Current Oil Price

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 06 May 2008, 17:44

Mitch, re: volume and price moves: what tends to happen is that a series of funds put in large orders to buy futures contracts into the market, generally through banks. If the hedge fund goes long (buys oil) then the bank has sold oil and is short. When the banks start to hedge this exposure, the volume of trades going through starts to increase; other people will also see what's happening and try to get involved, and the price will tend to move more rapidly at these times as a result. It doesn't mean that the price will definitely go up though. It could just as easily be a down move.

I'm on holiday this week - looks like the market is happily setting new highs in my absence!

Post by **mikepepler** » 07 May 2008, 15:23

May 7th 2007 - oil closed at $61.47 the exchange rate for sterling was $1:?0.5021

May 7th 2008 - oil closes at ??? exchange rate is $1:?0.5070

So, if oil closes at above $122.94 then the dollar price will have risen by 100% in a year. For a doubling of the sterling price a slightly lower close is needed.

What do you think? Possible? I guess it depends on the US stocks data, which is due in 10mins...

It would make an interesting headline if it happens:
"Oil up 100% on a year ago"

May 9th and 10th also closed below $62 last year, so there are some more chances...

Post by **mikepepler** » 07 May 2008, 15:34

Oh well, maybe not today:

U.S. crude supply up 5.7 mln brls last week
U.S. gasoline supply up 800,000 brls
U.S. distillate supply down 100,000 brls
June crude down 55 cents at $121.29/brl in electronic trade

http://www.marketwatch.com/search/?doctype=806

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 07 May 2008, 15:50

I think we will see it in the next couple of days. That build in stocks was entirely due to increased imports. Domestic oil and refinery production both down, demand little changed.

They are paying for oil by printing dollars. The price can only go one way (in dollars).

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 07 May 2008, 16:02

Just spiked to $122.80 ish . Sooner than I expected...

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 07 May 2008, 18:40

new high 123.48

Post by **mikepepler** » 07 May 2008, 18:57

mikepepler wrote:Oh well, maybe not today

I guess I spoke too soon...

$123.76

Maybe we will get that 100% up in a year headline...

Mitch · Post by **Mitch** » 07 May 2008, 19:09

Damn, I missed 123.4. Oh well, I suppose 1234.0 isn't all that far away.....

chris25 · Post by **chris25** » 07 May 2008, 19:31

we may hit $130 by the end of next week if things continue like this

Mitch · Post by **Mitch** » 07 May 2008, 19:42

Jaysus Chris, when does the U.K. economy say "enough's enough, we ain't buying at this price" - Grangemouth or no, it's time to ration? IMHO, before the year is out.

Mitch · Post by **Mitch** » 07 May 2008, 19:47

2012? Eh? Wot? 2012 you say? Dear boy, somewhat over optimistic, what? Now when I were a lad, we had electric...........

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 07 May 2008, 20:09

Mitch wrote:Jaysus Chris, when does the U.K. economy say "enough's enough, we ain't buying at this price" - Grangemouth or no, it's time to ration? IMHO, before the year is out.

Well if Goldman Sachs are correct then we will have $200 oil before year end and that should get us to circa ?1.50 a litre.

To get that in perspective that means ?108 to fill the mondeo, this will be up from about ?50 in 2005/2006.

Ouch!

That is a lot of money NOT being spent on other "stuff" (or jobs if you get me)

Post by **mikepepler** » 07 May 2008, 22:06

Settle was $123.53 - that's an increase of almost 101%.

Wonder if we'll get another doubling over the next 12 months...

For a more balanced approach, the average so far this year is $102.66. At this point last year the average was $59.90 - still a big jump!

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 07 May 2008, 22:22

mikepepler wrote:Wonder if we'll get another doubling over the next 12 months...

I fear the interest on this one might be compound rather than simple.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 07 May 2008, 22:25

Totally_Baffled wrote: That is a lot of money NOT being spent on other "stuff" (or jobs if you get me)

Er, if I know anything about oil production, the dollar bills are not actually stuffed down the drill hole. After we've bought our petrol the money does then get spent on other stuff by whoever recieved the petro-dollars. While we're riding the oil peak plateau economic activity has never been higher.