Last Light

[clv101]

And remain the world's 6th largest manufacturing economy (link).

[alexscarrow]

One thing to keep in mind is that, courtesy of a global economy, a tiny proportion of any product - food or otherwise - goes from raw material to consumable product in this country. Because labour is so much cheaper abroad, a farmer might grow a raw crop here, but it ends up being shipped thousands of miles (refrigerated of course) to be prepped, cleaned, diced and packaged, before it's consumable back in this country. And when it comes to non-edibles....where once we used to manufacture own own cars, now we mostly manufacture the wing mirrors/fluffy dice.

I'm not talking down the UK....hell no. But I do worry about how dependent we are on our trade links - energy security being the biggest worry.

[clv101]

...where once we used to manufacture own own cars...

Come on, the UK doesn?t just make fluffy dice! Honda have a massive factory in Swindon making the Accord, Civic and CR-V many for export. Production (and employment) was increased this year to quarter of a million. Nissan have their world leading plant in Sunderland producing over a third of a million cars a year, Toyota have a factory in Burnaston, Derbyshire producing more than a quarter of a million Avensis and Corollas, Vauxhall produce cars and engines at Ellesmere Port. Ford make a lot of engines in the UK with the Dagenham plant being their ?global centre? for diesel engines and the transit van is made in Southampton.

So just a couple of minutes Googling:
Honda in Swindon 250,000 cars (4,900 jobs)
Nissan in Sunderland 400,000 vehicles (5,000 jobs)
Toyota in Burnaston 285,000 cars (4,600 jobs)

Here?s a government report:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... 99/399.pdf

It shows that in 2005 the UK manufactured 1.8 million vehicles in 2005 (1.6 million cars).

[alexscarrow]

well yes..you're right, we don't just make fluffy dice. I was being pithy.

However, I think it's safe to say that we're well on our way down the slope from being the industrial powerhouse we once were. Another decade and the only thing we'll produce in this country are financial products, crap reality TV, cream teas and tasteful movies.

[Bozzio]

So just a couple of minutes Googling:
Honda in Swindon 250,000 cars (4,900 jobs)
Nissan in Sunderland 400,000 vehicles (5,000 jobs)
Toyota in Burnaston 285,000 cars (4,600 jobs)

Yes, but out of a workforce of over 29 million these employment figures are rather poor. According to the National Statistics, 10% of the UK workforce is in the manufacturing sector.

Another 30 second google thows up the fact that we are behind India in vehicle production output and that Japan produces almost 7 times the number of vehicles as we do. And not one of these companies is British. Just look at how much debt Ford has. I can't imagine UK job security being a top priority for Ford when the oil price rises even further.

[clv101]

What is true - and the source of the incorrect old wives tale that the UK doesn't manufacture anything anymore - is that manufacturing employment is down. We still make lots, just we don't need lots of people to do it anymore. Employment is down as we tax employment highly and don't tax energy/raw materials very high. I'd like to see less tax on employment and more on raw materials.

The UK uses buys some 2.2 million cars a year and produces around 1.6 million. Not self sufficient but it's still a large and significant industry.

[Bozzio]

We still make lots, just we don't need lots of people to do it anymore. Employment is down as we tax employment highly and don't tax energy/raw materials very high. I'd like to see less tax on employment and more on raw materials.

Found this article in the Telegraph from last week. It suggests the move to use cheap labour abroad is slowing and as you say Chris, the UK has increased productivity in order to compete.

UK manufacturing to survive credit crunch

According to EEF, which is due to publish its manufacturing review for 2007/2008 next month, the UK is the world's fifth largest manufacturer, boosted in particular by the pharmaceutical, aerospace, food and drink, and electronics sectors.

Mr Radley said that the trend of moving manufacturing from the UK to developing economies like India and China where labour is cheaper was slowing, and that Britain had increased productivity by 25pc in the last year in answer to the competition.

I guess the problem is whether we have the means to increase manufacturing in the future as markets change. I used to live in Sheffield in the late 80's, early 90's, and watched the old steel works, of which there were many, being transformed into shops, cinemas, leisure centres, arts centres or just pulled down. Sheffield is just one retail and leisure city now as is Manchester, Birmingham, Newcastle and Liverpool.

[Adam1]

I have just read Last Light and I thought it was a very gripping story that gives a very vivid picture of how a worst-case rapid collapse could pan out.

Having read it, I wonder whether I have been feeling too complacent about things recently. PO has or had become the norm and I'd stopped feeling any fear.

I was listening to Richard Heinberg being interviewed by Jason Bradford on the Reality Report and Heinberg made the point again that we need both hope and fear together to provide the right mix of motivation to get us moving.

I'm debating whether to give this book to some of my friends and family. Some may decide that I've become a conspiracy freak, so I'd have to give with a 'health warning'.

Well done Alex - I thought the structure of the story, with the rapid switches between scenes and the fast pace would lend itself well to being made into a film. Any chance of that happening?

[mikepepler]

Having read it, I wonder whether I have been feeling too complacent about things recently. PO has or had become the norm and I'd stopped feeling any fear.

Ditto. It reminded me that there are ways a fast crash can happen... I read it right after The Road as well, so I was left thinking I ought to go and buy a gun by the end of them both!

I'm debating whether to give this book to some of my friends and family. Some may decide that I've become a conspiracy freak, so I'd have to give with a 'health warning'.

I've given it to my Mum, who is PO aware, and has made limited preparations. My Dad's also aware, but "doesn't read novels"...
My intention is to scare them into taking some action - they are already convinced of the ultimate need, but need convincing to start promptly! Although the conspiracy element of the story could be off-putting, I think most people will see past that and get the idea that it only takes a few serious problems before the economic/social system could come under extreme stress.

[alexscarrow]

Hi Adam,

glad you enjoyed it. Yuh....it's a book designed to jolt the unknowing blinkered public into getting off their collective asses and rethinking the wasteful, lazy world we live in.

Obviously it's just a book that people will read, worry for a while about stuff, then forget - but, hopefully it'll help to put across the issue of energy security in a very visceral in-yer-face way.

So please...share the book, pass it around. (Shucks, I'd like to sell more books, but far more important is that it is read and the issue's profile raised)

[Adam1]

...So please...share the book, pass it around. (Shucks, I'd like to sell more books, but far more important is that it is read and the issue's profile raised)

I think, in the end, people quite often buy second copies of books they want to pass on to others. And if they don't, maybe the person they lend it to will buy a copy for someone they know.

I agree Mike that some people may latch on the conspiracy element in the book and assume that peak oil is being propagated by conspiracy theorists. I'll just need to point out that the conspiracy described in the book is just a dramatic device, not the main point of the book.

[Totally_Baffled]

What is true - and the source of the incorrect old wives tale that the UK doesn't manufacture anything anymore - is that manufacturing employment is down. We still make lots, just we don't need lots of people to do it anymore. Employment is down as we tax employment highly and don't tax energy/raw materials very high. I'd like to see less tax on employment and more on raw materials.

The UK uses buys some 2.2 million cars a year and produces around 1.6 million. Not self sufficient but it's still a large and significant industry.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_g ... r-industry

I thought this league table was interesting.

One criticism I read a lot of the UK economy is that its only "25%", manafacturing or industry/ real economy now - we dont make bugger all.

But look at this table of % of GDP comprised of industry.

The UK is at 25%, which is quite low compared to some - however those with a high % are mostly off a low GDP base or are significant oil producers (look at the first 7 countries in the list!)

If this table is correct , then the UK is ahead of France, Japan, the Netherlands, and the USA.

Hell even Germany is only at 29%! India is only at 19%.

Guess nobody makes anything anymore ! (except the Chinese who buck the trend at 48%!)

[Eternal Sunshine]

Finished this book the other day. I really enjoyed it, it's a real page turner. It's a frightening reminder of the horrible possibilities if society starts to break down for any reason. I also watched 28 Days for the 1st time last week.

Probably main thing I got from reading Last Light was that I'd started feeling a bit complacent about PO. The initial shock has worn off with me, so it's good to be reminded of some of the things that worried me when I first started really thinking about our reliance on oil.

It's even got me thinking I should buy some kind of a weapon just in case.

[alexscarrow]

Take this opportunity to reinvigorate yourself on this issue. Now PO is beginning to flip into mainstream awareness, all of us hardcore PO-aware types should give the issue a real nudge.

Energy security will be the issue of 2008.

nb: glad you enjoyed it....would you be prepared to lend it to a friend?

[Bedrock Barney]

Well, I've completed my reading and......enjoyed it!!

Very nicely paced and an interesting counter point to the novel I read before it - the classic 'Earth Abides'.

Not entirely convinced about the conspiracy elements of the story but the swift breakdown of society was frightingly realistic. I would have welcomed more detail on the worldwide impact of the events - I'm not the biggest fiction reader these days and tend to gravitate towards books with stacks of descriptive content (ie 'The Stand' or 'Fade-out' by Patrick Tilley) or more often than not I opt for non fiction.

I was sufficiently spooked to buy the Katadyn water filter that had been on my peak prep list so thanks for nudging me in that direction!

I'm intending to leave the book lying around in the house in case any friends/family see it and then ask to borrow. I've also left David Strahan's Last Oil Shock on the coffee table as well. Very difficult to suggest these books as reading matter without coming across as a doomer nutter as others have described on this forum.

Thanks for the story Alex! Let's hope it remains fiction for the forseeable future!