'Get the Candles In' briefing now online

[mobbsey]

Finally, I've been at home long enough to set up and upload the Free Range Network's 'Get the Candles In' briefing -- a review of why me might get power cuts this winter and what steps people might take to get around the difficulties this might create:
http://www.fraw.org.uk/pubs/frb/frb-05_01.html

It's actually already out of date, but there's no point updating before the JESS report emerges in November, so they'll probably issue an update then.

The media are also starting to pick up on this issue too -- e.g. the Sunday Times last Sunday:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 00,00.html


P.

[clv101]

Great report Paul, I hadn't thought about the geographical imbalance between electricity generation and demand before. This is just the kinda thing I've been banging on about on my website: www.vitaltrivia.co.uk. I can't say long range weather forecasts hold much credibility with me but at the same time I don't think we need an amazingly cold winter to be in trouble.

This graph shows just how mild it's been recently, yet in light of rapidly declining oil, gas and coal extraction rates and ageing energy infrastructure throughout the country we're currently going to be doing very well to cope with an average winter.


If this winter is really the coldest we've had in decades we're looking at a disaster.

[jev]

I really do think though that poeple have got to start being made more aware of essential conservation measures so that if we do have a severe winter we can all just about get buy. Simple things like only having your heating turned up to 17/18 degrees combined with warm clothes, turning radiators down in rooms that you don't use much, altering central heating/ water heating timers to cut down on the amount of time there on (you don't need your hot water at 90 degrees!), turning lights and electrical equipment off behind you, using lids on pans etc etc, there's just so many ways of cutting down significantly. I became aware of the implications of this topic about 6 months ago and the alarm bells it rang with me were just instant (can't say it's been the same though for friends and family i've tried to wake up to it! There's a lot of denial going on out there!!). I've never been an excessive energy user, but just by carrying out simple measures as described above my last gas bill was over a third less (by usage) than it was for the same period last year. I suspect I will get an even larger percentage usage drop in the winter by keeping the central heating on lower etc. I would expect my electricity use to decrease significantly. I know it's impossible, given the nature of most people these days, but just imagine if everyone started conserving their usage significantly - it would be years before we have a major problem. Like most things in this game however, efficiencies tend to lead to drops in demand, which tend to lead to cheaper prices, which takes peoples eye off the real problem! You can't win 'em all.

" The next generation, will get it from the start, it's the end of the modern age" - Luke Haines

[Joe]

IMO it isn't just the National Grid that's ropey. Remember that the National Grid is only responsible for getting the power to the nearest primary substation - the bit between there and your meter is down to the regional electricity distribution company (i.e. this lot)

These companies were privatised 15 years ago and have subsequently been driven by profit, so have consequently been more cost sensitive with respect to maintenance operations. The implication here is longer periods between preventative maintenance for significant portions of their networks and the use of lower cost (and therefore lower quality) switch gear, cables etc.

To offer some anecdotal evidence of this, I used to worked for one of these companies (who shall remain nameless) in the early 90's. One late autumn/early winter they were in the middle of replacing several miles of HV overhead in a remote rural area with new kit. Before they'd switched over to the new infrastructure a moderate storm managed to take out almost the entire new section of the network because the cheaper parts couldn't bear the additional weight of snow lying on the cables.

Given that we haven't had a severe winter for years, it'll certainly be interesting to see what happens if the the Met office predictions are right and the regional distributors have been skimping on network maintenance. I for one have already ordered one of these babies - just in case...

[biffvernon]

This morning's Today Programme on Radio 4 ran another piece about the met office cold inter forecast:

Our latest predictions indicate a colder than average winter for much of Europe. If this holds true, parts of the UK ? especially southern regions ? are expected to have temperatures below normal.

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

without highlighting the warning:

Confidence in long-range predictions is relatively low compared to our normal short-period forecasts.

i.e. about as much use as a bit of damp seaweed.

But the met office spokesman was keen to issue a warning for the government, public and utilities to plan for a severe winter. Maybe he's been reading about the dodgy state of our energy supply industry.

[Joe]

Metcheck have released their 6 month forecast using their "coupled" model that they claim is inherently more accurate than statistical models (anyone know anything about the distinction between the two?); they're anticipating a winter that will slightly milder than the 1982 - 2003 average.

[Blue Peter]

Metcheck have released their 6 month forecast using their "coupled" model that they claim is inherently more accurate than statistical models (anyone know anything about the distinction between the two?); they're anticipating a winter that will slightly milder than the 1982 - 2003 average.

That's interesting. Because they've had problems with getting the data and with their computers, and they're not giving out their winter forecast until Wed 1st Nov at 12 p.m.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/

I wonder what the difference between the two is,


Peter.

[clv101]

MetCheck got it very wrong last year... if they say it'll be warm, I expect it'll be cold!! See this story from Oct 2004: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3738824.stm

[skeptik]

MetCheck got it very wrong last year... if they say it'll be warm, I expect it'll be cold!! See this story from Oct 2004: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3738824.stm

Ha!...you think their unreliability is that reliable?

[skeptik]

MetCheck got it very wrong last year... if they say it'll be warm, I expect it'll be cold!! See this story from Oct 2004: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3738824.stm

Ha!...you think their unreliability is that reliable?

[Blue Peter]

MetCheck got it very wrong last year... if they say it'll be warm, I expect it'll be cold!! See this story from Oct 2004: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3738824.stm

Well, according to that theory, it will be average to slightly colder than average in the UK, and warmer than average in Europe. So that, any Easterlies which we get, will be markedly warmer than those seen in recent winters.


Since it's probably not a good idea to confuse people, their real forecast, without the Chris Vernon adjustment is:

it will be average to slightly warmer than average in the UK, and colder than average in Europe. So that, any Easterlies which we (UK) get, will be markedly colder than those seen in recent winters.


Peter.

[skeptik]

This graph shows just how mild it's been recently,

I love graphs. One good graph deserves another... longer data set which starts 52 years earlier but terminates 5 years earlier in '98 rather than '03

[snow hope]

Looks like we are currently as mild as we were in the 1730s during the Little Ice Age!

Just shows that things aren't quite as different as some would have us believe.

[skeptik]

Looks like we are currently as mild as we were in the 1730s during the Little Ice Age!

Just shows that things aren't quite as different as some would have us believe.

Whats plotted is the annual mean, and a 3 year moving average of that mean.

It would be interesting to have an oveplot of the difference between 6months of 'summer' averaged and the six months of 'winter' averaged.

I imagine during the little ice age the summer-winter difference was more extreme than now. That seems to have been the major change in just the last few years - less difference between the seasons with milder winters and earlier springs being the most noticable.

[skeptik]

Looks like we are currently as mild as we were in the 1730s during the Little Ice Age!

Just shows that things aren't quite as different as some would have us believe.

Whats plotted is the annual mean, and a 3 year moving average of that mean.

It would be interesting to have an overplot of the difference between 6months of 'summer' averaged and the six months of 'winter' averaged.

I imagine during the little ice age (prior to 1850) the summer-winter difference was more extreme than now. That seems to have been the major climate change in just the last few years - less difference between the seasons with milder winters and earlier springs being most noticable.