The theory of peak oil remains as contentious as ever, and by definition is unresolved. The supporting evidence starts with the bull market in crude prices in recent years, inspiring some to proclaim that global production is about as high as it ever will be.
The optimists counter that technology will save the day, through new discoveries that offset declining production from aging fields and recovering more oil from older wells that would otherwise run dry.
The jury is still out on the big picture, and it may remain so for years. In the meantime, there is no shortage of data to review. Case in point: the reported peak (so far) in global crude oil production came in May 2005 at 74.3 million barrels per day (bpd), as our chart below shows, according to numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In fact, there's been only three months when global production crossed above 74 million bpd, with the latest one coming last October at 74.1 million bpd, or just below the May 2005 summit.
It's any one's guess if the old high will stand or not. And, of course, there are questions about the accuracy of EIA's numbers. In fact, there's skepticism that any database attempting to consolidate such an unwieldy beast as the world's oil production into one number. Nonetheless, everyone will be watching the updates, eager to declare victory for their side. All the more so considering how close last October's total was to the May 2005 apex. As we wrote this article, EIA's monthly production figures run through October 2007. The November report is coming soon.
Meantime, as the world ponders the supply side of the oil market, there's far less mystery on the demand side. In fact, it's the same old story: up, up and away.
Matt Simmons once said 'Judging the data, for instance, on current decline rates on even fields per basin is very hard to define and it turns out that peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late'.
We have surely seen the event in the rear view mirror now.
Agreed. The writing is on the wall. Rear view mirror is telling a pretty clear story. Even if the May 2005 Peak is exceeded in November 2007, it is pretty irrelevant to the scheme of things.
Anybody hanging on to the fact that we may not have peaked, obviously hasn't got hold of the reality of the situation we face.......
What shocked me recently (in a link posted by somebody) was that David Strachan isn't forecasting Peak until 2017 up to 2020. ....... Huh!
The point is not the peak it's whether you are an exporter or an importer.
In four years we will have no oil left. None at all.
Before that (mid 2009) we will be back to being an importer.
Right now we have to import an increasing portion of our natural gas from increasingly fickle exporters who are also growing their own domestic consumption.
We don't have enough coal to last (at current consumption rates) more than a couple of years.
I suspect we will be completely unable to get our hands on any kind of hydrocarbons at all by 2012.
Contrary to the fluffy bunny happy middle class posters on here who think that they can just buy some PVs and plant a few fruit trees we are facing some serious shit within less than five years.
Here's my predictions for their future:
They will have their stuff taken from them by either angry masses who blame them for their predicament (the government will blame the evil hoarders in order to get the blame off themselves).
OR
The government will take their stuff
OR
They will be press ganged into some forced labour on behalf of "the public good" and while they are gone their stuff will be pilfered
OR
The government will freak out and the British Empire will rise from the dust and they will be conscripted to go fight the new wars of resource colonization in west africa.
Here's my predictions for their future:
They will have their stuff taken from them by either angry masses who blame them for their predicament (the government will blame the evil hoarders in order to get the blame off themselves).
OR
The government will take their stuff
OR
They will be press ganged into some forced labour on behalf of "the public good" and while they are gone their stuff will be pilfered
OR
The government will freak out and the British Empire will rise from the dust and they will be conscripted to go fight the new wars of resource colonization in west africa.
I like your drastic point of view fifth column but I think your sighting the most doomerish worst case scenario.
danza wrote:
I like your drastic point of view fifth column but I think your sighting the most doomerish worst case scenario.
Unfortunately I think this doomerish scenario is the most likely.
It's not the worst either.
If the government decides to go down the "take the oil off of africa" route we are likely to be nuked by some disgruntled other state.
We are an easy target due to our overpopulation.
Basically we are due for being an incredibly poor, violent police state with masses of starving people.
snow hope wrote:Agreed. The writing is on the wall. Rear view mirror is telling a pretty clear story. Even if the May 2005 Peak is exceeded in November 2007, it is pretty irrelevant to the scheme of things.
Anybody hanging on to the fact that we may not have peaked, obviously hasn't got hold of the reality of the situation we face.......
What shocked me recently (in a link posted by somebody) was that David Strachan isn't forecasting Peak until 2017 up to 2020. ....... Huh!
He accepts the Saudi reserve figures as is, and believes that there will be far more oil found than is supposed by ASPO etc. I think his is a very optimistic assertion, but even if correct I'm convinced, given past behaviour, that we will just squander that time too, only by then there will be far more people, infrastructure and GDP being supported on a finite resource base than ever before.
"The human species may be seen as having evolved in the service of entropy" - David Price.
Aurora wrote:We have surely seen the event in the rear view mirror now.
I'd be one to agree with you, Aurora. Colin Campbell held that peak regular conventional oil would peak summer 2005, total oil 2010. IIRC, Hubbert's view was that peak would occur around the turn of the century. A pretty accurate prediction, if you ask me.
fifthcolumn wrote:Probably by next wednesday I expect.
What ever happens and however fast, it's going to take the vast majority of the population by surprise. Our best chance is in educating people, but even that will leave a desperate situation. My favoured approach is to start localising. Those people currently trying to do something about Climate Chane are most ready to listen concerning Peak Oil...
We are in for a big recession which will drop production of goods and the oil price. People won't have the money to prepare for lack of oil but anyway the price of oil will drop a bit and the deniers will stop anyone with any money investing in insulation of renewables.
So things will drag on for a bit and get a little bit better again until we start the growth/recession cycle again. A few might prepare but not many, after all, we'll be dead by the time the oil runs out!!
BLOOD & THUNDER PROPHET:
...And the bezan shall be huge and black, and the eyes thereof red with the blood of living creatures, and the whore of Babylon shall ride forth on a three-headed serpent, and throughout the lands, there'll be a great rubbing of parts. Yeeah...
FALSE PROPHET:
...For the demon shall bear a nine-bladed sword. Nine-bladed! Not two or five or seven, but nine, which he will wield on all wretched sinners, sinners just like you, sir, there, and the horns shall be on the head, with which he will...
BORING PROPHET:
...Obadiah, his servants. There shall, in that time, be rumours of things going astray, erm, and there shall be a great confusion as to where things really are, and nobody will really know where lieth those little things wi-- with the sort of raffia work base that has an attachment. At this time, a friend shall lose his friend's hammer and the young shall not know where lieth the things possessed by their fathers that their fathers put there only just the night before, about eight o'clock. Yea, it is written in the book of Cyril that, in that time, shall the third one...
1855 Advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil -
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."
The Future's so Bright, I gotta wear Night Vision Goggles...
snow hope wrote:
What shocked me recently (in a link posted by somebody) was that David Strachan isn't forecasting Peak until 2017 up to 2020. ....... Huh!
Did you read the small print? Is he talking about conventional crude or total hydrocarbon liquids?
Aurora wrote:
Matt Simmons once said 'Judging the data, for instance, on current decline rates on even fields per basin is very hard to define and it turns out that peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late'.
Last edited by RGR on 30 Jul 2011, 02:51, edited 1 time in total.
....... Huh!
