pop shove wallenburgggg

[JMP]

What do you feel are the pros and cons of Finland?

Pros:

- low population density
- decent agricultural basis (we can feed ourselves now, but will need oil-free ways to produce fertilizers and run tractors and harvesters)
- decent railway system across the country
- remote location (no large refugee hordes expected)
- little corruption, cohesive society, homogenous people --> good chances to avoid major civil unrest
- abundant supply of clean fresh water
- abundant supply of wood for energy from wood pellets
- can produce 70% of current energy without oil (although prices for imported NG and uranium will certainly rise, too)

Cons:

- no natural fossile energy sources
- exports mostly mobile phone technology and paper products - no priority stuff during a desperate global energy crisis --> will probably have to survive mostly on its own
- dependance upon Atlantic thermohaline current a.k.a. Gulf stream (should it turn off, the surviving 1% would be herding reindeer)
- short growing season is rather vulnerable to temporary cold periods as well
- average farmer is 50+ years of age, many farms face closing down in the next years
- relatively long distances between population centers; eventually we'll probably have to use horse & carriage again (with electricity/steam-run trains for longer transports)

[Joe]

Stumbled over this today: http://www.nationmaster.com/top_stats.php

It looks like most of the data comes from the CIA world factbook, but this has a nice interface for running quick comparisons.

[aliwood]

Isn't NZ on an Earth fault line - hence all those geothermals? I have nothing against the place personally, my gran tells me it's nice, but I don't think I'd want to live in a major Earthquake zone.

See here for more detail.

[JLefrere]

Yes that's exactly what I thought about Finland. Also pro: nicer people than England!
I thought the biggest danger was climate change though, so I won't be going there.

[JLefrere]

As for NZ- I still have to look into this really, but I can't see it putting me off. I'm guessing that it's just one major constructive margin though, not like Japan or anything. I will check it out.

[JMP]

Yes that's exactly what I thought about Finland. Also pro: nicer people than England!

Err, not so sure about that... Alcoholism and violent crime may well become favorite pastimes for a lot of impoverished people if/when the recession or crash hits.

I thought the biggest danger was climate change though, so I won't be going there.

I read most scientists estimate the probability of a shutdown of the Gulf stream at about 10%. (I found that claim on an environmentalist site, so it's probably not unwarranted optimism). But the processes that global warming will or might trigger are so complex and intertwined that future climate predictions are extremely difficult, so I don't know how much weight one should place on the climate threat. Europe might just get warmer and warmer, with all the additional thermal boost from methane released by melting permafrost bogs in Siberia... which would be advantageous for England too (up to a limit, and provided that rainfall stays at sufficient levels). However, most of the world in general would be in very big trouble

[JLefrere]

I probably have a skewed view then since I only know and have met really nice Finns, unlike in London and Milton Keynes. Who can tell though. It seems very difficult to determine the future of specific regions, and the studies you can find differ greatly in their predictions.

The climate change document produced for the US government which I read (I can't remember who carried out the research) was based on a low probability / high risk scenario, and they envisioned mass migration out of a colder northern Europe ? and also droughts in the Meditteranean ? concluding that Europe would be the continent worst hit by climate change. I'm by no means an expert on climate change, but it seems to me that either Ireland or remote areas of the UK would be the best places to be in Europe if such a scenario were to happen.

But since I don't know enough either about climate change in general, or the likely futures of specific countries, I think a decision to emigrate should be based mainly on whether enjoy living where you are now. I personally don't, and even before I knew about PO etc. I wanted to move elsewhere.

I'm sure some people have planned and researched in much more depth than me, but I believe we'll have near-normality for 5 years so I'm not letting myself worry about planning just yet. Maybe some people here will contest that we don't have even 5 years! I worry more about what happens in the next decade than in this decade.

[JMP]

For Western/Central/Northern Europe, the worst thing about the climate cooling would be its effect on agriculture. With a drop of 5 degrees Celsius (apparently not very probable, as of now), we would certainly avoid freezing by proper adjustments in heating, but the damage done to crops would certainly cause serious famines in Europe.

I think a decision to emigrate should be based mainly on whether enjoy living where you are now. I personally don't, and even before I knew about PO etc. I wanted to move elsewhere.

There's been a lot of discussion about this among peakers, and many have pointed out that before moving anywhere one should make sure he and his family will be able to integrate into the new social setting (not remaining a potential victim of xenophobia), find employment (pre- and post-PO), have a secure residence far away from population centers and (highly recommended) possibility to grow his own food.

I'm sure some people have planned and researched in much more depth than me, but I believe we'll have near-normality for 5 years so I'm not letting myself worry about planning just yet. Maybe some people here will contest that we don't have even 5 years! I worry more about what happens in the next decade than in this decade.

I have similar expectations. IMHO the ASPO prognosis is probably about right (PO occurring around 2010). Even then I don't believe that societies will collapse overnight (if at all); when the price of oil exceeds a certain pain level, a lot of consumer demand destruction will help governing bodies allocate remaining oil to the most necessary needs (food, energy etc). Unemployment and poverty are unavoidable everywhere, though.

[skeptik]

Cons:

All that dark and gloomy Pine forest. or Mirkwood as Tolkein called it in the LOR. Personally I prefer the more open English landscape with the odd bit of beech or oak forest. Cant beat walking beech forest in the spring when the leaves are delightfully translucent.

Seasonal Adaptive Disorder.

Absurdy expensive booze. No wonder they're all into distilling their own brain rotting moonshine or nipping over the nearest border to stock up.

Despite the above, They're massive boozers with a prediliction for going on enormous benders at the weekend. If you dont enjoy drinking, and lots of it, you wont fit in. I this is common to all the Scandinavian countries.

http://www.helsinginsanomat.fi/english/ ... 6152590405

[ridiculed]

Australia and NZ. WERE probably the best choices we Brits had to avoid what's coming! These Countries are ahead if us in figuring out the near future of Europe.

Your chances now of moving there is now Zero. If you are very rich, have a business you transfer there. Never been unemployed, Have above average Degrees in particular subjects and much much more. Not one of these things all of them you might get to fill out the forms between the interviews. It takes about 18 months if you are lucky enough to get accepted or rejected.

If you have enough money to live the rest of your life without working and pay your own medical costs for life, conditions are some what easier.

If people riot in France for being ignored imagine what people in Britain will do when they have no food!

[JLefrere]

Ridiculed, what makes you say there's so little chance of being accpeted in NZ/Oz? I really disagree with that. Obviously it does depend on what you can offer them, and for me personally that's not a problem because they want to expand their creative industries. I don't think NZ expects much of a problem in the future if they're planning on developing the services sector as they are. I plan to work there next summer with a global company I worked for this year, and once I've had the employment they request for emigration I will definitely press ahead with getting permanent residence with my family.