"Normal" days

[RenewableCandy]

I walked into York city centre today, and watched all the thousands of sheeple rushing in and out of shops and stuffing their faces with junk food. I must admit I had fish & chips and an ice cream. It was ok for a few hours, but if that's "normal" life I don't want too much of it. Charlie was sick after eating some of the wasted food that gets dropped all over the place

I'm sure it's no consolation, but York is no worse than anywhere else

[JohnB]

I'm sure it's no consolation, but York is no worse than anywhere else

I actually thought it was better than a lot of places . I'd just spent ages teaching Charlie to walk on the pedestrian side of the white line down the middle of the riverside path, when the line suddenly ended, and he nearly got mown down by a bike and trailer

[fubar1977]

Mercifully, most european cities seem much more car unfriendly?bike friendly than cities stateside.
We have forced cars into our major population centres as opposed to designing them for cars from the start.
I often look round my own town and think how wonderful it would be minus all the cars.

[Catweazle]

If only those damned facts would stop getting in the way we could forget about PO and have a barbecue.

PO as speculated about by peakers and doomers and such has nothing to do with facts, just a solid ignorance of some basic economics, discovery and geologic process modeling, zero foresight for the obvious and the inability to be objective about themselves, others around them or the world at large.

Based on facts, this debate ended long ago, and it sure wasn't won by the people claiming we're running out in 1874 any more than the people claiming we are running out today ( or that a peak with more than a trillion barrels well known and already found and yet to be consumed means much ).

Let's talk about some facts then:

I can't afford to do many miles in my car: FACT
Some people are going to struggle to heat their homes this winter: FACT
Some people will die of cold in Britain: FACT
Food prices have gone up due to biofuel production: FACT
WHO predicts 74 Million people will go hungry because of rising food and transport costs: FACT
Many people will starve to death: FACT
Wars will be fought and soldiers will die to secure oil supplies: FACT
Countries will use oil supply as leverage of their political and territorial ambitions: FACT

And you're trying to tell me that there's no shortage of oil ? I don't need to look at your creative numbers to see that there isn't enough oil coming out of the ground, I can see it every time I look at my bank balance.

[emordnilap]

Cat, I know where you're coming from. But our Yankee associates won't suffer. Many think they will, but suffering is relative. They have a bloated nation and it has a long long way to go to cut down on their energy usage down to even anywhere near European levels.

As you realise, there's a lot of fat to trim in America. The USA could greatly improve vehicle mpgs, downsize their homes, eat less, waste less, go all-out for renewables, insulate, move to more sensible places, buy energy-efficient appliances, cut back on this insane military spending and a zillion other things and they still won't approach our levels of energy usage - even though we ourselves, as Europeans, use more than our fair share of resources.

They'll squeal under the knife alright - but it will do them good and they'll still be far better off than the other six and a half billion.

[RGR]

[quote="Catweazle"]

[Rasputin69]

Surely rather than debating over what PO actually means to a certain demographic or when it will, or whether it has already occured, we should accept the overriding laws of geology; that whether in our life time or not, fossil fuels will eventually be unavailable (take this to mean prohibitively expensive, difficult to extract or whatever). No amount of evidence in support of any side can deny that. Sadly, at present, the vast majority of popular thought, planning and goals are based on an assumption which almost entirely ignores the geological facts of fossil fuels and instead strives endlessly for monetary and materialistic gain in the present. I would like to express that all of this is my opinion, which, I will add, is formed after twenty years of life in the North of England (therefore, to many people here, probably rendering me a child).

I accept that people have differing opinions on the PO front, and indeed on all aspects of life, (if not, why are we using this forum when we could, instead, be ranting about the 'rip-off prices at the pumps?) but frankly, I believe that as an overriding argument, anyone who is not making at least minor changes to their lifestlyes now obviously doesn't care about the future well being of their children and grandchildren.

RGR, I see the point you are conveying with oil peaks having occured many times already in the past, but I must disagree with you that the 'doomer speak' you mention is futile or jaded. Like I've said, nobody can deny we will one day not be able to rely on fossil fuels. I realise that I have very limited knowledge of the oil industry compared to yourself, but on a personal level, I agree with the other poster who listed the facts that have began to or will very soon hit Britain. As someone who has only paid one years worth of gas and elecricity bills in a student house, I would just like to mention that paying those bills was not a terribly inviting prospect to sign away my already dwindling student bank account. I am by no means seeking sympathy here, nor am I ignorant enough to surmise my bills were greater than those of anyone else, but the fact remains that the bills hit me hard and are set to hit me even harder in this coming winter. That, out of a handful of other reasons, is why I read and post on this forum, so I can build upon my knowledge and begin preparing for a lifestlye that will be more resilient.

Thank you

[adam2]

Long term physical shortages of oil are most unlikely in the developed world, provided that a free market in oil and oil products prevails.
(localised or short term shortages caused by industrial disputes, breakdowns, accidents, extreme weather or terrorism are entirely possible, and have occured in the past)

The peaking of oil production will result (in a market economy) in the price rising substantialy, as has already started.
This will result in hardship and probably loss of life, but for those abe to pay the increased price no actual shortages.

"fuel poverty" is a new term, but it is a fact that since the invention of cities, people have died for want of fuel, and regretably allways will. Despite the recent substantial increases in energy costs, heating is still much cheaper (as a proportion of income) than it was in the past.
All but the wealthy or well prepared will have to return to heating only in severe weather, to heating one room room only, and not above 18 degrees.
Many are going to have to reduce other expenditure in order to afford food and fuel. I have neighbours who complain incessently about the cost of fuel, yet take several foreign holidays a year and have just bought a new large car.

I predict that in 20 years time, a sufficiently rich persom will be able to purchase as much oil or food as they want.

[Rasputin69]

Completely agree with you that we're facing an ever exacerbated fuel-poverty in the developed world. I think that's why it's essential we begin instilling new values into our youth and of course, creating resilience via the work of the Transition Towns initiatives and others. By no means am I saying that PO or the TTs models should be dogmatic and followed unquestionaly, but in these times of rising uncertainty, positive actions or idea that challenge the fundametals of the fossil-fuel based, increasingly de-humanising and regimented capitalist system should be welcomed. My appologies if this is sounding like a poor man's sociology essay, but I know that like the vast majority of the Global population, I won't be rich enough to afford oil and its luxuries in twenty years time and so I see it as a non-argument to begin encouraging an alternative means of 'making a living'.

[Rasputin69]

Poor man's essay indeed as it seems I cannot spell properly...

[RGR]

[quote="Rasputin69"]

[Vortex]

RGR, we have the Mad Max crowd on one side and you at the opposite side.

Now, in most things human, the extremists are generally wrong.
The 'truth' lies somewhere in the middle.

I already accept that the Mad Maxers are off the mark, for a variety of reasons ... which leaves me with the RGR position to consider.

Whilst you can certainly talk the talk I feel that, based on my in-depth musings above, it is unlikely that your story can walk the walk.

The Mad Maxers will be sorely disappointed that they can't shoot their noisy neighbours or rape pretty school girls ... whilst you could be be rudely surprised by how heavy a hit society will take when the oil supply becomes just a little harder to sustain ... probably Real Soon Now.

"Is that Reserve Growth in your pocket or are you just pleased to see me?"

[RenewableCandy]

[fubar1977]

Inventories have oil, strategic stockpiles are full, the US is using so little gasoline nowadays we're exporting all our spare stuff

RGR...

I thought the US had been IMPORTING oil for years now as a result of its own peak in the 70`s and wanting to keep its own (admittedly large) reserves available to support it`s military requirements.

Surely it`s a fact that the US is not self sufficent in oil and hasn`t been for years...

[RGR]

RGR, we have the Mad Max crowd on one side and you at the opposite side.