The Big Question : Population and Immigration

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 18 Oct 2005, 22:07

We recognise these islands are essentially full up except for the most deserving cases seeking asylum from tyrannies. This will not be easy: as Peak starts to bite, the number of tyrannies are likely to increase world wide.

I think a harsh post peak scenario you elude to , I think the UK and the EU would not accept even genuine asylum seekers.

I am not saying it is right , and it is almost unthinkable in todays PC climate.

But as you say, poverty and unemployment throws the rule book out the window. There was a piece by stanton on the ASPO website (which was very controversial and I didnt agree with most of it), but he said political correctness is afforded now by the cushion of cheap energy. Once that cheap energy is gone , so will the political correctness.

Not nice, but probably true.

Mind you , if we think energy will be in such short supply we cannot even keep the lights on , then bugger knows how thousands of refugees are gonna get halfway around the globe!! We cannot have the doom both ways !

genoxy · Post by **genoxy** » 19 Oct 2005, 01:18

Mind you , if we think energy will be in such short supply we cannot even keep the lights on , then bugger knows how thousands of refugees are gonna get halfway around the globe!! We cannot have the doom both ways !

Yepp, who knows? Maybe in a century's time our grandchildren will be applying for assylum in the financially and culturally rich Babylon, running away from the inquisition... Now there's a thought

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 19 Oct 2005, 09:23

genoxy wrote:

Mind you , if we think energy will be in such short supply we cannot even keep the lights on , then bugger knows how thousands of refugees are gonna get halfway around the globe!! We cannot have the doom both ways !
Yepp, who knows? Maybe in a century's time our grandchildren will be applying for assylum in the financially and culturally rich Babylon, running away from the inquisition... Now there's a thought

LOL good point , I'd never thought of that!!

DamianB · Post by **DamianB** » 19 Oct 2005, 10:23

Does anyone know how many ex-pats live abroad in France, Spain, Portugal and Italy? 500,000? What are they going to do when cheap air-fares come to an end? How many of them will want to return to the bosom of their families if they can't visit or be visited two or three times a year?

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 19 Oct 2005, 10:55

DamianB wrote:Does anyone know how many ex-pats live abroad in France, Spain, Portugal and Italy? 500,000? What are they going to do when cheap air-fares come to an end? How many of them will want to return to the bosom of their families if they can't visit or be visited two or three times a year?

I thought that Spain alone had more than 1,000,000 UK ex-pats.

I think that it will be a problem, and also there will be much anger/hurt associated with all those who've bought holiday homes abroad,

Peter.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 19 Oct 2005, 11:57

Blue Peter wrote:
DamianB wrote:Does anyone know how many ex-pats live abroad in France, Spain, Portugal and Italy? 500,000? What are they going to do when cheap air-fares come to an end? How many of them will want to return to the bosom of their families if they can't visit or be visited two or three times a year?
I thought that Spain alone had more than 1,000,000 UK ex-pats.

I think that it will be a problem, and also there will be much anger/hurt associated with all those who've bought holiday homes abroad,

Peter.

Maybe we could swap them with the 1.2 million south africans and aussies in the UK on visas/work permits.

genoxy · Post by **genoxy** » 19 Oct 2005, 12:54

Blue Peter wrote:
I think that it will be a problem, and also there will be much anger/hurt associated with all those who've bought holiday homes abroad,

Peter.

Only last week my supervisor at work brought this catalog to show me the future holiday flat him and his girlfriend bought in Spain, in an "up-and-coming" holiday resort... Man, they've really been taking my talk about Peak Oil seriously there

So I had to put a brave big fake smile on and tell him it looked lovely

What was I supposed to do? They had to borrow quite a lot to buy it

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 19 Oct 2005, 13:02

genoxy wrote:Only last week my supervisor at work brought this catalog to show me the future holiday flat him and his girlfriend bought in Spain, in an "up-and-coming" holiday resort... Man, they've really been taking my talk about Peak Oil seriously there

So I had to put a brave big fake smile on and tell him it looked lovely
What was I supposed to do? They had to borrow quite a lot to buy it

Indeed. An another forum, someone was talking about moving to Bulgaria. With my PO hat on, I tried to convince him to at least take into account the fact that air travel and long-distance travel in general might become very difficult. I don't think that my comments were appreciated.

Re: Spain, it wasn't Murcia, Costa Calida was it?

Peter.

genoxy · Post by **genoxy** » 19 Oct 2005, 13:55

Blue Peter wrote:

Re: Spain, it wasn't Murcia, Costa Calida was it?

Peter.

I can't remember now, but was somewhere on the eastern coast of Spain... and he also went on explaining to me how it's going to become a leading holiday resort in the coming years, and what a huge investment is going into building it all... Oh dear, that's all I have to say.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 19 Oct 2005, 14:16

genoxy wrote:
Blue Peter wrote:

Re: Spain, it wasn't Murcia, Costa Calida was it?

Peter.
I can't remember now, but was somewhere on the eastern coast of Spain... and he also went on explaining to me how it's going to become a leading holiday resort in the coming years, and what a huge investment is going into building it all... Oh dear, that's all I have to say.

I've seen with my own eyes the number of concrete tower blocks the builders are putting up in Murcia/Costa Calida (which is a very small part of Eastern Spain, and relatively new). I can't believe that they will all be sold,

Peter.

AVERAGE AGE FOR NORTH SEA · Post by **AVERAGE AGE FOR NORTH SEA** » 19 Oct 2005, 17:37

Spain, Southern France, Italy, indeed the whole Mediterranean basin...
This is a tragedy in the making. Peak Oil will bite, but what about WATER?
Not are they only short of water, they will become short of energy to push it around the grid.
Before our high energy way of life, Southern Spain and the rest were populated to finely balanced agricultural limits. Even then, Spain, Italy and Portrugal exported people to the new world.

I talked a family member out of buying in southern Spain. (Dont expect thanks for being a Cassandra though...). The Med seems a lot like Kunstlers future for the South Western States. And of course there is always the possibility that the locals may just want to go back to a low energy, low input agriculture and will not have a great deal of time to service the 'needs' of stranded, water hogging, non- productive, aging pensioners especially when incomes start to flat-line

The whole real-estate industry in the Med is totally dependent on cheap energy. They will need a lot of gas and HC liquids from Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Libya. Assuming it lasts, or is not comandeered.

bigjim · Post by **bigjim** » 20 Oct 2005, 00:12

I think it's quite funny what they're doing in Dubai... the place will be completely dry of oil within the next five years and they're busy trying to turn the place into some sort of well-heeled tourist destination, lots of posh high rise apartment blocks going up everywhere. There's ads for them every Weds in the Independent property section.

I don't think Dubai will be a nice place to be post-peak, dry, hot, air conditioning a must to stay comfortable!

kevincarter · Post by **kevincarter** » 21 Oct 2005, 12:36

All those big ugly blocks by the beach will be just empty ugly blocks, and regarding all the expats living there, well? we the Spaniards will probably run out of money before they do so I guess they?ll be OK. Even after that I don?t think they?ll have bigger problems than the rest of the population if they are able to adapt to the chaos that will strike the Iberic peninsula (I mean, lots of people will have problems, but the expats won?t have BIGGER problems than the rest, just the same kind). The huge amounts of water used there are not for the people permanently living there but for the tourist, we are 40 million and get about 70-80 million tourists each year so we?ll have 2/3 less demand of water. Now if you convince the Power Elite that we don?t need all those golf camps and swimming pools then we got it.

What I?m thinking is, what use can we give to all those concrete monsters? Any ideas?

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 21 Oct 2005, 13:53

Concrete is an effective thermal mass, so very useful in buildings incorporating eco design principles. So, if large slabs of concrete could be salvaged cost effectively from these buildings once they fall into disuse, there would be a ready use for it.

Obviously this then begs the question of how you salvage large blocks of concrete from these buildings without oil to power the heavy machinery you'd doubltess need.

Alternatively, the height of these buildings coupled with the fact that the landscape is already a mess might suggest that the tops of them might make suitable sites for wind turbines?

bigjim · Post by **bigjim** » 21 Oct 2005, 14:47

Joe... there's still some oil around. Peak oil doesn't mean no oil. So if we plan it right (I don't think that we will though) we can still get at those large lumps of concrete in your high rise touristy resorts.

However, if we can't shift the concrete using oil, we'll have to find some other way... slave labour anyone?