The UK: How will it end?

[leroy]

Phillip W wrote:

I think we will be surprised how resilient and innovative people and communities are.
If you look at Zimbabwe, they are in a most terrible situation. I would have predicted a collapse and implosion years ago. It still has not happened. The unofficial market has taken over from the official one and life has continued, albeit in extreme hardship by modern standards but not historical standards. Armageddon has not happened.

Whilst I agree with much of the constructive criticism of Phillip W's post I have often reflected on the situation in Zimbabwe. I was talking to a guy from Zimbabwe who was still able to contact his relatives back home from time to time, and was shocked to here that one of the biggest challenges that his family faced was ironing enough clothes and charging mobile phones during the time that the power was on. I am by no means suggesting that there aren't people out there that face a far worse reality than the mentioned family who are presumably wealthy, but as Phillip says life does go on. Like those women on the verge of starvation fighting over lipstick when the allies liberated Auchwitz, people have a strong attachment to normality, to retaining their humanity, to stability. Whilst these values are what are buggering us up (along with our paleolithic greed, of course) they do lend themselves to a more optimistic model of coming events. I recognise the opposing view - the stupidity of massed humanity and the potential violence that could be unleashed, and reckon that global war is a real, and not the worst, possibility - there are worse things than oblivion - but I can't fully believe that we still don't have the chance to pull out of the descent or to deal with it in a way in which life is still worth living.

[Toadstool]

Well written Leroy, I agree with you. But I can't help seeing hardship on the horizon. As we learnt from Iraq, the public can be dead against it yet the government can still do what it likes. It only takes one idiot leader to make a 'tactical nuclear strike' and it becomes a common tactic in war. We were lucky in WW2 only the USA had nukes, today the situation is very different. If it becomes very bad and worldwide power and influence on the whole wanes, then desperate leaders and countries will fight for what power remains.

Another issue that worries me is Britain's domestic reaction to all of this. Too many people in this society are insular to foreign nationals and other religions, and as a result love to blame all their problems on then. Britain's economy could collapse if Peak Oil occurs as we have little to offer via exports and not enough farmland to sustain the population. The population will do the traditional European cultural trait and blame all their problems on someone else, mainly foreign nationals or other religions for 'sponging the system' even though all blame lies with us. This could lead to a lot of support for the BNP or even the NF in the ensuing troubles so don't be suprise if it ends in pogroms against the 'undesirables' Asians, Muslims and even liberals if they get into power.

Scaremongering I know, but don't forget who gained influence the last time the world fell into a serious depression which may shape up to be less severe than a Peak Oil depression.

[emordnilap]

As we learnt from Iraq, the public can be dead against it yet the government can still do what it likes.

's coincidental, I'm reading the biography Under My Skin and this popped up at my lunchtime read:

Since then I've seen the same phenomenon many times and in many contexts: people in power, in authority, never seem to know how the people they govern are living and feeling. It is as if there is some mechanism in the brain that separates them - by the mere fact of being put into power, or a position of responsibility - from the ruled, from an imaginative understanding. Otherwise how can one explain it? Obviously it is in the interests of the people in power to know the situation of their citizens.

It's something that's never failed to amaze me - the disdain from the top and the powerlessness from the bottom. And then people wonder why there's 'disillusionment' with politics!

[Aurora]

Since then I've seen the same phenomenon many times and in many contexts: people in power, in authority, never seem to know how the people they govern are living and feeling. It is as if there is some mechanism in the brain that separates them - by the mere fact of being put into power, or a position of responsibility - from the ruled, from an imaginative understanding. Otherwise how can one explain it? Obviously it is in the interests of the people in power to know the situation of their citizens.

"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men." - John Emerich Edward Dalberg Acton -1887.

[Susukino]

Another issue that worries me is Britain's domestic reaction to all of this. Too many people in this society are insular to foreign nationals and other religions, and as a result love to blame all their problems on then.

Interesting. Would you mind enumerating the other countries that are more welcoming to foreign nationals and other religions, excluding the so-called "starting from scratch" immigrant nations like the US and Canada?

Suss

[biffvernon]

Would you mind enumerating the other countries that are more welcoming to foreign nationals

Syria seems to be top of the class at the moment, welcoming enormous numbers from Iraq despite being in a poor position so to do.

[Susukino]

Would you mind enumerating the other countries that are more welcoming to foreign nationals

Syria seems to be top of the class at the moment, welcoming enormous numbers from Iraq despite being in a poor position so to do.

Biff, firstly this is a special case given that there's a war next door. Secondly, Syria has belatedly realised that it cannot absorb the refugees and has effectively closed the gates. With a shared border of several hundred miles it might not have much choice.

The other issue you do not address is how welcoming Syria would be to a few hundred thousand pork-eating British evangelical Christians if they attempted to move to Damascus.

Suss

[UndercoverElephant]

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How will this all end?

With the adoption of the Euro instead of the pound. We can't collapse on our own, whilst the rest of the EU stays with it's head above the water.

[UndercoverElephant]

. The end of New Labour for a long time.

To be replaced by what? Cameron and the small guy with the squeaky voice? In times of global economic chaos, I can't think of a better person to be Prime Minister than the most successful chancellor in history.

That said, I think we are headed for a hung parliament.

[Adam1]

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How will this all end?

With the adoption of the Euro instead of the pound. We can't collapse on our own, whilst the rest of the EU stays with it's head above the water.

I hope so, but it will take another sterling crisis or two to concentrate minds. The ?:? exchange rate at which we enter will be quite a bit different than it would have been if we'd been in from the outset.

[UndercoverElephant]

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How will this all end?

With the adoption of the Euro instead of the pound. We can't collapse on our own, whilst the rest of the EU stays with it's head above the water.

I hope so, but it will take another sterling crisis or two to concentrate minds. The ?:? exchange rate at which we enter will be quite a bit different than it would have been if we'd been in from the outset.

Anything is better than being sucked down the plughole with the US dollar.

[clv101]

...most successful chancellor in history...

That's an interesting idea. How much blame for the coming economic collapse lies at Brown's door? If a significant amount of blame can be attributed he could end up being regarded as the worse chancellor in history.

[Norfolk In Chance]

I'm not sure how we would define an end but on the way I can see a dismantling of the welfare state as it is seen for what it really is...an experiment in social engineering that went wrong...bit like communism.

[Adam1]

Anything is better than being sucked down the plughole with the US dollar.

Agreed. Better late than never.


On Brown's success as chancellor, I think he will pay a political price because he hasn't been able to accept (and shows no sign of doing so any time soon) the idea of limits to growth. All his notions of economic stability and prudence will be blown out of the water by the changing thermodynamic/energy reality unfolding now. Because the normal political discourse assumes that humans generally and government specifically have largely unfettered power to determine our economic fate, the public and politicians will be looking out for scapegoats. Maybe a moment will come when it becomes politically opportune (not to say unavoidable) to tell people how it really is. Then, depending on how quickly things unfold, maybe a hung Parliament in 2010 will mutate into a government of national unity in during the lifetime of the next Parliament.

[UndercoverElephant]

Anything is better than being sucked down the plughole with the US dollar.

Agreed. Better late than never.


On Brown's success as chancellor, I think he will pay a political price because he hasn't been able to accept (and shows no sign of doing so any time soon) the idea of limits to growth.

The same applies to every finance minister in the G7. None of them appear to understand that we are about to hit Malthus' limit. Although they are learning fast, I think.

All his notions of economic stability and prudence will be blown out of the water by the changing thermodynamic/energy reality unfolding now. Because the normal political discourse assumes that humans generally and government specifically have largely unfettered power to determine our economic fate, the public and politicians will be looking out for scapegoats. Maybe a moment will come when it becomes politically opportune (not to say unavoidable) to tell people how it really is. Then, depending on how quickly things unfold, maybe a hung Parliament in 2010 will mutate into a government of national unity in during the lifetime of the next Parliament.

These are uncharted waters. Anything is possible. But I don't think Gordon Brown will take much in the way of specific blame for causing this mess. Everyone inside the system will claim there was no way of seeing it coming, and the sheeple won't understand that this isn't true.