation. I've pondered before whether this systemic fault on which Marx constructed his theories rendered Marxim 'harmless' to the status quo... that being the reason Marx is a household name while Gesell remains obscure.

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Ludwig
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Post by Ludwig »

Totally_Baffled wrote:
Ludwig wrote:
SunnyJim wrote: It's compound interest that necessitates growth in order to service the capital + interest. Its the need for growth that necessitates creating money from thin air. We wouldn't be able to stop creating money from thin air without ceasing growth, which is what we're seeing at the moment. If we continue to grow money supply while the 'real economy' is shrinking we get inflation.
I'm keen to understand this... Is this because there's too much money chasing too few goods?
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 2583451279

This explains it all!

I recommend this!
Thanks, that was excellent. Actually it made me realise that I understood the basic situation already, but it clarified some of the nuts and bolts very well.

When I was younger I'd think, "How can it 'not matter'?" that a nation is massively, irrecoverably in debt. It's such an obvious question that you feel stupid for asking it: another case of the Big Lie being easier to maintain than the small one.
"We're just waiting, looking skyward as the days go down / Someone promised there'd be answers if we stayed around."
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SunnyJim
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Post by SunnyJim »

Mr. Fox wrote:
Totally_Baffled wrote:http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 2583451279

This explains it all!

I recommend this!
Seconded. Well worth a watch if you have 47 mins spare and broadband - it clearly describes the basic systemic driver for 'growth'.

(BTW, is it sad that I recognised the URL without checking the link? :oops: )
Another vote for that link! If you don't have 47 mins spare and broadband you could read 'Modern Money Mechanics' a handbook issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. So straight from the horses mouth so to speak.

You can see the HTML format here or download a pdf here. PDF is 2.7Mb.
Jim

For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.

"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
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SunnyJim
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Post by SunnyJim »

Mr. Fox wrote:
TB wrote::D
It's a pity google video appear to have removed the view counter from the page - I seem to recall it being in the 100s of Thousands last time I looked at it a year or so ago. :? Be interesting to know what it is now.

Here's another (<5mins, about Gesell) which is fast burning into my memory:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxdPIOUTd2k

It briefly covers the Worgl 'experiment' - a concrete example of the practicalities of implementing his ideas.


MacG, cheers, I'll have to look at Magdeburg - any good links recommend?
The basic problem is interest, at least compounding interest, and all of them understood it. What sets Gesell apart is that he saw it so clearly in a time when everyone else was high on that growth-drug.
To my mind, Gesell went a step further than condemning the mechanism of usury, in that he recognised a systemic fault in the (metaphysical) nature of 'money' itself: Namely, it's qualitative difference from the things it is *merely* supposed to represent.

What he termed 'the logic of Rats, moths and rust'.

By 'engineering' into the 'money' a mechanism of atrophy, it's velocity increased, since there was a strong disincentive to 'hoarding'.

Even with a debt-free currency, this mechanism does not exist, hence by 'hoarding', saving or withholding currency from circulation, you artificially restrict availability, hence the 'value' of the currency (like any 'commodity') increases - the resultant feedback-loop ensures that the rich get richer still.

Gesell prevents such feedback-loops even getting established, by introducing his own.

It's a challenging idea, and not one I'd quite encountered before reading Gesell - as you note, even Marx failed to make this observation. I've pondered before whether this systemic fault on which Marx constructed his theories rendered Marxim 'harmless' to the status quo... that being the reason Marx is a household name while Gesell remains obscure.

Image

Ah!!!! Yes, now bells are ringing. Couldn't place the Gesell name, but I have read about the theory of money entropy. Must have been a MacG link! Great ideas.

However, I don't think Gesell was alone in his identification of usary as a bad thing. Some big names went before him, e.g. Jesus, Muhammad etc. Maybe Gesell was unique to that period!
Jim

For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.

"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Ludwig wrote:[When I was younger I'd think, "How can it 'not matter'?" that a nation is massively, irrecoverably in debt. It's such an obvious question that you feel stupid for asking it: another case of the Big Lie being easier to maintain than the small one.
And when I was young I was forever asking about things, but never once thought to ask, where does money come from?

Anyone here heard anything about the ancient Jewish practice of wiping out all debts every 7 years?
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goslow
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Post by goslow »

Yep, cancelled every 7 years, see Deuteronomy chapter 15. Also the year of Jubilee, Leviticus chapter 25. The basic idea with jubilee is that property is never sold outright, but leased for periods of 49 years, and on the 50th year all property is returned to the original owner. Sounds like a great idea, but I am not sure the Israelites ever did it properly though!
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Ludwig
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Post by Ludwig »

Watching that video made me see something clearly that I'd heard mentioned but never fully grasped: that the credit-based world economy is nothing more than the South Sea Bubble in macrocosm - a pyramid scheme so gigantic that the payback period transcended the human lifespan by a significant multiple, and so (taken as a whole) was risk-free for several generations. Sigh.
"We're just waiting, looking skyward as the days go down / Someone promised there'd be answers if we stayed around."
MacG
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Post by MacG »

Ludwig wrote:Watching that video made me see something clearly that I'd heard mentioned but never fully grasped: that the credit-based world economy is nothing more than the South Sea Bubble in macrocosm - a pyramid scheme so gigantic that the payback period transcended the human lifespan by a significant multiple, and so (taken as a whole) was risk-free for several generations. Sigh.
Don't forget that we have built a tremendous amount of collateral for all those loans - roads, houses, factories, harbors... All the time we had to build more and more collateral to be able to get new loans to pay the old ones with interest. Since we seem to have reached peak oil, it is difficult to imagine how we can continue to build more and more collateral. Only lender left with unlimited lending power now is the governments.
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SunnyJim
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Post by SunnyJim »

Also that collateral was related to physical resources. As those deplete we won't even be able to maintian the stuff we've built, let alone build new stuff!!!
Jim

For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.

"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
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Ludwig
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Post by Ludwig »

MacG wrote:
Ludwig wrote:Watching that video made me see something clearly that I'd heard mentioned but never fully grasped: that the credit-based world economy is nothing more than the South Sea Bubble in macrocosm - a pyramid scheme so gigantic that the payback period transcended the human lifespan by a significant multiple, and so (taken as a whole) was risk-free for several generations. Sigh.
Don't forget that we have built a tremendous amount of collateral for all those loans - roads, houses, factories, harbors... All the time we had to build more and more collateral to be able to get new loans to pay the old ones with interest. Since we seem to have reached peak oil, it is difficult to imagine how we can continue to build more and more collateral.
Yes and the problem, is it not, is that the amount of /existing/ collateral is a small fraction of that needed to balance /existing/ debt. The collateral, for most debt - by which I include money invested in stocks etc. - is simply the expectation of the building of collateral! Or have I misunderstood?
"We're just waiting, looking skyward as the days go down / Someone promised there'd be answers if we stayed around."
MacG
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Post by MacG »

Ludwig wrote:The collateral, for most debt - by which I include money invested in stocks etc. - is simply the expectation of the building of collateral! Or have I misunderstood?
Nops. Not misunderstood. Belief in future growth has been the central narrative keeping this thing going.
MacG
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Post by MacG »

SunnyJim wrote:Also that collateral was related to physical resources. As those deplete we won't even be able to maintain the stuff we've built, let alone build new stuff!!!
Yups. That's a demon with a very nasty bite.
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skeptik
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Post by skeptik »

EmptyBee wrote:Hey it works for Zimbabwe doesn't it? I mean look at this guy: he's loaded!
Loaded? Actually he's on his way round to the corner shop to buy a packet of fags and a pint of milk.
"When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?"
John Maynard Keynes.
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Mr. Fox
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Post by Mr. Fox »

SunnyJim wrote:..I have read about the theory of money entropy. Must have been a MacG link! Great ideas.

However, I don't think Gesell was alone in his identification of usary as a bad thing. Some big names went before him, e.g. Jesus, Muhammad etc. Maybe Gesell was unique to that period!
I'm not saying he was alone in his identification of usury as a problem, not at all...

What I am saying is that he was (more or less) alone in his identification of 'money entropy' (or rather, lack of it) as the fault.

A 'money' that 'entropies' is systemically unable to be debased and distorted by usury - or hoarding/artificial scarcity.

If you simply remove the usury component, yet leave the currency with it's *magic* resistance to 'rats, moths and rust' intact, you'll still have those systemic drivers that push the distribution inexorably towards inequality.

Sure, you'll have got rid of the 'growth driver', but the mechanism by which 'wealth' *naturally* gravitates toward 'wealth' - no matter what you do - see to it that the 'wealth' (hence power) remains concentrated.

Perhaps it was what Dana Meadows had in mind when talking of 'Trancending the Paradigm'?

(That 'Modern Money Mechanics' book is a gem, btw. Cheers! :) )
MacG
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Post by MacG »

Mr. Fox wrote:
SunnyJim wrote:..I have read about the theory of money entropy. Must have been a MacG link! Great ideas.

However, I don't think Gesell was alone in his identification of usary as a bad thing. Some big names went before him, e.g. Jesus, Muhammad etc. Maybe Gesell was unique to that period!
I'm not saying he was alone in his identification of usury as a problem, not at all...

What I am saying is that he was (more or less) alone in his identification of 'money entropy' (or rather, lack of it) as the fault.

A 'money' that 'entropies' is systemically unable to be debased and distorted by usury - or hoarding/artificial scarcity.

If you simply remove the usury component, yet leave the currency with it's *magic* resistance to 'rats, moths and rust' intact, you'll still have those systemic drivers that push the distribution inexorably towards inequality.

Sure, you'll have got rid of the 'growth driver', but the mechanism by which 'wealth' *naturally* gravitates toward 'wealth' - no matter what you do - see to it that the 'wealth' (hence power) remains concentrated.

Perhaps it was what Dana Meadows had in mind when talking of 'Trancending the Paradigm'?

(That 'Modern Money Mechanics' book is a gem, btw. Cheers! :) )
Practical experience indicate that you get the same inequality with entropy loaded money. The two prime examples of societies with demurrage are the old Egyptian and the European high middle ages. The most significant streak in those societies were the monuments and artwork they left behind, not any particular equality. When "money" cease to be a storage of value, people seem to look for *real* values.
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