It's going to be a VERY long time before manual labour is cheaper than diesel... so long it's not worth considering. I'm with Stuart on this one.chris25 wrote:Why would you put thousands of quids worth of diesel into your mega tractors, when you have a workforce who will willingly be employed for 1/10 of your machinery costs?
Relocalisers bopped by Stuart Staniford (TOD)
Moderator: Peak Moderation
Chris, you are comfortable and well off, and live in the city. You probably don't have a feel for how fragile and desparate some peoples lives are in this country.
I grew up in Cornwall (almost 3rd world back then), where I have spent a week or two pulling brocolli for ?1 per hour. That was 15 years ago. I used to do Daffodil picking, daff bulb sorting, potato harvesting etc.
Some people are very poor in this country, and cash in hand work on farms can attract alot of workers when times are bad. February was a great time in Cornwall. Pubs were full and plenty of parties. All because of the Daffodil picking season. That may not be true at the moment, but most in Cornwall have been living off released equity, or cheap borrowed money. The fields will be full again soon though.....
Many crops can't be harvested by machinery and those crops have been largely avoided or scaled down in recent years due to the economics of and expensive workforce, but I can see them becoming profitable again sometime soon.... e.g. Cabbage, Brocolli, lettuce, radish etc.... this will mean a return to the farms for some.
The point is some jobs just can't be done by machinery and diesel, and these will become economically viable again and alow people back to the land.
I grew up in Cornwall (almost 3rd world back then), where I have spent a week or two pulling brocolli for ?1 per hour. That was 15 years ago. I used to do Daffodil picking, daff bulb sorting, potato harvesting etc.
Some people are very poor in this country, and cash in hand work on farms can attract alot of workers when times are bad. February was a great time in Cornwall. Pubs were full and plenty of parties. All because of the Daffodil picking season. That may not be true at the moment, but most in Cornwall have been living off released equity, or cheap borrowed money. The fields will be full again soon though.....
Many crops can't be harvested by machinery and those crops have been largely avoided or scaled down in recent years due to the economics of and expensive workforce, but I can see them becoming profitable again sometime soon.... e.g. Cabbage, Brocolli, lettuce, radish etc.... this will mean a return to the farms for some.
The point is some jobs just can't be done by machinery and diesel, and these will become economically viable again and alow people back to the land.
Jim
For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.
"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.
"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
An interesting example of the complex post-peak factors that make predicting the future so difficult, even on a regional basis.SunnyJim wrote:The point is some jobs just can't be done by machinery and diesel, and these will become economically viable again and alow people back to the land.
PO pundits have focused, perhaps rightly, on supply, but changing patterns of demand are going to have a tremendous influence on how the post-peak world pans out. Many commentators seem to assume that demand for oil inhabits only two points on the continuum: full-blown 21st century American excess or some pre-industrial state of zero demand. There are an almost infinite number of points in between. I see no reason why society should not more or less gracefully degrade into a state of lower oil usage as demand adapts to tighter supply. It doesn't have to move within a week or two from the current level to virtual oil starvation.
Suss
Fair point. My point was that diesel and mechanisation is dramatically cheaper than manual labour, even with fuel costs increasing several-fold. Since agriculture consumes a relatively small amount of total fuel we can assume prices won't rise dramatically therefore industrial agriculture will not be priced out by manual labour.SunnyJim wrote:The point is some jobs just can't be done by machinery and diesel, and these will become economically viable again and alow people back to the land.
Sure there are some jobs that can't be mechanised and these will become more economically viable if people are willing to work for less. But I see no reason why this would have much of an impact on conventional industrial agriculture.
I agree, we won't see farm machinery disappear overnight, but I don't think that means that we won't see more people working on the land again.
For example, which do you think would be more productive on a 1000 acre farm;
a) One farm hand with a huge powerfull tractor.
b) Three farm hands with small compact tractors?
I would think b) as smaller tractors can plant closer rows and three men would be in three different places at once, making more of the land. This is what we could see, so it may well be the end of the road for the truly huge tractors.
Similarly, if we start seeing more variety on farms due to more workers to manage it, then we may see that small bales return to favour. For ease of distribution to different animals... etc etc.
Who know's really. Farming is fickle, and is often manipulated by grants and subsidies which could all distort what we may or many not think will happen, but the point is agriculture will change, and it is likely that more people will be employed in that sector.
For example, which do you think would be more productive on a 1000 acre farm;
a) One farm hand with a huge powerfull tractor.
b) Three farm hands with small compact tractors?
I would think b) as smaller tractors can plant closer rows and three men would be in three different places at once, making more of the land. This is what we could see, so it may well be the end of the road for the truly huge tractors.
Similarly, if we start seeing more variety on farms due to more workers to manage it, then we may see that small bales return to favour. For ease of distribution to different animals... etc etc.
Who know's really. Farming is fickle, and is often manipulated by grants and subsidies which could all distort what we may or many not think will happen, but the point is agriculture will change, and it is likely that more people will be employed in that sector.
Jim
For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.
"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.
"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
I agree with Jim on this one. If there's one commercial community in the UK that is pretty much guaranteed to co-operate with each other it's the farmers.
As fuel etc. costs rise, there will be a reduction in machinery, but it'll take quite a while for it to completely disappear. Individual farms may not have a combine each, for example, but you'll find 2 or 3 combines servicing 10-15 farms in the local area. The same with tractors and trailers. Canibalisation for parts will also happen.
As for the harvesting side of things, my brother used to work on a fruit farm in Kent, mainly apples and rhubarb, all the harvesting was done by hand and the produce was then moved from field to shed by tractor. The majority of the workforce was from Eastern Europe (and this hasn't changed much) thanks to Thatcher's destruction of the native, British travellers who always used to provide the labour. Once the downslope starts to bite, you can be pretty much assured that the Eastern Europeans will hightail it back home and things will go back to what they were once again. But that's not going to happen overnight.
Also, as the distribution network contracts and subsidies start to dry up, farmers will start to diversify their crops. Or at least I hope so. What I also hope to see happen is that bio-diesel is used exclusively for farmers, emergency services and road haulers (where it makes sense to use it and the acreage needed will be far less) and out of the hands of private motorists (where it's a complete waste). IMHO of course.
As fuel etc. costs rise, there will be a reduction in machinery, but it'll take quite a while for it to completely disappear. Individual farms may not have a combine each, for example, but you'll find 2 or 3 combines servicing 10-15 farms in the local area. The same with tractors and trailers. Canibalisation for parts will also happen.
As for the harvesting side of things, my brother used to work on a fruit farm in Kent, mainly apples and rhubarb, all the harvesting was done by hand and the produce was then moved from field to shed by tractor. The majority of the workforce was from Eastern Europe (and this hasn't changed much) thanks to Thatcher's destruction of the native, British travellers who always used to provide the labour. Once the downslope starts to bite, you can be pretty much assured that the Eastern Europeans will hightail it back home and things will go back to what they were once again. But that's not going to happen overnight.
Also, as the distribution network contracts and subsidies start to dry up, farmers will start to diversify their crops. Or at least I hope so. What I also hope to see happen is that bio-diesel is used exclusively for farmers, emergency services and road haulers (where it makes sense to use it and the acreage needed will be far less) and out of the hands of private motorists (where it's a complete waste). IMHO of course.
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RenewableCandy
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I'm glad somebody finally mentioned the subsidies...from what I understand the kind of large-scale farm we have now simply isn't viable without them.
The subsidies are directly proportional to land area, so big farms get more cash and that goes some way to explaining the 'consolidation' of small family farms into large agribusinesses that we have been seeing so much of lately.
I can see this process reversing if and only if large farm owners sell off parts of their land, for example, to raise the cash to buy/repair expensive kit, and if there are suitable buyers who have the savvy to run a farm.
The subsidies are directly proportional to land area, so big farms get more cash and that goes some way to explaining the 'consolidation' of small family farms into large agribusinesses that we have been seeing so much of lately.
I can see this process reversing if and only if large farm owners sell off parts of their land, for example, to raise the cash to buy/repair expensive kit, and if there are suitable buyers who have the savvy to run a farm.
It isn't just the percentage of the energy supply used by agriculture and the relative financial cost of mechanisation that will determine how things unfold; in many parts of the the US, e.g. California, and, closer to home, southern Spain, it's water.
Also, the mechanised farm is likely to experience systemic failures. The equipment requires specialists and spares to maintain them. Energy inputs for irrigation need to be timely. The timing of these types of failures are hard to predict.
Because it produces large surpluses, big, mechanised agriculture, even if it continues to work as now for some time, needs lots of other infrastructure to be intact, in particular, the electrical grid and the warehouse-on-wheels food distribution system. Given the state of the grid here in the UK....
Finally, just like energy infrastructure, it takes some time to change the way we produce and distribute food. Lots of people need to reskill and relocate. All the just-in-time infrastructure and the mentality that goes with it need to be "re-configured".
Also, the mechanised farm is likely to experience systemic failures. The equipment requires specialists and spares to maintain them. Energy inputs for irrigation need to be timely. The timing of these types of failures are hard to predict.
Because it produces large surpluses, big, mechanised agriculture, even if it continues to work as now for some time, needs lots of other infrastructure to be intact, in particular, the electrical grid and the warehouse-on-wheels food distribution system. Given the state of the grid here in the UK....
Finally, just like energy infrastructure, it takes some time to change the way we produce and distribute food. Lots of people need to reskill and relocate. All the just-in-time infrastructure and the mentality that goes with it need to be "re-configured".
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biffvernon
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With grain prices where they are now and probably will be in the future, cereal farming in eastern England does not need subsidies. Farm machinery is often shared - much combining being done by contractors - but this is to maximise return on capital invested in large machinery. The fuel cost is a relatively small part.
If you consider an oil-less world, horses were worth using instead of manual labour for many tasks but needed a lot of land to grow the fodder. You need less land growing biodiesel to feed tractors and combines, so I can't see any end to the mechanisation of cereal growing - even after the last drop of oil has been sucked from the rocks.
If you consider an oil-less world, horses were worth using instead of manual labour for many tasks but needed a lot of land to grow the fodder. You need less land growing biodiesel to feed tractors and combines, so I can't see any end to the mechanisation of cereal growing - even after the last drop of oil has been sucked from the rocks.
I've lived in the countryside all my life. I've seen super-mega rich land owners, I've seen poorer farm labours been chucked out of their homes. Where the heck did that statement come from? Im not even arguing against you and I agree with your comments!SunnyJim wrote:Chris, you are comfortable and well off, and live in the city. You probably don't have a feel for how fragile and desparate some peoples lives are in this country.
This is as usual overstated. How long does it take people to gen up on something "new"? (And in many cases it is not new but simply no longer mainstream.) One growing season? Two? They will learn again. It's no big deal and it's not so far in the past that the skills are completely lost. People adapt. In large parts of the country farmers never really left a semi-cooperative mode. When I was a kid 20 years ago farmers used to go round in turn each others farms to help with the haying. If you went to Aberlleinau to get the hay in they they would come to help you out Penllwyncoch. That memory is still fresh in the minds of the 40 year olds that control today's farms in Wales. That model will emerge again if it is required. You have no trust in it because you didn't see for yourself how it worked. You are dealing with it on an intellectual level rather than on the basis of somebody with actual experience. Maybe in Idaho or Arizona the experience was different; I don't know. But closer to home the repositories of knowledge still exist.Adam1 wrote:Lots of people need to reskill and relocate. All the just-in-time infrastructure and the mentality that goes with it need to be "re-configured".
Suss
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Miss Madam
- Posts: 415
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Errrr.... he was talking to the other Chris clv101.... and relax....chris25 wrote:I've lived in the countryside all my life. I've seen super-mega rich land owners, I've seen poorer farm labours been chucked out of their homes. Where the heck did that statement come from? Im not even arguing against you and I agree with your comments!SunnyJim wrote:Chris, you are comfortable and well off, and live in the city. You probably don't have a feel for how fragile and desparate some peoples lives are in this country.
Shin: device for finding furniture in the dark
I thought we were talking about the UK, not anywhere else.Adam1 wrote:It isn't just the percentage of the energy supply used by agriculture and the relative financial cost of mechanisation that will determine how things unfold; in many parts of the the US, e.g. California, and, closer to home, southern Spain, it's water.
I beg to differ about the "specialisation" part. The BTEC ND in Agriculture (as offered by Sparsholt College, Hampshire. 2 years, full time) covers Principles of Machinery and Machinery Operations.Also, the mechanised farm is likely to experience systemic failures. The equipment requires specialists and spares to maintain them. Energy inputs for irrigation need to be timely. The timing of these types of failures are hard to predict.
Then there's the C&G NC in Agriculture (1 year full time) that covers Tractor Operation and Maintenance, Machinery Operation and Machinery Maintenance. As well as Health and Safety Certificate, FEPA (spraying) Certificate and a Rough Terrain Fork-lift Certificate.
And finally for the full time courses, there's Land-based Mechanisation: BTEC ND in Land-based Technology (2 years full time).
As for spares, there shouldn't be any shortage of those for years and canibalisation will add to that length as well.
Irrigation in the UK is only really a problem in the rain shadow of the southeast, and then that's mainly because of the population density and that it's cheaper for the water companies to pay fines than to fix leaks (which is a bloody crazy way to regulate anything, if you ask me).
Another point is that I fully expect the government to step in with the kind of offers they currently have for teachers to help fill in the skill gaps.
True, but I have a feeling that's one thing HMG will make sure works for as long as possible. Especially the distribution side of things. Not sure about the grid though, they'd probably have to renationalise that the same way they did with Railtrack.Because it produces large surpluses, big, mechanised agriculture, even if it continues to work as now for some time, needs lots of other infrastructure to be intact, in particular, the electrical grid and the warehouse-on-wheels food distribution system. Given the state of the grid here in the UK....
Can't argue with that. It's about time the country towns and villages became proper places to live rather than supplying holiday homes for the rich and feckless. Now there's a thought, how many barn conversions will have to be reconverted? Or will it be a case of: "Sorry mate, but I need that barn conversion to house the workforce more than you need a 6 bedroom, 2 bathroom holiday home. Oh and that idyllic country view is going to spoiled by the new barn I need. And we'll be putting solar HW and PV on the roof. And your lovely garden (that you hardly maintain) is being turned into a chicken run and I'll be needing your pond for the ducks. Complain all you like mate, but I have a shotgun and you don't."Finally, just like energy infrastructure, it takes some time to change the way we produce and distribute food. Lots of people need to reskill and relocate. All the just-in-time infrastructure and the mentality that goes with it need to be "re-configured".
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RenewableCandy
- Posts: 12777
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All good stuff as long as they can keep going through fuel shortage/mother-of-all-recessions.syberberg wrote: I beg to differ about the "specialisation" part. The BTEC ND in Agriculture (as offered by Sparsholt College, Hampshire. 2 years, full time) covers Principles of Machinery and Machinery Operations.
Then there's the C&G NC in Agriculture (1 year full time) that covers Tractor Operation and Maintenance, Machinery Operation and Machinery Maintenance. As well as Health and Safety Certificate, FEPA (spraying) Certificate and a Rough Terrain Fork-lift Certificate.
And finally for the full time courses, there's Land-based Mechanisation: BTEC ND in Land-based Technology (2 years full time).
You might be disappointed...syberberg wrote: Another point is that I fully expect the government to step in with the kind of offers they currently have for teachers to help fill in the skill gaps.
Now I can imagine them doing that, because failure to do so will lead to immediate panic.syberberg wrote: ...but I have a feeling that's one thing HMG will make sure works for as long as possible. Especially the distribution side of things. Not sure about the grid though, they'd probably have to renationalise that the same way they did with Railtrack.
Ooooh, bagsie being the one with the shotgun...syberberg wrote: ...It's about time the country towns and villages became proper places to live rather than supplying holiday homes for the rich and feckless. Now there's a thought, how many barn conversions will have to be reconverted? Or will it be a case of: "Sorry mate, but I need that barn conversion to house the workforce more than you need a 6 bedroom, 2 bathroom holiday home. Oh and that idyllic country view is going to spoiled by the new barn I need. And we'll be putting solar HW and PV on the roof. And your lovely garden (that you hardly maintain) is being turned into a chicken run and I'll be needing your pond for the ducks. Complain all you like mate, but I have a shotgun and you don't."