Current Oil Price

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 03 Mar 2008, 19:07

Twits.

That diagram is for a Kalman Filter ... real maths (sort of) ... not this modern binary stuff ... and not fuzzy logic either!

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 03 Mar 2008, 21:36

I'm sure RGR (or even STG) would have spotted that

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 05 Mar 2008, 15:14

Tess wrote:New high of $103.95 today if any of you hippy losers are interested

Don't worry Tess, I have to listen to Vortex et al going on about how civil servants should be hung, drawn and quartered, because we'll all get favoured treatment when TSHTF . . . as someone who works for a council that includes me presumably! Although I fail to see where the favoured treatment is coming from!!

Many angry words are said in the heat of the moment . . . use your spiritual calm and rise above it.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 05 Mar 2008, 15:25

Andy Hunt wrote:
Tess wrote:New high of $103.95 today if any of you hippy losers are interested

Don't worry Tess, I have to listen to Vortex et al going on about how civil servants should be hung, drawn and quartered, because we'll all get favoured treatment when TSHTF . . . as someone who works for a council that includes me presumably! Although I fail to see where the favoured treatment is coming from!!

Many angry words are said in the heat of the moment . . . use your spiritual calm and rise above it.

Civil servants get the goodies NOW ... I met an ex-policeman yesterday .. he retired at 51 !!! He has spent the last 15 years travelling around the world ... and guess who has paid for his fun. I found it hard to remain polite.

Or let's look at:

A NATIONAL Health Service boss who quit after 33 patients died of a superbug outbreak in 2006 is back working for the NHS ? and earning more than ?52,000 a year.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/368 ... in-the-NHS

Or maybe:

More than 50 MPs have laid off members of their staff after the Derek Conway expenses scandal, it emerged yesterday.

The researchers being dismissed by MPs are largely thought to be family members and the mass exodus suggests that many MPs are unwilling to publicly defend or justify their employment.

...

Yesterday, it was alleged that Mr Martin had allowed the shredding of detailed information about MPs' expense claims before April 2005.

Heather Brooks, a campaigner who has challenged the non-disclosure of information about MPs' expenses, said: "This is a parliament that has voted to keep for ever intimate data on private citizens from their DNA to children's exam results, yet when it comes to their expenses they operate a scorched earth policy."

Each MP claims an average of ?135,850 a year in expenses - a total of ?87.6 million. They only have to produce receipts for items of more than ?250.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... ses103.xml

Is it any surprise that the humble taxpayer gets a bit peeved in the face of all this?

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 05 Mar 2008, 15:27

Vortex wrote:Twits.

That diagram is for a Kalman Filter ... real maths (sort of) ... not this modern binary stuff ... and not fuzzy logic either!

I knew that. Think is Kalman filters are still only effective on linear dynamic systems. I'm not sure thats what a trading model is. I think fuzzy logic has the ability to cope better with non-linear dynamic systems, and so would be better at modelling a financial system. Read about such a system here if you're really bored.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 05 Mar 2008, 15:30

I didn't say you were wrong Vortex . . . but not everyone who works in the public sector gets that kind of treatment, for most of us it's very different! And some of us are busy investing our meagre salary in carbon reduction measures! (not many, I'll grant you . . . )

Private sector is no different anyway, you get fat cats paying themselves huge bonuses when their businesses are losing money and staff.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 05 Mar 2008, 15:36

Think is Kalman filters are still only effective on linear dynamic systems.

Modified Kalmans can handle non-linear ... but I only included the diagram because it looked pretty and was to hand at the time!

Update: Just peeked at your link .. I will certainly give that a read .. looks fun! (My interest in Kalmans is sensor data fusion)

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 05 Mar 2008, 15:48

Tess wrote:New high of $103.95 today if any of you hippy losers are interested

I'm doing my bit to force down oil demand...

Diesel prices are skyrocketing today as well. Everyone loves diesel it seems.

I think your posts are great Tess. I love the idea of an oil trader living on a canal boat. It's great to hear what is happening on the trading floor, and lets face it, you're only there because we buy and use oil products. i.e. It's our greed that makes the trading floor possible in the first place. I bet it's an interesting place to work.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 05 Mar 2008, 15:53

A simple, hypothetical question for Tess (or anyone, really, but the horse's mouth and all that):

If nothing else changed except the value of the dollar, what happens to the price of oil to, say, the Brits?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 05 Mar 2008, 17:13

New high $104.54 (we were over $5 up on the day at one point - cant remember a larger rally).

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 05 Mar 2008, 17:13

emordnilap wrote:A simple, hypothetical question for Tess (or anyone, really, but the horse's mouth and all that):

If nothing else changed except the value of the dollar, what happens to the price of oil to, say, the Brits?

The pound is almost as weak as the dollar, but in euro terms the oil price hasnt gone up since mid-Feb.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 05 Mar 2008, 17:17

Tess wrote:
emordnilap wrote:A simple, hypothetical question for Tess (or anyone, really, but the horse's mouth and all that):

If nothing else changed except the value of the dollar, what happens to the price of oil to, say, the Brits?
The pound is almost as weak as the dollar, but in euro terms the oil price hasnt gone up since mid-Feb.

I wonder if it'll get so bad that HMG will reconsider joining the Euro??

oilslick · Post by **oilslick** » 05 Mar 2008, 17:21

RenewableCandy wrote:I wonder if it'll get so bad that HMG will reconsider joining the Euro??

I can see it happening - they might let sterling evaporate first to take all the debts with it.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 05 Mar 2008, 17:22

Tess wrote:
emordnilap wrote:A simple, hypothetical question for Tess (or anyone, really, but the horse's mouth and all that):

If nothing else changed except the value of the dollar, what happens to the price of oil to, say, the Brits?
The pound is almost as weak as the dollar, but in euro terms the oil price hasnt gone up since mid-Feb.

Sorry, being a bit thick as usual.

So what you're saying is, if the dollar weakens but no single other factor alters, the oil gets cheaper for everyone outside the dollar zone?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 05 Mar 2008, 17:39

emordnilap> If the dollar weakens vs the euro, and oil price stays the same (as priced in dollars), then yes it's cheaper for eurozone buyers.

In fact what's currently happening is the dollar is weakening vs the euro, and oil is rising (as priced in dollars), but staying roughly the same for eurozone buyers.

Asian buyers of course have their own currencies to play with.