But I bet I'm not the only one who'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on this anyway....Tess wrote:I could give you several reasons for why Oil went down this week, but you shouldn't believe me. Never believe me.
Oilcast #26: Who sold Exxon? Who is selling crude and why?
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fishertrop
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Even though you would never believe them!fishertrop wrote:But I bet I'm not the only one who'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on this anyway....Tess wrote:I could give you several reasons for why Oil went down this week, but you shouldn't believe me. Never believe me.
Real money is gold and silver
That would be a shame, though I couldn't blame him - you have to make a living somehow. I may not often agree with his conclusions, but it's always useful to know what he thinks is worth discussion.fishertrop wrote: I'm a big fan of the Oilcast programs and was initially sadened to hear it would likely become a paid-access service
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fishertrop
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On this weeks FSN Radio "big picture" section ( see http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm ) the host suggested he thought that:Tess wrote: I could give you several reasons for why Oil went down this week, but you shouldn't believe me. Never believe me.
1) A lot of the big players on Wall St hadn't made as much money from the oil-stocks mini-boom as they would have liked
2) She same had realised these stocks were long-term bullish
3) Were throwing all their muscle behind a downward drive of oil-stock values
4) This included record shorting of crude as it has a direct impact on the value of oil stocks
5) And included massive selling and shorting of oil stocks in a huge bearish effort
6) This was leading to a planned downturn in oil stocks at which point Wall St would buy-in en masse
7) This same temporary bottom was a good time for investors listening to the show to also get in
Alas the side effect of this concerted effort and the massive (they said "record") shorting of crude had also lead to a false bear trend in crude9) They mentioned some info about refinary output being much more gasoline-focused than it should be at this time of year, similary a flush of IEA-stocks was depressing the pump prices in the US - which was a vote winner but unsustainable...
So Tess, does any of this fit with your dont-believe-me reasons, or is it wide of the mark?
My (laymans...) guess would be then, if the above is more or less the picture, that it'll switch to an artifical bull-run as the same Wall St players then switch to talking-up the stocks they've just bought? ...and this might also translate to another crude mini-bubble given the tie-in between oil stock prices and crude prices??
What do people think?
fishertrop wrote:
What do people think?
The market goes up, the market goes down. Gordon Gecko sitting in his office pulling the strings makes a buck.
Ultimately it's unimportant.
All that really matters is the physical availabilty of energy, the net ammount and its quality.
everything else is just bean counting and politics - keeping track of who has control of what.
I'm not really interested in the short term gyrations of the market. I dont think its worth expending much mental effort in trying to figure it out.
I've never seen convincing evidence that speculators alone can move the oil market to any great degree. There are some effects when hedge funds or commodity indices such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) roll their investments from one month to the next, but in the grand scheme of things they're minor fluctuations, a distortion of the prevailing trends.fishertrop wrote:So Tess, does any of this fit with your dont-believe-me reasons, or is it wide of the mark?
Of course hedge funds are worth watching, but in general they seem to be the sheep not the wolves.
At its heart the oil market is still a game of supply and demand and the opacity surrounding both.
