Recession

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 21 Dec 2007, 10:30

Problem is, if the price of oil etc falls due to a recession, renewables won't look so good in comparison. So just when we need to be putting everything we have into renewables, the economics won't really stack up.

Unless the government intervenes . . . or common sense, or something.

Post by **clv101** » 21 Dec 2007, 10:39

SunnyJim wrote:However if there is a world wide recession it can only do good in my opinion. Slower plundering of resources. Less CO2 emissions, a more steady powerdown....

Russian CO2 emissions fell 31% in the 5 years post Soviet collapse. A recession is the best thing that can happen regarding climate change.

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 21 Dec 2007, 10:45

My 2p is this:

Recession will be in our face much sooner than PO will.

Bonfire of the vanities indeed.

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 21 Dec 2007, 10:51

SunnyJim wrote:Yeah, it's unbelievable isn't it?

I suppose what is at stake here is the future of the economic system. If people loose savings in a bank run then the whole industrys fecked.

Not necessarily.
What we're really talking about is the monetary system and specifically the fact that the pound is debt money.
Inevitably due to the nature of governments simply letting debts build up and never paying them down, even with with magic-moondust-powered energy systems, the monetary system would eventually collapse.

So what will happend?
The pound will crash and be replaced by some other, equally useless bit of paper.
But the key point is that the amount of debt will be renegotiated in some way that makes it (temporarily) lighter to bear.

Of course, people who have their savings in pounds will be fecked, but many of those who have debts based in pounds will more-or-less be let off the hook of their debts.
Not to mention that the entire middle class will be wiped out and the average standard of living will be much lower.

THEN we have to deal with peak oil.
Ha. It's a jolly old life.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 21 Dec 2007, 11:15

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/

Update from Evan, our trade deficit is more then 5.7% of GDP and larger than the US!

The pound is going down - which will make the black stuff more costly to import...

Mind you us powerswitchers could of told Evan all this 2 years ago!

"there could be trouble ahead, there could be moonlight and music ......."

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 21 Dec 2007, 11:19

"Look out there's danger ahead
The endless summer is dead
So believe what you read there's danger in the air . . . "

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 21 Dec 2007, 11:28

"Can you picture what will be
So limitless and free
Desperately in need...of some...stranger's hand
In a...desperate land "

Bring it on!!!!! Yeah! Let the bad times roll.

Have you noticed that music is much better during a recession?

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 21 Dec 2007, 11:28

fifthcolumn wrote:My 2p is this:

Recession will be in our face much sooner than PO will.

Bonfire of the vanities indeed.

Ha! Recession IS PO!!!!

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 21 Dec 2007, 11:31

Totally_Baffled wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/

Update from Evan, our trade deficit is more then 5.7% of GDP and larger than the US!

The pound is going down - which will make the black stuff more costly to import...

Mind you us powerswitchers could of told Evan all this 2 years ago!

"there could be trouble ahead, there could be moonlight and music ......."

Wait till all the bond insurers ratings collapse. Going to make 'Sub-prime' look like the understatement of the decade....

Robert Peston at the Beeb.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 21 Dec 2007, 13:59

SunnyJim wrote:
Totally_Baffled wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/

Update from Evan, our trade deficit is more then 5.7% of GDP and larger than the US!

The pound is going down - which will make the black stuff more costly to import...

Mind you us powerswitchers could of told Evan all this 2 years ago!

"there could be trouble ahead, there could be moonlight and music ......."

Wait till all the bond insurers ratings collapse. Going to make 'Sub-prime' look like the understatement of the decade....

Robert Peston at the Beeb.

Yes I read this too..

So if Bond ratings are lowered , big bond holders will be obliged to sell (as they only hold bonds of certain ratings) therefore there is even less money (via bond purchases) for loans?

This on top of the losses from investing x in bonds and now there only worth x - x% due to lower demand?

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 21 Dec 2007, 14:29

Yup.

Have you seen his latest ramblings. Commercial Property is now falling down the mineshaft too...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters ... nched.html

This really is going to be some kind of depression eh? The amounts being talked about are frightening. Especially the bonds ratings.

Basically there are $500 TRILLION in derivatives. If the people insuring the AAA ratings on those derivatives have their credit ratings adjusted and their insurance bonds rated as junk, you can just see the TRILLIONS dropping from that valuation until there is sod all left.

Post by **clv101** » 21 Dec 2007, 14:50

$500 trillion? The global economy is only some $47 trillion annually.

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 21 Dec 2007, 15:03

clv101 wrote:$500 trillion? The global economy is only some $47 trillion annually.

Yup. Derivatives, nothing but promises and confidence are worth over $500 trillion. Moody & Poor's re-rating of the bond insurers could well be the start of the 're-pricing' of all those derivatives.....

Global Derivatives Market Expands to $516 Trillion

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 21 Dec 2007, 19:55

SunnyJim wrote:Have you noticed that music is much better during a recession?

Yep, Sex Pistols, music with hairy balls

(to paraphrase Bill Hicks)

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 22 Dec 2007, 13:33

SunnyJim wrote:Moody & Poor's

Great name for a financial services company.

PowerSwitch

Recession

My 2p

Re: My 2p