important read this president speaks

[SherryMayo]

This speech may be a veiled message to the Saudis/OPEC. The Saudis want to avoid too high a price as they don't want the world scared off oil altogether but they also seem keen on seeing how high an oil price the world can take before it goes hell-for-leather for alternatives see eg the recent OPEC decision not to increase quotas (its also a possibility that OPEC may incapable of producing much more).

I think the speech is Bush's way of responding to OPECS refusal (failure?) to deliver more oil by saying "you've pushed us too far guys - open up the taps or we wean ourselves off oil".

[SunnyJim]

Can't resist the temptation to try out some numbers...

Let's be optimistic and say they get 10 Te per Ha of plant-oil from some crop. 10 Te = 10,000 litres. Plant-oil isn't as energetic as mineral-oil so let's say the equivalent is 8,000 litres of Diesel.

A typical US car does, say, 28 mpg (UK gallons) = 10 litres per 100 km (the 2 figures multiplied together always give 280).

So our US driver can go 80,000 miles a year if he has 1 Ha of land given over completely to biofuels. That's quite a lot of miles for 1 person but not so mad for a Usonian household (mum and 2 teenage kids drive too). They may also lose up to 110 Te of topsoil from said Ha every year, that's about 5mm! (assuming soil's twice as dense as water?)

This is not counting all the extra kit needed for making the biodiesel/ethanol and of course they gotta eat.

There are 300M people in the USA let's say 100M households so very roughly they need 100MHa of land and that's before the truckers arrive on the scene.

The land area of the USA is just over 9M square km, or 900MHa. How much of it, I wonder, is arable? And meanwhile what are the rest of us going to eat?

Looks like they could do it doesn't it? They won't be able to eat so much beef though....

The system would only become halfway sustainable if there was adequate soil management, and distribution and production was kept as local as possible.

Fancy a go at UK figures

[RenewableCandy]

The UK's land area is 240,000 km^2 or 24MHa. 5MHa of it is arable (and another 3MHa of it is forest, says DEFRA). Our arable land could produce 50MTe of biofuel, equivalent to 40MTe of diesel (same ratios as previous post).

There are 27M cars and they go on average 10,000 km per year each. And you could say they were 56 mpg or 5 litres per 100 km (because we're soooo much more energy-efficient than the USA!) and so they use up 13.5Bn litres of fuel per year, or 13.5MTe of fuel.

However I think that 10 Te/Ha is ludicrously optimistic so the said fleet of cars will be driven exclusively by skeletons or cannibals, unless of course we invade France. OTOH if we pack in the motors and leave France alone we'll still be able to import their wine by sailing-ship (that post made my day!)

[Aurora]

I think this cartoon represents the real Bush administration's agenda:

[jonny2mad]

"My job, as the President of the country, is to put pro-growth policies in place. But we're dependent upon oil, and so as our economy grows, it's going to create more demand for oil -- same with China, same with India, same with other growing countries. It should be obvious to you all that the demand is outstripping supply, which causes prices to go up. And it's making it harder here in America for working families to save, and for farmers to be prosperous, and for small businesses to grow.

Secondly, we've got to reduce our dependence on oil and fossil fuels, and replace them with alternative energy sources to power our homes and our work places. Look, you can't have a vibrant economy unless you've got reliable electricity. For those of you in the developing world, you know what I'm talking about. As a matter of fact, the issue is not reliable electricity; the issue is getting electricity to people in the first place. Well, here in the United States, we've overcome those issues. And now we've got to make sure that we have enough of it that enables us to continue to grow.

And the truth of the matter is, you've got to be -- have a growing economy to be able to afford these technologies in the first place. So here are some ways that we're dealing with the issue of electricity. One, I strongly believe the United States must promote nuclear power here in the United States. Nuclear power -- (applause) -- if you're interested in economic growth and environmental stewardship, there's no better way to achieve both of them than through the promotion of nuclear power. Nuclear power is limitless. It's one existing source that generates a massive amount of electricity without causing air pollution or any greenhouse gases. "


notice how he keeps on about growth , he has to grow the economy when biofuels are just going to destroy the soil faster and starve a bunch of people .

no mention of trains or buses or re-designing the country to allow more people to live without driving just keeping the present system running by other means .

I think the speech is quite chilling especially the admission that demand as outstripped supply ,that Id say was one of the things a president would say if he could see rationing very near .


the speech to me sounds desperate and at times he sounds shaken

[syberberg]

I agree jonny2mad about the way Bush delivered this speech. He did not seem at all comfortable with what he was saying, or at least the underlaying message.

[SunnyJim]

I agree. He sounded flustered, scared, and desparate for some technology to step in and save him. Unfamiliar teritory for him.

[emordnilap]

My job, as the President of the country, is to put pro-growth policies in place.

It's not. But that's now how the administration sees itself. It is purely driven by growth to the exclusion of everything else.

And it's making it harder here in America for working families to save, and for farmers to be prosperous, and for small businesses to grow.

Naivety a-go-go, eh? Homespun nauseous buddiness. So big business is alright, according to that statement.

The dependency upon oil also puts us at the mercy of terrorists. If there's tight supply and demand, all it requires is one terrorist disruption of oil and that price goes even higher.

Here we go. The fool is obsessed.

Now, all the countries we import from are friendly, stable countries; but some countries we get oil from don't particularly like us. They don't like the form of government that we embrace. They don't believe in the same freedoms we believe in, and that's a problem from a national security perspective, for the United States and any other nation that values its economic sovereignty and national sovereignty.

Pass the sick bag.

But America is in the lead when it comes to energy independence.

We await, with baited breath.

But 35 miles per gallon by 2020? The automakers killed the electric car. They'll probably kill this too: Bush will not have to take the blame for its failure.

And 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel? Come on, George, honestly.

Note also that he's committing far more money to nuclear than to everything else.