Current Oil Price

jcw · Post by **jcw** » 03 Jan 2008, 20:22

To what extent does the oil price correlate with, e.g. U.S. M3? (M3 official values no longer available, I believe, but surrogate are).

Just to note that the $US and ? monetary inflation are high and perhaps oil has previously lagged fundamental inflation and is now making a catchup.

WolfattheDoor · Post by **WolfattheDoor** » 04 Jan 2008, 08:30

Driving in today, I noticed that one garage had already upped its petrol to 103.9 after being 102.9 for ages.

I remember that when oil rose to around $97 a month or so back, all the garages put their prices up. Then it dropped to about $90 and, oddly, all the prices stayed the same. Now oil rises again and the price of petrol rises. How curious...

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 04 Jan 2008, 10:20

WolfattheDoor wrote:Driving in today, I noticed that one garage had already upped its petrol to 103.9 after being 102.9 for ages.

I remember that when oil rose to around $97 a month or so back, all the garages put their prices up. Then it dropped to about $90 and, oddly, all the prices stayed the same. Now oil rises again and the price of petrol rises. How curious...

There is something strange going on in the US regarding gasoline too (but the other way around)

Someone on PO.com calculated that with oil at $99, gas would be circa $2.40 excluding taxes, refining costs, transport, refining margin etc etc, and yet retail gasoline is still only around $3?

Are the refineries producing gasoline at no profit at the moment?

Even wholesale gasoline is at $2.52 as I type, shouldnt prices be in the $3.5 to $4 region already?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 04 Jan 2008, 10:32

As extensively explained in the same TOD thread, US Gas prices are in their low season. Demand for Gas (petrol) is lowest relative to demand for diesel , heating oil, and other products derived from different fractions of a distilled barrel of oil in mid winter. So demand exceeds supply to some extent, and profit margins are low. Give it a couple of months, and demand will pick up. Then the price should up to about $3.75 for $100 oil.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 04 Jan 2008, 10:46

RalphW wrote:As extensively explained in the same TOD thread, US Gas prices are in their low season. Demand for Gas (petrol) is lowest relative to demand for diesel , heating oil, and other products derived from different fractions of a distilled barrel of oil in mid winter. So demand exceeds supply to some extent, and profit margins are low. Give it a couple of months, and demand will pick up. Then the price should up to about $3.75 for $100 oil.

Thanks Ralph, that makes sense.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 04 Jan 2008, 13:35

very bad US economic data just came out, dollar tanking again.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 04 Jan 2008, 13:42

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/j ... ABE908C%7D

http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollar ... 1720080104

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=asia

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 19 Feb 2008, 19:18

$99.02...

What's going on, Tess?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 19 Feb 2008, 20:09

Old news (a few hours old) but

Platts wrote:NYMEX March RBOB jumps 10.52 cents to $2.5990/gal

New York (Platts)--19Feb2008
March RBOB futures on NYMEX jumped 10.52 cents to $2.5990/gal Tuesday
after opening 9.12 cents higher at $2.5850/gal.

The rally was a broad-based move higher in commodities as the US dollar
slipped once again. Since November 2007, the US Dollar Index has been
range-trading, stuck between an all-time low of 74.484 and 77.854. The US
Dollar Index was 28 points lower at 75.98 at 14:09 GMT. A weaker US dollar
reduces costs for net importers of commodities such as China and India.

"While many are citing the unwinding of carry trades, we have argued that
other forces are at work, citing Commitment of Traders data from the futures
market that shows that the net speculative long yen position, for example, is
among the largest over the past decade," foreign exchange strategists at Brown
Brothers Harriman said in a report.

There was a lack of fresh fundamental news to justify the magnitude of
the rally in the energy sector, with the swing to the upside technically
motivated.

A strengthening in the front of the curve was also behind the rally in
crude oil ahead of Wednesday's contract expiration. March/April traded out to
plus 9 cents after settling last Friday at plus 5 cents.

While the front spread does not always reflect supply/demand
considerations ahead of a contract expiration due to liquidity issues, the
backwardation was spread across the nearby months as well.

March crude oil opened $2.30/barrel higher at $97.80/barrel while March
heating oil opened 6.91 cents higher at $2.7160/gal.

--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 19 Feb 2008, 20:12

15:11 - $ 99.60

Another 40 cents anybody?

Don't suppose this helps:

Alon USA Energy late Monday said it has temporarily shut its 70,000 b/d
Big Spring refinery located 290 miles (467 km) west of Dallas after the
facility was hit by an explosion and fire.
The cause of the explosion, which occurred at approximately 8:15 am
central time, and the extent of the damage are not yet known, the company said
in a statement.
The fire has been contained and is in the process of being extinguished
and a thorough investigation will begin as soon as reasonably possible, it
said.

More

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 19 Feb 2008, 20:26

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose as high as $100.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday. That's a jump of more than $4 a barrel on the day.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/02/19/oil.html

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 19 Feb 2008, 20:36

We've been going up all last week on tight diesel stocks and various refinery outages (EU and US) plus the Venezuelan vs Exxon situation and production outages in Nigeria. Plus every commodity under the sun was going on a stupendous rally as central bankers basically committed to keeping economies running by letting inflation loose. Commodities are always an inflation hedge, especially when the dollar is going down down down. And then today added to that mix, a Nigerian militant leader was allegedly shot in custody after being handed over to Nigerian authorities. And you can bet the militants are just a tad peeved. Threats to start killing (rather than kidnapping) oil workers abound...

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 19 Feb 2008, 21:19

Crude oil spot prices
updated: 19 February 2008 21:10 GMT
USD/bbl
Name Brent Blend 97.77
Tapis 99.95
Alaska North Slope 98.67
Bonny Light 100.22
Dubai 1M 94.13
Forties 97.42
Louisiana Sweet 102.1
Minas 95.9
Oman 1M 92.49
Urals 94.02
WTI 99.96

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 19 Feb 2008, 21:37

Oil closes above 100 dollars for first time

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show ... -time.html

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 19 Feb 2008, 21:58

Vortex wrote: Oil closes above 100 dollars for first time

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show ... -time.html

Apologies this was my fault, I think I said in another thread that with extra production coming online this year, rising inventories coupled with slowing demand due to economic slowdown and reaching the end of the Northern Hemishphere winter - I thought would prices would come down!

Sorry guys

Glad I dont do this professionally or I'd be another Nick Leeson!