Oil Production: Will the Peak Hold?

[snow hope]

Well, I wouldn't want to be an oil prospecter! Pickings could be pretty thin on the ground in 15 years!

[SunnyJim]

RGR does make a valid point ... it's probably a good idea to be working in the energy industry rather than simply being a consumer ...

When times get tough some people will be better off than others.

Foundry worker, van driver ... or oil prospector ... which would YOU rather be in say 15 years time?

Depends how global warming takes off..... I should imagine oil industry workers will be spat at in the street if people end up starving due to climate change induced crop failures....

[SunnyJim]

Well, I wouldn't want to be an oil prospecter! Pickings could be pretty thin on the ground in 15 years!

Oil exploration is where it's going to be at. Unless oil exploration companys become so common that the national oil companies can get them to work for commision, i.e. based on how much the find, rather than having to get them in on hourly/daily/monthly rates....

[Vortex]

We'll be needing oil for the forseeable I reckon ... those aircons will need to be manufactured somehow and will need power from somewhere!

[danza]

RGR

You make some interesting and well made points. IMO its good to see someone playing devils advocate on here and to challenge our/ my perspectives.

Your right that if we were to reduce transport based fuel massively we would take the strain off the current demand and have enough oil left for other purposes for a very long time to come. Recently Ive seen some promising examples of how we can have a mass transport system based on electricity provided from huge solar panels set up in deserts in certain parts of the world (one area identified was California as well as Saharan Africa).

Now I do not know how the intricacies of this system would work but the lecture I went to with a couple of powerswitch guys gave me some renewed hope.

However in simple terms, I am concerned that any transition away from "the black gold" were addicted to will not happen quick enough in order to avoid severe economic problems for some time on a global scale.

We need to start a transition now and not enough is being done at present to convince me that we will have a smooth ride.

Also what is your stance on the continuing fossil fuel use and the consequences for climate change?

Sorry for the simplistic nature of this argument but Im not an engineer, a scientist or a facts and figures man.

p.s Just out of interest, why are you browsing and posting on peak oil sites when you do not agree with most of what is posted on here?
Do you think that a our current economic system based on "growth" can continue far into the future?

Danza

[clv101]

But the end of the world is more likely to happen with an asteroid strike then it is by running out of oil.

Who's talking about the end of the world? Peak oil is not comparable to an asteroid strike.

Oil exploration is where it's going to be at.

Oil exploration *should* be a totally dead industry. We already have proved reserves to take us to what the global carbon allowance enables us to burn with out causing unacceptable climate change. We don't need to find anymore 'cos we won't be able to use it.

[biffvernon]

When I graduated in geology in 1973 I thought it would be a good thing if the oil and coal were left in the ground so I did not apply for jobs in those industries. Unfortunately, others thought differently.

[Totally_Baffled]

Oil exploration *should* be a totally dead industry. We already have proved reserves to take us to what the global carbon allowance enables us to burn with out causing unacceptable climate change. We don't need to find anymore 'cos we won't be able to use it.

You are closer to the numbers than me - but I thought there wasn't enough oil (+natural gas) to take us past the carbon limit, but there was more than enough coal?

In other words - if we want to find and burn more oil (which might yield more energy per tonne of Co2), then we have to leave the equivelant amount of coal in the ground?

Or am I splitting hairs?

IIRC - from another post you calculated that is was all the oil + all the gas + 30 years of current coal burn = max carbon allowance (apologies if this is wrong - Im going from memory here! )

[biffvernon]

I'm not too sure about the reality of a 'carbon limit'. It may be that we've already past it and are now on the way to oblivium even if we don't add any more. Or maybe not. Certainly the figures for a 'safe limit' are based more on wishful thinking than science.

[clv101]

Or am I splitting hairs?

My comment was rather glib - the only "take away" is the juxtaposition between efforts going towards discovering more carbon based fuels when we're told we can't really "afford" to burn the stuff we've already discovered.

[RGR]

There is no point in denying in PO RGR it is inevitable.

[RGR]

Well, I wouldn't want to be an oil prospecter! Pickings could be pretty thin on the ground in 15 years!

[RGR]

RGR

You make some interesting and well made points. IMO its good to see someone playing devils advocate on here and to challenge our/ my perspectives.

However in simple terms, I am concerned that any transition away from "the black gold" were addicted to will not happen quick enough in order to avoid severe economic problems for some time on a global scale.

[danza]

RGR wrote

Its a long story. If you are really interested, I will be happy to tell it.

Please do and thank you for your responses.

[RGR]

RGR wrote

Its a long story. If you are really interested, I will be happy to tell it.

Please do and thank you for your responses.