Only 6 - 24 months before the world economy fails ...

[clv101]

If prices continue to rise at a pace even roughly resembling the trajectory of the past two years, this gives us 6-to-24 months before total shutdown.

Why? In 6 to 24 months the world will still be capable of producing eighty something million barrels of oil per day... "Total shutdown" is just uber doomer nonsense.

Small perturbations can have disproportional responses. That we?ll only lose a few percent of oil supply over a few years does not guarantee there won?t be collapse.

[snow hope]

If prices continue to rise at a pace even roughly resembling the trajectory of the past two years, this gives us 6-to-24 months before total shutdown.

Why? In 6 to 24 months the world will still be capable of producing eighty something million barrels of oil per day... "Total shutdown" is just uber doomer nonsense.

Why? Because supply chains are so complex and thus vunerable to disruption. There may not be a "Total Shutdown" I'll give you that, but don't discard the possibility of major disruptions that cause other major disruptions that affect us all over that time period. Its called the Domino effect.

[skeptik]

That we?ll only lose a few percent of oil supply over a few years does not guarantee there won?t be collapse.

Ha..double negative. Of course, nothing is certain, but total collapse didn't happen at the start of the seventies or eighties... I do expect that in 2 years time the world will be in a serious recession, or even technically a depression.

At the same time I also expect that 2 years hence I'll still be sitting here in front of my computer, sipping a cold sangria and laughing at the latest nonsense from LATOC, rather squatting in the rubble and gnawing on my neighbours shinbone.

[Totally_Baffled]

If prices continue to rise at a pace even roughly resembling the trajectory of the past two years, this gives us 6-to-24 months before total shutdown.

Why? In 6 to 24 months the world will still be capable of producing eighty something million barrels of oil per day... "Total shutdown" is just uber doomer nonsense.

Small perturbations can have disproportional responses. That we?ll only lose a few percent of oil supply over a few years does not guarantee there won?t be collapse.

Depends on your definition of "collapse".

If you mean recession - then I agree with you.

If you mean the PO version of "collapse" (the zombies and all that) - then I totally disagree with you.

[clv101]

Yes, totally depends on your definition of "collapse". For the record, my definition of collapse is what happened to the USSR. I think it's quite possible for the OECD, and the day to day living standards, to "collapse" in the same way the USSR did. I just think it'll be a bit slower and more drawn-out. I don?t think many Soviets were left gnawing on their neighbours shinbone!

[Totally_Baffled]

gnawing on my neighbours shinbone.

Skeptic you crack me up!

Yes, totally depends on your definition of "collapse". For the record, my definition of collapse is what happened to the USSR. I think it's quite possible for the OECD, and the day to day living standards, to "collapse" in the same way the USSR did. I just think it'll be a bit slower and more drawn-out

Chris - this sounds like a more reasonable prediction to me.

[SunnyJim]

A bit long, but have a read an see if you've heard this recently:

Uncanny.

[Catweazle]

squatting in the rubble and gnawing on my neighbours shinbone.

That's the funniest thing I've read on here and it sums up some peoples "Mad Max" scenarios a treat.

As for farmers losing out, never ! In fact I'd love to be a farmer, food is one thing people will not give up. Sportscars and Spanish holidays may bite the dust but a potato will always sell.

[SunnyJim]

If prices continue to rise at a pace even roughly resembling the trajectory of the past two years, this gives us 6-to-24 months before total shutdown.

Why? In 6 to 24 months the world will still be capable of producing eighty something million barrels of oil per day... "Total shutdown" is just uber doomer nonsense.

As I see it it's not how much oil you produce that matters. It's the 'disparity' between supply and demand. You don't need much more demand than supply to seriously affect prices. Especially with a commodity as important as oil. This means a serious hike in oil prices, and our current way of living becoming untenable. I can imagine if 5 years time, more people in the UK will go cold and hungry. THings will be generally more difficult for us. There will be far more unemployment. It will as Chris says be a similar collapse to that seen in Russia etc. We won't have 'spare money' for luxurys such as DVD's and such nonsense. Many industries that rose on the back of middle class spare cash will fail.

[Aurora]

Not quite Mad Max but what do you think?

[SunnyJim]

Hehehe. That's what my place looks like NOW!!!!

[PS_RalphW]

UK North Sea output is declining - is it 7% or 10% a year? We have recently become a net importer, so we will be importing between 50-80% of our oil in 10 years time (assuming we can afford to do it). Of course, when we talk about 'our' oil, we are talking multinational company's oil, but our government gets a (healthy ?) tax cut on each barrel.

Say we need to import 1/2M barrels /day at $300 or ?150. That equates to
?25B a year. A large fraction of our current balance of payments deficit, and we will also be importing natural gas, and probably French electricity from nuclear, etc.

I don't know how we will be coping, I think ex-USSR is probably right.

However, before then, the third world mega-cities in Indonesia, Pakistan, Africa, etc. will be in mad Max or Mad Mullah meltdown. There is no way to sustain energy and food inputs into those monstrocities. It will be die off. Indonesia is reducing fuel subsidies now, rising prices 30% over night. India must follow soon.

Look at South Africa. We are starting to see lynchings and neckacing of people for being foreign.

[Catweazle]

I'd better start drawing up those plans on how to convert cars into greenhouses.

[nepenthean]

That we?ll only lose a few percent of oil supply over a few years does not guarantee there won?t be collapse.


Ha..double negative.

No double negation here. The first 'not' negates guarantee,whereas the second not is a negation of the 'being' of a collapse. A double negation would be,'...a few percent oil supply over a few years does not not guarantee there will be a collapse.'

[J. R. Ewing]

That we?ll only lose a few percent of oil supply over a few years does not guarantee there won?t be collapse.

Ha..double negative. Of course, nothing is certain, but total collapse didn't happen at the start of the seventies or eighties... I do expect that in 2 years time the world will be in a serious recession, or even technically a depression.

At the same time I also expect that 2 years hence I'll still be sitting here in front of my computer, sipping a cold sangria and laughing at the latest nonsense from LATOC, rather squatting in the rubble and gnawing on my neighbours shinbone.

Yes but back in the 70's and 80's we weren't as advanced as today. Pace of life etc. was slower. Expectancy in general was lower. Today even the Working classes have a great lifestyle, hell even the bennefit classes are living in luxury compared to the 70's and 80's.

A recession/depression will probably bring meltdown today purely and simply because the have nots do still have alot to lose.