We've had it.

[Keela]

Fight us and gain temporary relief from hunger (assuming we dont kill you first) or join us for our mutual benefit - I know what i'd choose.

Its how we (as a species) became successful.

So - the group keeps getting bigger as more and more JOIN rather than fight.

The group's food source is not likely to increase correspondingly. After all this is the main reason that the outsiders are at the door in the first place - they are out of food and want the group's food.

So the increasingly large group will do just fine until the day that some-one feels they were not given their fair share. Then internal friction will escalate until internal strife suddenly reduces the group to a sustainable number again.

If things really get this bad then all bets are off - no solution will work consistently.

So I REALLY hope:
- that general law and order does not break down.
- that the first food scare is just enough to persuade folk of the need for change but that it does not leave them without hope.
- that the majority will take a "war effort" mentality to sorting the difficulties.
- that governments don't try to dictate the collective effort.
- that individuals and groups are given freedom to find grass-roots solutions that can be copied by others.

Realistically though.....

[Vortex]

Do you REALLY think that that Transition Towns run by white middle class

Of course nobody actually 'runs' a Transition Town but in the case of my local Transition Initiative one of the most enthusiastic activists is black and she's a member of the Green Party.

You know what I mean.

Worthy causes are not usually run by illegal immigrants holding down three jobs or by the mega rich from their yachts.

Working families - especially those with children - are also unlikely to have much free time.

It's people with time on their hands and without an urgent need to earn cash who run these sort of organisations ... such as civil servants whose children have left home, and also the well-off retired.

I have been to one well-attended TT meeting and what I saw tended to confirm this.

Pol Pot would have had a field day there ... spectacles, beards, sandals, intellectuals etc in abundance - but not many brawny Sons Of The Soil.

[stumuz]

I saw the first 20mins of the 11th hour and turned it over to watch Shrek 2!
Far better for you and less depressing. When I was in the police we used to have a saying when we saw terrible things, life?s a bitch and then you die.
All this stuff we are seeing now has been faced before, it will be faced again.
There are just a few more of us to face it at the moment, but as Sally says, the group will be trimmed to suit its resources. Always has been.

Just think what happen 150 years ago, infant mortality, diseases, we seem to think we have a right to a long and happy life, we do not. If you get one that is a bonus.

I personally believe we will sort a lot of the mess, we have never sorted all of the mess, and the public awakening at the moment is a joy to hear. For example, on the today programme Humphreys asked Hilary Benn how he can reconcile the Prime Minister asking OPEC to pump more with getting us all to use less. It is becoming an issue where everyone will have the same interest, food fuel and shelter. This is to be contrasted with half the news items a few years ago; they were of interest to some people only. The stock market has fallen; great most people do not directly own shares. The balance of payments has gone down, so what; a loaf will still be the same price the day after tomorrow. But this issue, rising fuel and food prices and scarcity is something which will bring an awful lot of people together by necessity.

Vortex is correct when he describes the TT movement. This dumbing down of life?s basic issues of fuel food and shelter is going to put a whole generation of soft underbellied middle class at a distinct disadvantage with the poor. Life?s basic issues has been have been BIG issues for the poor for a long time and they will be rather good at getting them.

This is going to be the most interesting and enjoyable decade since the war.

[peaky2]

But the key point it was saying to me was that the root of the problem is cultural/spiritual.

I don't have a TV so haven't seen this but I think this is exactly the point. In my last PO tyalk I said in the Q&A session: THis seems to be about oil. Or energy. But really, it's much bigger and deeper than that. This is a spiritual question about how we relate to each other and how we relate to our planet. For us to come through PO then this is the issue we must address otherwise we're stuffed.

I attended the recent Transition Network National Conference and the feeling from everyone there wanting things to work out well was amazing. Very powerful and inspiring.

Vortex, you may have this feeling that we're all stuffed and that Transition Initiatives can't save us. Certainly, they alone can't save us, but I believe they are a crucial part of a solution that can.

We can have two attitudes here:

a) We're f*****d and we might as well top ourselves now/run for the hills with a gun and barricade ourselves in until we're eaten up the famine and the ague.
b) We believe that we have a chance to turn this thing around - we may be wrong but we'll give it a damn good try. That if we come together with a vision and work towards that then we could make this work. No guarantees of course, but otherwise a) is pretty much the alternative.

Until Transition Intitiatives came along there really was no imagined, planned positive solution to what most of us realised was coming when we first read about PO. When I read the Gaia Atlas of Planet Management in 1985 and it played its part in changing my life irrevocably I came home and read up about the Ecology party. I said to myself "If we don't adopt these policies now, we'll just end up with our backs against the wall with a gun at our head and we'll have to adopt them." The only coherent re-envision of the future until Transition was the Green Party (IMHO) which is why I've been a member and involved since 1985 ... but politics moves so slowly and the system is so stacked against minority parties that I don't know that the GP has a lot to offer in these times, except in those few places (Brighton, Norwich, Kirklees etc.) where the Greens well represented on local councils. Caroline Lucas will likely be elected to the House of Commons at the next General Election, but with the ship heading for the iceberg it will take a lot more than 1 Green MP to change course.

So, working together, in community is what will work IMHO. And it will be a hell of a lot more human and fun that the alternative.

[peaky2]

Reading down the rest of this thread I notice there questions over the viability of Transition Initiatives in the years ahead. Middle-class Lib Dems. Human nature. Dog eat dog. etc. But it begs the question: "Do you have an alternative plan that you think could do the job?" It's always easy to criticise, point out flaws and so on, these are important parts of feedback for improvement. But what do you propose in it's place? It's not necessarily the solution but I reckon it's part of it.

If reading and contributing to this board and having a foreknowledge of PO and its implications is simply something for our own advantage, to give us the edge over our fellows, then it's a very selfish use of that information. And if we want to widen awareness the question surely aries as to how that awareness can be usefully employed to help others?

I believe that this is the test of our age - can we mature enough to do the right thing, together? If we can't then the future looks pretty grim. One of the things that marks out our species is our ability to vision, to image alternative futures and to create them. How do you see us creating our collective future together? Or maybe you don't.

[Aurora]

b) We believe that we have a chance to turn this thing around - we may be wrong but we'll give it a damn good try. That if we come together with a vision and work towards that then we could make this work. No guarantees of course, but otherwise a) is pretty much the alternative.

Noble principles to be sure and on this web site I am sure that we are all like minded individuals who would wish such a transition to occur.

There's only one problem - the sheeple.

When TSHTF I'm afraid that logical solutions will be the last thing on their minds. If you've got it, they'll want it.

[stumuz]

When TSHTF I'm afraid that logical solutions will be the last thing on their minds. If you've got it, they'll want it.

Yes, but don?t you think its quite exciting that for the first time in the last 100 years or so, YOU and the chavs will be wanting the same thing?

And I have the feeling that the TT movement is only about safety in numbers because the rough boys will be coming out to play and they want your football?

[RevdTess]

I agree with you peaky. The main problem we face is not actually peak oil or climate change, but the transformation of the way we relate to the planet and to each other. Any culture that's rooted in 'growth', 'land ownership', 'exploitation of resources' and 'social entitlement' is going to respond to new environmental situations and challenges in ways that we (speaking as Greens) believe will lead to ecological and social disaster.

I therefore see cultural transformation as a prerequisite for successful solutions to climate change and peak oil, though my real expectation is that our culture will only be significantly changed by disaster, and not necessarily in a good way. Nevertheless, an expectation of failure is no excuse not to try, and I support any attempt to 'raise consciousness' or find practical solutions to our impending difficulties which are not rooted in private gain and selfish exploitation.

[Adam1]

Do you REALLY think that that Transition Towns run by white middle class Lib-Dems will save us?

Funny. I was in Totnes yesterday, walking down Fore Street, and I noticed that TTT seems to be sharing an office with the local Lib Dems.

[Cabrone]

As has already been mentioned the key point of the (very good) film is that we need to change our perspective on materialism and how we really want to live our lives.

To those who think that the vast majority of people are beyond redemption I'd say that I disagree as I'm living proof that people can change.

Five years ago I would have been classed as one of the 'sheeple' who never really thought further than how much money they were going to spend on useless tat and where they were going to fly off to on holiday.

However after stumbling across, and then reading up on, PO (and then later) climate change my world view has really changed. It didn't happen overnight - it takes time to adjust but If I've done it then many others will too. The penny is only just starting to drop with many people, I just stole a few years on them.

If you can change that mindset then what we end up needing to deliver is actually quite basic: Food, water, shelter and company. As these are all deliverable I think we can get past PO (CC is going to be very tough) BUT only when the rank and file are ready.

I'd like to see more films like 'The 11th Hour', 'Oil Crash' etc as they will only help speed up the process.

[stumuz]

No, these films just sap the energy needed to get through it all, as I stated earlier switched it over to watch Shrek, A far superior film.

What people need is a film with concrete solutions or the PM appearing on a broadcast to the nation pledging us all into a Dunkirk spirit to decouple ourselves from cheap oil and progressive energy issues.

[UndercoverElephant]

So I REALLY hope:
- that general law and order does not break down.

I'm hopeful that in the mature cultures of Europe and Asia, something resembling law and order will remain in place.

- that the first food scare is just enough to persuade folk of the need for change but that it does not leave them without hope.

I'm not sure that's going to work. Unfortunately I think they need to go through a period of losing hope or they will continue to want to hold on to a version of the old ideology. It is OK to hope that a new ideology can be established, but I think you have to go through a period where your belief that the old one can be fixed gets totally shattered.

- that the majority will take a "war effort" mentality to sorting the difficulties.

I'm actually quite confident that in places like the UK, this can happen. Hyde park has been a giant allotment in the past, it can be a giant allotment again.

- that governments don't try to dictate the collective effort.

They won't be able to dictate the collective effort. They'll have too many problems trying to keep the basic infrastructure going.

- that individuals and groups are given freedom to find grass-roots solutions that can be copied by others.

I think this will happen naturally.

[RevdTess]

I'd like to see more films like 'The 11th Hour', 'Oil Crash' etc as they will only help speed up the process.

No, these films just sap the energy needed to get through it all.
What people need is a film with concrete solutions or the PM appearing on a broadcast to the nation pledging us all into a Dunkirk spirit to decouple ourselves from cheap oil and progressive energy issues.

These things don't have to be mutually exclusive...

When presented with apparently opposite solutions, I usually find it helpful to take a step back and look for an approach or principle that would include or permit the different solutions people perceive as necessary.

[UndercoverElephant]

Caroline Lucas will likely be elected to the House of Commons at the next General Election, but with the ship heading for the iceberg it will take a lot more than 1 Green MP to change course.

Actually, even one Green MP can make a big difference, provided she asks the right questions and the right times. I think that in the past, a lone voice like this might have been so ridiculed at PMQs that it would have been ineffective or even counterproductive. But I reckon that by the time of the next general election, people will be sufficiently scared about what is going on that not many people will still be laughing at the silly hippy greens.

[UndercoverElephant]

What people need is a film with concrete solutions or the PM appearing on a broadcast to the nation pledging us all into a Dunkirk spirit to decouple ourselves from cheap oil and progressive energy issues.

People can't be expected to understand the solutions until they have fully grasped the scale of of the problems. Their belief in the old ideology has to be shattered before they can understand why a new one in needed. You seem to view this as negative or "energy sapping". I'm worried that without this negative stage to the process, the positive stage won't work. It's not just energy and food policy which has to change - everything has to change. People just aren't ready for solutions on that scale. They can't see the big picture. Their current fear is based on seeing small parts of the big picture like the price of oil.