Hurricane Rita

Post by **mikepepler** » 21 Sep 2005, 09:24

hatchelt wrote:this really is shaping up to be the winter of discontent, especially if it's going to be as cold as everyone's saying.

Get your warm clothes and camping stove ready!

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 21 Sep 2005, 12:58

Rita is now Category 4
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1137.shtml

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 21 Sep 2005, 12:59

Rita is now Cat 4 with sustained wind at 135mph.
Galveston flood wall is designed for a 10 foot tide - that's not enough.

grinu · Post by **grinu** » 21 Sep 2005, 13:05

It's only just started crossing the Gulf - does that mean it will get even bigger?

hatchelt · Post by **hatchelt** » 21 Sep 2005, 13:14

I've seen wires here at the bbc saying it could even reach Cat 5...and judging by the temperature of the sea over there, I'd say that's a reasonable worry.

Post by **clv101** » 21 Sep 2005, 13:30

Rita is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, making this the fourth-busiest season since record-keeping started in 1851. The record is 21 tropical storms in 1933. Six hurricanes have hit Florida in the last 13 months. The hurricane season isn't over until Nov. 30.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/Weather/wireSt ... 235&page=1

grinu · Post by **grinu** » 21 Sep 2005, 13:31

I hope they manage to co-ordinate the evacuation more cleanly this time. This is terrible.

On a peak oil note - 26% of America's total processing facilities are in Texas. ..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... world_news

If Rita ``continues westward it will threaten the Houston Ship Channel and the many refineries along the Texas coast,'' said Marshall Steeves, an analyst at Refco Inc. in New York. ``We already have about 4.8 percent of refining capacity out indefinitely because of Katrina and can't afford to lose more.''

Hurricane intensity is rated on a scale of 1 to 5. Category 3 storms have winds of 111 to 130 mph, while Category 4 storms have winds of 131 to 155 mph. Hurricane Katrina was a Category 4 storm when it stuck near New Orleans, killing hundreds and causing billions of dollars in damage.

Texas' 26 refineries have the capacity to process 4.6 million barrels of crude oil a day, or 26 percent of the U.S. total, according to the Energy Department.

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 21 Sep 2005, 13:44

grinu wrote:It's only just started crossing the Gulf - does that mean it will get even bigger?

Yes.. thats likely. But its a toss up as to whether it will still be at category 5 when it hits the coast. Hurricanes generally do not stay at that strength for very long.

Whatever . Its still going to make a hell of a mess wherever it hits. This is like the worst case scenario for US energy supplies that you could think of. A big hurricane hits the east end of the Gulf oil and gas offshore infrastructure, the Inland refineries and New Orleans, then another one comes in and hits the West end of the offshore production and Galveston/Houston.

All the major models are now in agreement that it will hit the Texas coast. Exactly where is still impossible to say. And if you blink you might miss something. Hurricanes have a habit of unexpectedly changing speed and direction after days of rolling along the expected track, often just before landfall as Katrina did.

Post by **clv101** » 21 Sep 2005, 13:52

I was thinking that Katrina would be enough to cause real energy shortages in the US this winter and maybe even tip them into recession next year. If Rita can take out any gas platforms/pipelines and/or refineries as well for any significant length of time then those previous thoughts have got to come true haven't they?

Post by **mikepepler** » 21 Sep 2005, 14:35

clv101 wrote:I was thinking that Katrina would be enough to cause real energy shortages in the US this winter and maybe even tip them into recession next year. If Rita can take out any gas platforms/pipelines and/or refineries as well for any significant length of time then those previous thoughts have got to come true haven't they?

I agree. They are already in serious trouble on natural gas supply after Katrina, and Rita should pretty much seal their fate. I wonder what strategies will be implemented to cope with it?

Of course, we mustn't get too smug - we have our own gas problems, as discussed elsewhere on the forums...

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 21 Sep 2005, 15:43

mikepepler wrote: Of course, we mustn't get too smug - we have our own gas problems, as discussed elsewhere on the forums...

And especiialy not since the "global economy" means we feel many of the effects over here as if rita was much closer.

AND not since any more unusual responses to serious US problems might well take the form of something we dislike and effects us negatively.

I hope tho they have learned from Katrina and get EVERYONE out in good time, which I think is likely.

Post by **mikepepler** » 21 Sep 2005, 15:44

Rita has a well defined eye now:

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 21 Sep 2005, 18:40

Rita may be 'national disaster': oil CEO

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050921/bs_ ... ero_ceo_dc

Bill Greehey wrote: "You've got refineries that will start shutting down in anticipation of the hurricane, and then if any of them have permanent damage, we're going to be dependent on imports. Following Katrina, this is really serious."

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 21 Sep 2005, 19:04

mikepepler wrote:"Deal with reality or reality will deal with you"
Dr Colin Campbell

Are you SURE it is Campbell? I think it is Matt Savinar.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 21 Sep 2005, 19:06

fishertrop wrote:Rita may be 'national disaster': oil CEO

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050921/bs_ ... ero_ceo_dc

Bill Greehey wrote: "You've got refineries that will start shutting down in anticipation of the hurricane, and then if any of them have permanent damage, we're going to be dependent on imports. Following Katrina, this is really serious."

I find the waiting rather unpleasant. This could end up just about any way.