Current Oil Price

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 22 May 2008, 12:45

Poo, poo, poo!

I have a meeting at 1PM ... so all you lot will hear the juicy details BEFORE ME ... pah ...

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 22 May 2008, 12:51

Vortex, you have a much better idea of the real juicy details than they will be shelling out on R4 at 1pm. I don't think you'd be learning anything!

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 22 May 2008, 13:30

just listened to (most) of it. Peak oil not mentioned except by Saudi (ex) OPEC spokesman who said it was rubbish. Wickes said key was to talk to OPEC.

Pah.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 22 May 2008, 13:31

Comical Malki (aka our energy minister):

No-one was predicting these high prices. It is the perfect storm..."

on News at One a moment ago. No, he didn't have anything useful to say. Gordon's going to persuade the Saudis to produce more...blah, blah,...

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 22 May 2008, 13:38

I wonder how long before Iran start getting blamed? Somehow, the finger of blame will turn to Iran and public support (bolstered by anger at high fuel prices) could quickly be swung to support some kind of regime change, which would allow the USUK to get in there and get contracts to empty the oil and gas fields.

Or is this a bit synical?

I mean if I can think it, you can bet your arse that the hawks in the white house have thought it.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 22 May 2008, 14:12

get in there and get contracts to empty the oil and gas fields.

If their production is anything to go by, it looks like those fields are mostly empty already!

PaulS · Post by **PaulS** » 22 May 2008, 14:23

But it was good to see the whole World at One program devoted to oil/fuel prices.
However, not one of the contributors has yet actually got it, although some are getting close!

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 22 May 2008, 14:28

Totally_Baffled wrote:
get in there and get contracts to empty the oil and gas fields.
If their production is anything to go by, it looks like those fields are mostly empty already!

Could be. Same was true of the Iraq fields after the sanctions weren't they?

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 22 May 2008, 15:25

RalphW wrote:just listened to (most) of it. Peak oil not mentioned except by Saudi (ex) OPEC spokesman who said it was rubbish. Wickes said key was to talk to OPEC.

Pah.

Great quote from some woman when faced with 'Is there a problem with supply"?

"Well, there's alot of supply and demand going on..."

I smiled at that one.

Really quite an empty peice, focusing on the affects not the true causes. Lots of people drawing parallels with teh 70's which does us no favours at all. Seem to be obsessed with the road hauliers plight. I mean, I feel sorry for them, but we need to stop moving stuff about so much don't we? Lets address the root of the cause, not the bloody symptoms all the time. Grrrrrr.

Nicko · Post by **Nicko** » 22 May 2008, 16:37

I missed the R4 programme, but switched to R5 to hear Simon Mayo talking about it . It went something like this.
" So these prices are going to keep going up?
In the long term, yes.
So the countries economy might grind to a halt?
Yes, probably.
So we are going to have to make some fundemental changes to our way of life?
Well, yes, that looks likely."

No beating about the bush there then!

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 22 May 2008, 17:06

I missed the R4 programme, but switched to R5 to hear Simon Mayo talking about it . It went something like this.
" So these prices are going to keep going up?
In the long term, yes.
So the countries economy might grind to a halt?
Yes, probably.
So we are going to have to make some fundemental changes to our way of life?
Well, yes, that looks likely.
OK, that's sorted. Now on to our next hot topic. Who will Alan Sugar kick out of The Apprentice this week?"

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 22 May 2008, 21:32

ASPO-USA think things are unusual so they have issued a mid week comment. Even the IEA is having second thoughts about 116mb/day by 2030. They must be taking advise from Conoco Philips and Total, who predicted a max of 100mb/day months ago, instead of the other way round.

Peak Oil Notes
Mid-week Comments on Recent Developments

Tom Whipple, Editor
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Prices
Thus far the surge in oil prices is continuing with crude reaching $135 a barrel last night. There were a number of factors behind this week?s increase including the US stocks report showing that US crude and gasoline inventories unexpectedly dropped last week while distillate stocks, which normally increase at this time of the year, went up by only half what analysts had been forecasting. So far this year, US imports are not going well. Crude imports are down by 2.3 percent for the first 136 days of 2008, and the net of oil product imports and exports is down by 18.4 percent largely because of a 15.7 percent gain in product exports.
Other factors behind the run-up are long-term production worries, a falling dollar, short covering, and increased demand from China in the wake of the earthquake. Forecasts from brokerage houses that oil will reach $140 to $200 a barrel in coming months are adding to the anxiety as are falling equity markets and the consequent flight to the perceived safety of commodities.
A notable development in the past few days of oil futures trading was a rapid shift to continuous ?contango? which is a situation in which prices of futures contracts become progressively more expensive into the future. This is the first time that continuous increases have ever occurred in the history of the oil futures market; that means the consensus of the oil traders is that the price of oil will continue to climb steadily for at least the next eight years.
Even with strong fundamental reasons for the current surge, prices have been moving up so quickly that some kind of a correction can be expected soon. The size and length of the correction may provide an insight into the course of oil prices over the rest of the year. The debate over how much speculation there is in current oil prices continued this week when, at a Senate hearing, various senior US oil executive said that without the speculators, the price of oil would be anywhere from $35 to $90 a barrel which is anywhere from $45 to $100 less than current world prices.
The International Energy Agency
This week?s major news came in a Wall Street Journal story reporting on efforts by the International Energy Agency. According to the Journal, ?The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand?.The IEA has predicted for several years that crude-oil supplies will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day now. But the agency is now worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to break beyond 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.?
While the IEA?s report will not be released until November, this story is another indication that there has been a major revision in the IEA?s thinking about world oil production. Instead of forecasting that world oil production would simply keep up with demand, they seem to be making a good-faith effort to describe a more realistic view of future world oil supplies

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 22 May 2008, 21:49

Instead of forecasting that world oil production would simply keep up with demand, they seem to be making a good-faith effort to describe a more realistic view of future world oil supplies

Erm . . . isn't that their job?

peaky2 · Post by **peaky2** » 23 May 2008, 12:00

... various senior US oil executive said that without the speculators, the price of oil would be anywhere from $35 to $90 a barrel which is anywhere from $45 to $100 less than current world prices.

In other words, if the world was different from what it is, things would be different!

It reminds me of "Whatever Happened to baby Jane":

Blanche: "If only I wasn't in this damned wheelchair"
Jane: "But y'are Blanche. Y'are in that wheelchair"

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 May 2008, 12:18

WTI back up to $133 after the 'bubble' at 135 burst down to 131 overnight.

www.gasbuddy.com is showing US petrol at $3.90 a gallon, rising 4 cents a day.