What to do in a failing civilization

[Gerontion]

Two points:

1. It's all fine and well making calculations of land available and possible calorific yield based on the most efficient diet of minimal meat and low amounts of imported foodstuffs but if people feel that they?re not getting what they're entitled to - which is pretty much anything they get now, plus an extra 10% - there are going to be problems and the greater the mismatch between provision and expectations of entitlement, the greater the problems.

2. If - as many of you seem to think - Africa gets flushed down the toilet, I wouldn't expect an entire continent to sit patiently awaiting its fate. In the face of the kind of collapse which is on the cards, I would expect truly huge flows of people out of Africa and into Europe. There are already fairly widespread grumblings about immigration/'security' as it is. What kind of fascist response could you expect to face when large parts of a continent come hungrily knocking on Britain's door?

[kenneal - lagger]

What kind of fascist response could you expect to face when large parts of a continent come hungrily knocking on Britain's door?

As I have said before, "Troops on the beaches." On our little island we won't have any choice. And I bet most of the immigrants already here would agree.

The government have powers to put troops on the streets, taken out after the 2000 fuel blockade, in case of "civil unrest" and I don't doubt they will use them. Hopefully they've got the ration books printed as well. (Can anyone else on here remember them? And the orange juice ration bottles?)

[kenneal - lagger]

Are there any rough calculations of how much land a non-fossil fuel society requires?

The guy who did the agricultural side of CAT's Zero Carbon Britain report found that we could feed ourselves now, but with much less meat in the diet, and grow some biofuel as well.

http://www.zerocarbonbritain.co.uk/

There won't be much building in a recession hit UK. It's always one of the first industries to be hit. I know, I've been in it for 42 years and seen it through quite a few recessions.

[Adam1]

The government have powers to put troops on the streets, taken out after the 2000 fuel blockade, in case of "civil unrest" and I don't doubt they will use them.

They'll have to cut back on their overseas military commitments/adventures if they want the troops to be available for use on home ground. I guess they are getting more "appropriate training" out in Iraq-istan than they were during the Cold War.

[leroy]

The only thing that I am sure about when trying to peer into the future is that Africa is facing a perfect storm and that the Mediterranean is going to become much busier with boatloads of refugees and navies preventing their passage to Europe. The IPCC forsees a reduction of rain-fed agriculture in Africa by half by 2020, the World Food Programme will be competing against motorists for cropland and the EU and Russians are trawling the West African coast for their paella, boullibaisse, fish'n'chips or whatever. We are going to have to stop these people. In 'The Revenge of Gaia' James Lovelock opines that we in the West are massively ill equipped to deal with the coming challenges in this century with our widely held humanism. I said we need to build a wall against illegal African migration to Europe in my French class the other day and was told to keep my opinions more moderate.

I wonder what will happen with regards to existing minority communities. I was walking through St Pauls last night thinking about Somalia's plan to irrigate their lands with the Nile, which will cause massive problems for Egypt. How many more Somalis will try to come to Bristol? The thousands of Poles can go back to their giant, broadly agrarian country but Bangladeshis and many Africans will not be so keen. Sorry for the stream of conciousness- this stuff really weighs on my mind.

[leroy]

Sorry, getting mixed up here - just remembered that its Ethiopia that wants to irrigate with the waters of the Nile

[Grizzly Mouse]

The only thing that I am sure about when trying to peer into the future is that Africa is facing a perfect storm and that the Mediterranean is going to become much busier with boatloads of refugees and navies preventing their passage to Europe. The IPCC forsees a reduction of rain-fed agriculture in Africa by half by 2020, the World Food Programme will be competing against motorists for cropland and the EU and Russians are trawling the West African coast for their paella, boullibaisse, fish'n'chips or whatever. We are going to have to stop these people. In 'The Revenge of Gaia' James Lovelock opines that we in the West are massively ill equipped to deal with the coming challenges in this century with our widely held humanism. I said we need to build a wall against illegal African migration to Europe in my French class the other day and was told to keep my opinions more moderate.

I wonder what will happen with regards to existing minority communities. I was walking through St Pauls last night thinking about Somalia's plan to irrigate their lands with the Nile, which will cause massive problems for Egypt. How many more Somalis will try to come to Bristol? The thousands of Poles can go back to their giant, broadly agrarian country but Bangladeshis and many Africans will not be so keen. Sorry for the stream of conciousness- this stuff really weighs on my mind.

My guess is that imigrants already in europe, and those decended from imigrants will be deported to there countries of origin whether they want it or not. By the popular nationalist governments of the future. Either that or to the same kind of resorts German Jews were sent to during WW2.

When there are food shortages Prisons will likely be seen as a waist of resources also, and be replaced much cheaper and more efiecient devices such as guilotines and gallows.

[fifthcolumn]

They'll have to cut back on their overseas military commitments/adventures if they want the troops to be available for

How many "useless" chavs are there in Britain?

[syberberg]

The government have powers to put troops on the streets, taken out after the 2000 fuel blockade, in case of "civil unrest" and I don't doubt they will use them.

They'll have to cut back on their overseas military commitments/adventures if they want the troops to be available for use on home ground. I guess they are getting more "appropriate training" out in Iraq-istan than they were during the Cold War.

Northern Ireland was the training ground for the initial deployment. We were even training the Yanks at one point.

The training for looking after the offshore oil installations was originally conducted in the North Sea by the Royal Marines' Commachio Group and SBS during the Cold War. However, CG are now tasked with looking after the nuclear submarines at Faslane (and elsewhere), along with most civil nuclear facilities and shipments of fuel/spent fuel to be reprocessed, while the SBS now look after the oil rigs.

Unless we have to deal with heavily armed chav militias, Iraq and Afghanistan are slightly different kettles of fish.

[Vortex]

If - as many of you seem to think - Africa gets flushed down the toilet, I wouldn't expect an entire continent to sit patiently awaiting its fate. In the face of the kind of collapse which is on the cards, I would expect truly huge flows of people out of Africa and into Europe. There are already fairly widespread grumblings about immigration/'security' as it is. What kind of fascist response could you expect to face when large parts of a continent come hungrily knocking on Britain's door?

If you want one view of what might happen read the book 'Fugue for a Darkening Island', Christopher Priest, Pan Science Fiction.

It's NOT science fiction - it's about the UK being overrun by 'Afrims' .. African Immigrants.

The 'hero' has his wife & daughter taken and killed in an African brothel camp. A really nice story ...

A YouTube chat with Priest is here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5tycLkxX5Y Well worth watching.

[Vortex]

To continue the theme:

In yesterday's Dispatches: The Inconvenient Truth on Channel 4, Rageh Omaar was investigating immigration.

Apparently 80%+ of the population now believe that we have an immigration crisis ... and that includes many of the first wave of non-white immigrants!

This has led to discussions on the topic in general life becoming acceptable ... rather than having to be behind closed doors.

This could get nasty .... especially if Brown & clan keep saying immigration is good for the UK.

[clv101]

Seem to me that the "immigration crisis" will rapidly evaporate. I checked a couple of weeks ago and the UK Pound has lost 14% against the Polish Zloty since Sept '07. Add to that that wages in Poland are increasing at more than 10% pa means the economic reason to be here is rapidly becoming an economic reason not to be here.

[Vortex]

Seem to me that the "immigration crisis" will rapidly evaporate. I checked a couple of weeks ago and the UK Pound has lost 14% against the Polish Zloty since Sept '07. Add to that that wages in Poland are increasing at more than 10% pa means the economic reason to be here is rapidly becoming an economic reason not to be here.

It's not just the Polish ....

[clv101]

It's not just the Polish ....

A think similar can be said for most economic migrants which are the majority in pure numbers terms. The pound just isn?t what it was a couple of years ago.

[SunnyJim]

At least we can follow if things get that bad.