Is the Credit Crunch affecting YOU?

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 09 Apr 2008, 22:55

Yes, it's had an effect. I managed to get Glastonbury tickets

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 09 Apr 2008, 23:07

JohnB wrote:I thought the 2.5% drop in house prices last month was good news, and hope it continues. Interest rates to savers on some accounts have dropped a bit, that isn't so good, and I hope things don't get so bad that my safe savings aren't so safe.

I looked at a 2 acre smallholding this afternoon, with 4 acres as a separate lot some distance down the lane. It's a long way down an unmade road that might be good when TSHTF, but a bit isolated, and with few people around to help if it's found by starving people with weapons. I reckon the house could be divided, so I could accommodate some WWOOFers, or someone longer term to share it with, so it might not be that lonely. Looking at a small semi with 1.79 acres tomorrow. It's a lot cheaper, but no space for others to live there unless I extend it. They're both in the same auction. But do I try to buy something now, or wait and see what happens? Getting settled with time to prepare, or waiting, maybe until it's too late

John, unless they are going for an absolute song, I would hold fire. I think the property market has only just started to tip downwards and I reckon it has a long, long way to drop. You are going to be in a very strong position and will be able to pick and choose and should end up with something that suits you perfectly.

I would make a long list of what you do and don't want as I really feel it is going to become a buyers market. Big decision for you - don't rush it at the end.

But I am just a guy on the internet so don't rely on my advice.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 09 Apr 2008, 23:43

snow hope wrote:John, unless they are going for an absolute song, I would hold fire. I think the property market has only just started to tip downwards and I reckon it has a long, long way to drop. You are going to be in a very strong position and will be able to pick and choose and should end up with something that suits you perfectly. I would make a long list of what you do and don't want as I really feel it is going to become a buyers market. Big decision for you - don't rush it at the end.

But I am just a guy on the internet so don't rely on my advice.

I do agree, and it's probably my insecurity that makes me nervous about waiting. I missed out on a building plot last year when I didn't go to the auction because I thought it would go for too much, and no one turned up to bid! I'm tempted to go to auctions and see what happens, and maybe I'll get a bargain at current prices. It could be better to have something and be well advanced with developing it. There's lots of work to do building raised beds, greenhouses and outbuildings, improving the soil, insulating the house, installing renewable energy..........

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 10 Apr 2008, 07:28

JohnB wrote:
snow hope wrote:John, unless they are going for an absolute song, I would hold fire. I think the property market has only just started to tip downwards and I reckon it has a long, long way to drop. You are going to be in a very strong position and will be able to pick and choose and should end up with something that suits you perfectly. I would make a long list of what you do and don't want as I really feel it is going to become a buyers market. Big decision for you - don't rush it at the end.

But I am just a guy on the internet so don't rely on my advice.
I do agree, and it's probably my insecurity that makes me nervous about waiting. I missed out on a building plot last year when I didn't go to the auction because I thought it would go for too much, and no one turned up to bid! I'm tempted to go to auctions and see what happens, and maybe I'll get a bargain at current prices. It could be better to have something and be well advanced with developing it. There's lots of work to do building raised beds, greenhouses and outbuildings, improving the soil, insulating the house, installing renewable energy..........

I'm with Snow on this one. Houses will drop 40% IMHO. No rush John. YOu can always hire in labour with the huge amount of money you've saved by waiting.....

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 10 Apr 2008, 07:54

n.b. 10% of employees made redundant at my place of work. Due directly to the credit crisis.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 10 Apr 2008, 08:45

SunnyJim wrote:I'm with Snow on this one. Houses will drop 40% IMHO. No rush John. YOu can always hire in labour with the huge amount of money you've saved by waiting.....

Keep up the persuasion. The auction for the two I'm looking at is on a day I've arranged to be somewhere else, and it's a long drive there and back

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Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 10 Apr 2008, 10:15

JohnB wrote:
SunnyJim wrote:I'm with Snow on this one. Houses will drop 40% IMHO. No rush John. YOu can always hire in labour with the huge amount of money you've saved by waiting.....
Keep up the persuasion. The auction for the two I'm looking at is on a day I've arranged to be somewhere else, and it's a long drive there and back .

Phone the auction house and arrange to be a telephone bidder.

Also, go to a few auctions and learn to spot the serious bidders, and keep an eye on local conditions. I went to an auction in Kent just before a bank holiday weekend, lots of people away for holidays, traffic jams everywhere, accidents on the roads. Result : hardly anyone made the auction and I bought 17 acres for a song

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SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 10 Apr 2008, 10:32

Catweazle wrote:
JohnB wrote:
SunnyJim wrote:I'm with Snow on this one. Houses will drop 40% IMHO. No rush John. YOu can always hire in labour with the huge amount of money you've saved by waiting.....
Keep up the persuasion. The auction for the two I'm looking at is on a day I've arranged to be somewhere else, and it's a long drive there and back .
Phone the auction house and arrange to be a telephone bidder.

Also, go to a few auctions and learn to spot the serious bidders, and keep an eye on local conditions. I went to an auction in Kent just before a bank holiday weekend, lots of people away for holidays, traffic jams everywhere, accidents on the roads. Result : hardly anyone made the auction and I bought 17 acres for a song .

Must have been a bloody good song!

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 10 Apr 2008, 11:02

SunnyJim wrote:
Catweazle wrote:
JohnB wrote: Keep up the persuasion. The auction for the two I'm looking at is on a day I've arranged to be somewhere else, and it's a long drive there and back .
Phone the auction house and arrange to be a telephone bidder.

Also, go to a few auctions and learn to spot the serious bidders, and keep an eye on local conditions. I went to an auction in Kent just before a bank holiday weekend, lots of people away for holidays, traffic jams everywhere, accidents on the roads. Result : hardly anyone made the auction and I bought 17 acres for a song .
Must have been a bloody good song!

So many people spend their money on flash cars and holidays or in the pub every night, yet when they find out that I own land they think I'm rich ! You can buy 20 acres for the price of a Porsche and it'll still be there providing for you and your kids when the Porsche is a pile of rust.

Adam1 · Post by **Adam1** » 10 Apr 2008, 11:07

I'd agree with Catweasle: carry on going to the auctions. If you have fixed on which area you are buying in. It must be the best place to get market knowledge and to get to know others doing the same thing.

I think that prices are going to drop more, how much I don't know. These things tend to take a while to unfold. When or if you jump back into the market will obviously depend on personal circumstances. But also on where you are buying and what sort of property/land. I think (hope?) that, unless and until there is a real rout in the financial sector such that the City of London shrinks significantly, the gap between London/home counties and the rest of the country will increase again. The report earlier in the week on the 2.5% drop in house prices showed a different picture in different places.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 10 Apr 2008, 18:19

I haven't been to any auctions yet! I'd like to buy something in the west country, but am open to other areas. Saw a nice manageable smallholding today. 1.8 acres, small cottage with scope to extend if I want in future, modern barn with stable for a few pigs, a few raised beds, polytunnel and chicken run. Enough to move in and get started straight away. Not an ideal location as there's some traffic noise from nearby main road, but lots of quiet lanes to cycle on, including a closed railway cycle path into town nearby. It's not my dream home, but easily affordable if it goes for near the guide price, and I'd have plenty of cash left for improvements and my future needs. Not suitable for a community, but I could find room for WWOOFers and anyone else who came along for a visit or to help out. Not telling you where or how much as I'm tempted

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leroy · Post by **leroy** » 10 Apr 2008, 20:43

Houses will drop 40% IMHO

IMF reckon a 30% drop in the next few years. Told a couple of property developers that last week, with the response being 'never happen - look how small our country is and how many people there are.'

That'll explain the property prices in Bangladesh then.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 10 Apr 2008, 23:37

There must be few people around with some spare money, or not up to their credit limit yet
Animal dung coffee at ?50 a cup

eatyourveg · Post by **eatyourveg** » 10 Apr 2008, 23:55

I have been to plenty of auctions John, not once, ever, have I seen a property go for anything like the guide price, always way way more.
Guide prices are set low to attract interest, not as a useful measure, that has been my experience anyway.

Post by **mikepepler** » 11 Apr 2008, 08:43

leroy wrote:
Houses will drop 40% IMHO
IMF reckon a 30% drop in the next few years. Told a couple of property developers that last week, with the response being 'never happen - look how small our country is and how many people there are.'

That'll explain the property prices in Bangladesh then.

I think one of the big things will be if something happens that causes European economic migrants to leave, for example a rise in unemployment. I imagine there's a lot of houses rented out to migrant workers, and the perceived lack of housing could change quite quickly...

But I've no idea how/if this would happen - perhaps hard-working east Europeans would keep the jobs and it would be others that would lose them?