Current Oil Price

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 17 Mar 2008, 13:48

Tess wrote:Fairly dramatic plummet from 111.79 to 105.11 today... now back up to 107.17

Does that mean they can't borrow enough cash to buy oil

? Or does it mean all the speculators have moved on from oil to wheat (or beans??)

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 17 Mar 2008, 14:13

Tess wrote:Fairly dramatic plummet from 111.79 to 105.11 today... now back up to 107.17

Just when I thought I was beginning to understand the meaning of oil, the economy and everything, then it goes and does this...

I'm glad I don't have to make a living out of predicting where it's going next.

The only thing I do know is that a few years ago a drop of $6 in the space of an hour would have been utterly shocking (as opposed to merely "fairly dramatic" now

).

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 17 Mar 2008, 15:20

Erik wrote:
Tess wrote:Fairly dramatic plummet from 111.79 to 105.11 today... now back up to 107.17
Just when I thought I was beginning to understand the meaning of oil, the economy and everything, then it goes and does this... I'm glad I don't have to make a living out of predicting where it's going next.

The only thing I do know is that a few years ago a drop of $6 in the space of an hour would have been utterly shocking (as opposed to merely "fairly dramatic" now ).

I feel exactly the same way Erik.

I'm away for the day and when I return I can't believe what you've all done to the stock market, the price of oil, gold etc..

Please stop trying to confuse me.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 17 Mar 2008, 15:33

According to Nate Hagens from the Oildrum:

I'm hearing that the Fed/SEC is going to announce some new rules regarding leverage as soon as this week. This is probably why oil was down $5 on the open this am. Look for the commodities (most of them) and swap spreads that have the most volume leaning one way to reverse if this is true. Makes sense to reduce the total amount of leverage available. Carrot didn't work now try the stick. I would suspect this would cause a dollar rally as well.

Peter.

Mitch · Post by **Mitch** » 17 Mar 2008, 15:37

Maybe we should switch to trading in sea shells - even Tulip bulbs would probably be more stable than this lark! I have some pretty pieces of coloured glass, if anyones interested.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 17 Mar 2008, 15:42

Mitch wrote:Maybe we should switch to trading in sea shells - even Tulip bulbs would probably be more stable than this lark! I have some pretty pieces of coloured glass, if anyones interested.

I planted a load of tuli bulbs, they never bloody came up. So if they become our national currency then I'm stuffed

.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 17 Mar 2008, 15:52

RenewableCandy wrote: I planted a load of tuli bulbs, they never bloody came up. So if they become our national currency then I'm stuffed .

The problem is that whoever sold you the bulbs was taking the pee,

Peter.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 17 Mar 2008, 15:56

Aaaaaarrrgh! It was the Eden Project. Hmm I suppose that means the bulbs are far from home. They're probably waiting for weather like a Cornish spring. They may be some time...

Sadly the new rules on Leverage probably prevent me from digging them up

syberberg · Post by **syberberg** » 17 Mar 2008, 16:37

RenewableCandy wrote: Sadly the new rules on Leverage probably prevent me from digging them up

Archimedes: Give me a place to stand and...oh bugger.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 17 Mar 2008, 17:32

WTI now down to 104.47, down $5.70 on the day (and down over $7.30 since the high this morning).

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 17 Mar 2008, 17:37

Now down to 103.25 and yes that's in five minutes since last post.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 17 Mar 2008, 18:24

22 cents off wholesale gasoline (-8%) and 16 cents off wholesale diesel (-5%)

Blimey they must be expecting one hell of a recession!

Lets see what tomorrow will bring!

Either that or it was those darn speculators

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 17 Mar 2008, 18:31

back to 105.70 on the close

syberberg · Post by **syberberg** » 17 Mar 2008, 19:00

Ok, may be barking up the wrong tree here and I'm no expert, just making an educated guess...

The banks have lost shedloads of "money" in the housing bubble burst. They need to recoup that loss so their end your financial year figures look better than expected, boosting their share prices, returning somekind of stability to the markets.

So, they head into commodities, particularly oil. Buy as much as they can, up goes the price, then sell it again. Making a swift profit. The price falls, start buying again...rinse and repeat until the end of March. Sort of like creating a load of mini-bubbles (for want of a better term), which will make the price of oil (or whatever commodity) jump up and down like a frog with a belly full of designer amphetamines on a trampoline.

Is that a plausible scenario?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 17 Mar 2008, 19:05

syberberg wrote:Ok, may be barking up the wrong tree here and I'm no expert, just making an educated guess...

The banks have lost shedloads of "money" in the housing bubble burst. They need to recoup that loss so their end your financial year figures look better than expected, boosting their share prices, returning somekind of stability to the markets.

So, they head into commodities, particularly oil. Buy as much as they can, up goes the price, then sell it again. Making a swift profit. The price falls, start buying again...rinse and repeat until the end of March. Sort of like creating a load of mini-bubbles (for want of a better term), which will make the price of oil (or whatever commodity) jump up and down like a frog with a belly full of designer amphetamines on a trampoline.

Is that a plausible scenario?

Whilst all the time blaming it on peak oil - cunning!

So how much of the price is the speculators? About $5-$10 of it do you think?