Wall Street fears for next Great Depression

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Keela
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Post by Keela »

JohnB wrote:I could cut out the camp sites by WWOOFing, parking up in PowerSwitchers fields(!), and wild camping, and if I can't afford diesel I just don't go anywhere.
Well you know if your ever in N.Ireland...... 8)

Okay so we're a bit off the beaten track.

Mind you the West of Ireland is beautiful and well worth a visit if your a-travelling. :D
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Kentucky Fried Panda
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Post by Kentucky Fried Panda »

So tomorrow the financial world could go into meltdown?

How did America get over the last depression? Don't say prozac...
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

"Black Paddy's Day"...has a certain poetic ring to it, n'est-ce pas? Hmm, a day off work might not be such a crazy idea after all.
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skeptik
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Post by skeptik »

Haggis wrote:So tomorrow the financial world could go into meltdown?
Nah... its not quite like a house of cards, where one card comes out and the whole lot comes down at once.

A better metaphor is a line of dominoes. One goes over and that has repercussions ... the next weakest link goes over then that has repercussions... It takes a while for the consequences of each topple to work its way through the system. "Spreading contagion" - the disease outbreak metaphor is the other one thats been used a lot.

That's what seems to have been happening since the sub-prime mortgage thing blew up last August. And the central banks have been trying to shore things up at every stage. All they've achieves so far is to slow the chain of toppling down a bit. The topple rate does seem to be accelerating, I'll give you that.

'Carl Lantz, interest-rate strategist at Credit Suisse, said: "Bear illustrates the extent of the problems that are out there. I think we are going to continue lurching from one crisis to the next."'
-- from todays Sunday Times.
Last edited by skeptik on 16 Mar 2008, 19:48, edited 2 times in total.
snow hope
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Post by snow hope »

Haggis wrote:So tomorrow the financial world could go into meltdown?
Its not going to be a good day. In fact its not going to be a good week. Some of the people in the financial markets might even start to realise that it's not going to be good again.... :(
Haggis wrote: How did America get over the last depression? Don't say prozac...
The had a war - it was called WWII :shock:
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MacG
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Post by MacG »

snow hope wrote:
Haggis wrote: How did America get over the last depression? Don't say prozac...
The had a war - it was called WWII :shock:
And they had a massive EXPANSION in all respects. Extracted more oil and minerals, built more cars and roads, more houses, shops, offices and factories.

All this expansion of everything was done with money created from nothing, and then lent out at interest. As long as the expansion of the physical manifestations and expansion of oil and mineral extraction was larger than the average real interest charged, everything was just fine.

As soon as we hit some kind of PeakOil in 2005, the physical expansion stopped and people suddenly had problems paying interest on their loans. There was no expansion to borrow more money against.

The only way forward for the existing system now is pure financial expansion - create more and more money in order to be able to pay interest on the old loans. This will of course lead to inflation, but EVERYBODY in charge will promote this solution. It's the only solution they know.

On a very speculative note, if the US is kicked from the world economy, there will probably be oil for continued expansion in eastern Europe and BRIC for another 10-15 years. Maybe 20 years if we have a five year recession first.
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JohnB
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Post by JohnB »

Sally wrote:
JohnB wrote:I could cut out the camp sites by WWOOFing, parking up in PowerSwitchers fields(!), and wild camping, and if I can't afford diesel I just don't go anywhere.
Well you know if your ever in N.Ireland...... 8)

Okay so we're a bit off the beaten track.

Mind you the West of Ireland is beautiful and well worth a visit if your a-travelling. :D
Any more offers? I could save myself a fortune if I could spend the year travelling between everyone's fields :D
John

Eco-Hamlets UK - Small sustainable neighbourhoods
RevdTess
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Post by RevdTess »

MacG wrote: And they had a massive EXPANSION in all respects. Extracted more oil and minerals, built more cars and roads, more houses, shops, offices and factories.

All this expansion of everything was done with money created from nothing, and then lent out at interest. As long as the expansion of the physical manifestations and expansion of oil and mineral extraction was larger than the average real interest charged, everything was just fine.

As soon as we hit some kind of PeakOil in 2005, the physical expansion stopped and people suddenly had problems paying interest on their loans. There was no expansion to borrow more money against.

The only way forward for the existing system now is pure financial expansion - create more and more money in order to be able to pay interest on the old loans. This will of course lead to inflation, but EVERYBODY in charge will promote this solution. It's the only solution they know.

On a very speculative note, if the US is kicked from the world economy, there will probably be oil for continued expansion in eastern Europe and BRIC for another 10-15 years. Maybe 20 years if we have a five year recession first.
Very well put. The UK is also expecting to grow its way out of trouble, increasing borrowing massively over this brief period of economic slowdown... I fear we're forgetting that north sea production is depleting at 10% per year.
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Kentucky Fried Panda
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Post by Kentucky Fried Panda »

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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

JohnB wrote:
biffvernon wrote:
JohnB wrote:I could cut out the camp sites by WWOOFing, parking up in PowerSwitchers fields(!), and wild camping, and if I can't afford diesel I just don't go anywhere.
We've got a field and plenty of wwoofable work. Passing through Lincolnshire?
Don't know. I was there last year and it was rather flat and the roads were a bit scary. But then maybe I should explore it more :).
Flat? Just a rumour. The Lincolnshire Wolds are the highest thing twixt Britain and the Urals, and we've got the east coast's tallest sand dune by our beach. The roads can be scary to those who don't expect sudden right angle turns with deep dykes awaiting the unwary, but we don't do traffic jams. :)
Just off shore the world's largest windfarm is now being constructed.
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JohnB
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Post by JohnB »

biffvernon wrote:Flat? Just a rumour. The Lincolnshire Wolds are the highest thing twixt Britain and the Urals, and we've got the east coast's tallest sand dune by our beach. The roads can be scary to those who don't expect sudden right angle turns with deep dykes awaiting the unwary, but we don't do traffic jams. :)
Just off shore the world's largest windfarm is now being constructed.
I didn't get to the Wolds. Just the flat bit with those long, wide straight roads. Looks like I do need to explore further!
John

Eco-Hamlets UK - Small sustainable neighbourhoods
Aurora

Post by Aurora »

Reuters - 16/03/08

U.S. Federal Reserve officials said on Sunday the U.S. central bank was taking additional extraordinary measures to ensure the broad spectrum of financial firms have access to liquid funds as a credit crisis roils markets.

"The Federal Reserve in close consultation with the Treasury is working to promote liquid, well functioning financial markets, which are essential for economic growth. To that end we took two steps today," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a rare conference call with reporters.

"These steps will provide financial institutions with greater assurance of access to funds," he added.

Senior Fed officials said the unusual weekend announcement came at the culmination of a very challenging series of weeks in financial markets.

Problems at investment bank Bear Stearns posed a major set of challenges for the financial system as a whole, one senior official said.

The timing of the announcements should be thought of as driven by the situation at that troubled financial institution, the official said.
Image :wink:
BBC News - 17/03/08

JPMorgan Chase has said it is to buy Wall Street's fifth-largest investment bank, Bear Stearns, for $2 a share - a fraction of its previous value.

The deal values the bank, which as been at the centre of the US mortgage debt crisis, at about $236m (?116m).

Article continues ...
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danza
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Post by danza »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters ... alert.html
Fed Red Alert
Robert Peston 17 Mar 08, 07:47 AM The US central bank?s latest attempt to inject money and confidence into the financial system is its third in ten days ? and arguably its most ambitious since the 1930s.

The Federal Reserve has reduced the rate at which banks can borrow directly from it, trebled the length of time they can borrow and allowed 20 securities firms direct access to the same facilities.

It is also putting $30bn of US taxpayers? money at risk by providing a lending facility to help JP Morgan acquire Bear Stearns at a knockdown price.

That $30bn is secured against assets of questionable value. And if they turn out to be worth less than $30bn, well the loss will be taken by taxpayers, not by JP Morgan.

To digress for a second, the state-subsidised rescue of Bear Stearns is remarkably similar to the plan for Northern Rock to be acquired by Lloyds TSB last September, which was backed by the Financial Services Authority but rejected by the Bank of England and the Treasury.

The reason for the Fed?s emergency evasive action is that it has become very concerned about what bankers? call deleveraging, or the process of lenders wanting their money back from any creditor perceived as risky.

That puts strains on important financial institutions, such as Bear Stearns, and on the health of the financial system ? which underpins the global economy.

Will the Fed's latest initiatives - including an anticipated half-percentage-point cut in its main lending rate tomorrow - do the trick?

That's very unclear.

The continued fall in the dollar weakens the confidence of global investors in the US.

The Catch 22 for the Fed is that providers of capital may become even more risk-averse having seen quite how worried the authorities have become.
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Bedrock Barney
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Post by Bedrock Barney »

JohnB wrote:
biffvernon wrote:Flat? Just a rumour. The Lincolnshire Wolds are the highest thing twixt Britain and the Urals, and we've got the east coast's tallest sand dune by our beach. The roads can be scary to those who don't expect sudden right angle turns with deep dykes awaiting the unwary, but we don't do traffic jams. :)
Just off shore the world's largest windfarm is now being constructed.
I didn't get to the Wolds. Just the flat bit with those long, wide straight roads. Looks like I do need to explore further!
Well, we're about 70m above sea level and about 1 mile east of us you get to about 140m above sea level. The Wolds are a bit of a surprise to non Lincolnshire types:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincolnshire_Wolds

Parking space also available here in exchange for some digging in our ever expanding veg garden!
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JohnB
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Post by JohnB »

Bedrock Barney wrote:Parking space also available here in exchange for some digging in our ever expanding veg garden!
I believe in no dig gardening, but I do need some exercise :lol:.
John

Eco-Hamlets UK - Small sustainable neighbourhoods
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