Hurricane Rita

hatchelt · Post by **hatchelt** » 22 Sep 2005, 08:37

Cat 5?! jesus...the entire world's gonna feel this one

andyh · Post by **andyh** » 22 Sep 2005, 08:56

It may still be that it declines to a cat 4 by the time it makes landfall - certainly the US forecasters think it may still weaken a bit after the next 12-24 hour period - however a cat 4 making landfall will beplenty bad enough if Katrina is anything to go by.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 22 Sep 2005, 09:29

The nasty thing is that they are shutting refineries in Texas as a safety measure. If the US was in deficit of petrol and diesel already, shutting even more refineries will certainly not help.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 22 Sep 2005, 09:54

The big issue is not whether it's a cat 4 or cat 5, but whether it hits Galveston directly (worst case scenario) or makes landfall some distance to the west. [edit: or East!]

isenhand · Post by **isenhand** » 22 Sep 2005, 10:00

MacG wrote:The nasty thing is that they are shutting refineries in Texas as a safety measure. If the US was in deficit of petrol and diesel already, shutting even more refineries will certainly not help.

Storm triggers mass US evacuation

US authorities said that more than 70% of oil production in the Gulf has been shut down.

Sky · Post by **Sky** » 22 Sep 2005, 10:52

current forcast is bang on Galveston

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fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 22 Sep 2005, 12:15

From the people who brought us the rig-damage estimation model ( http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... x_oil.html ) comes a refinary damage model

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... _root.html

They deserve an "A" for effort

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 22 Sep 2005, 13:30

Here's a seriously detailed map of Gulf of Mexico oil infrastructure (pre-Rita).

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 22 Sep 2005, 15:40

hatchelt wrote:Cat 5?! jesus...the entire world's gonna feel this one

Hurricanes are a bit like peak oil. They ramp up, hit a peak, and then ramp down again. Rita ramped up remarkably quickly from storm to 5, but shes fortunately peaked out to sea, as most do.

Category 4 or 3 will still make a huge mess. Looking on the bright side, as everybody has been watching the horrible sights from NO on their TV, I imagine they are more inclined than usual to get out of the way...

grinu · Post by **grinu** » 22 Sep 2005, 17:39

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 454.shtml?

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

grinu · Post by **grinu** » 22 Sep 2005, 19:18

It's expected to weaken a bit more before landfall.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropi ... enter_news

Hurricane Rita, now a category 4 storm as the storm, has featured a slow rise in pressure. It continues to be a very dangerous storm, however.

Rita is forecast to continue on a west-northwestward track through the Gulf of Mexico over the next 8-12 hours. A turn toward the northwest is anticipated Thursday night and Friday.

If there is any good news at this point, it is the fact that the hurricane probably reached its peak intensity overnight. Rita may now be entraining some drier mid-level air from over the western Gulf of Mexico and Texas into its western side, causing the slight decrease in wind speed and increase in pressure.

Rita should still make landfall as a large, intense, major hurricane with impacts extending well away from the center. Hurricane force winds extend 75 miles away from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles from the center. Landfall is possible early Saturday along the Texas or southwest Louisiana coast. Residents and tourists in locations such as Port O'Connor, Bay City, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Galveston, Texas City, Houston, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Cameron and Lake Charles should ALL prepare for a very dangerous landfalling major hurricane.

A hurricane warning is now in effect for coastal Texas and Louisiana from Port O'Connor to Morgan City. Hurricane conditions are expected in the next 24 hours and all preparations should be finished as soon as possible. In addition, a tropical storm warning is in effect south of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield in Texas and from east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. A tropical storm watch is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the Pearl River including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain and south of Port Mansfield to Rio San Fernando in northeast Mexico. Rita may stall after landfall and could produce some major flooding rains over parts of northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana.

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 22 Sep 2005, 21:32

Check this interesting gif-anim from space

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 23 Sep 2005, 12:23

Houston seems to have the biggest traffic jam in the history of motoring. Gas stations were rationing motorists to $10 worth so they drive a few miles and then run out.

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 23 Sep 2005, 13:21

biffvernon wrote:Houston seems to have the biggest traffic jam in the history of motoring. Gas stations were rationing motorists to $10 worth so they drive a few miles and then run out.

I wonder if the traffic jam alone will become a noteworth crisis, before Rita arrives ???

grinu · Post by **grinu** » 23 Sep 2005, 13:57

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/21/news/ec ... ta_threat/

Rita could equal $5 gas
The timing and strength of the latest storm could cause worse spike at the pumps than Katrina did.
September 22, 2005: 9:32 AM EDT
By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money senior writer

If Rita hits both the Houston-Galveston area, as well as the Port Arthur-Beaumont region near the Texas-Louisiana border, that could take out more than 3 million barrels of capacity a day, according to Bob Tippee, editor of the industry trade journal Oil & Gas Journal in Houston.