Hurricane Rita

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 19 Sep 2005, 23:01

clv101 wrote:Can't remember the last time I saw prices jump $3.50 in a single day, is this just Rita or is Iran causing any of this? Has any more information about Katrina damage surfaced?

...and natural gas is up 10%.

The big jumps in price occurred today whenever new weather reports came out comfirming bad news about Rita. Anyone who paid attention to the weather over the weekend and bought crude at 8am this morning would have done very nicely thankyou very much.

Incidentally, our in-house weather people recommend this website as superior to the National Hurricane Center for track forecast:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

The NHC forecast is an attempt to be 'least wrong', but seeing the various computer models gives a much better idea of when a hurricane path is more or less certain.

As I understand it, the red line methodology is known to be particularly good at forecasting gulf hurricanes. I hear it's known as the "Red Dragon" by meterologists.

Post by **clv101** » 19 Sep 2005, 23:42

Quoted from a news report, don't have the link, lifted from peakoil.com

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October light, sweet crude futures soared $4.39 to settle at $67.39 a barrel, the largest one-day move in the contract's history. October gasoline futures surged 25.76 cents to $2.0427 a gallon, and October heating oil shot up 20.14 cents to $2.0384 a gallon.

andyh · Post by **andyh** » 20 Sep 2005, 11:01

Now a 25% chance it will be a cat 4/5 hurricane in 3 days time.....

and a 50% chance of cat 3 and above......

Looks like they will at least temporarily have to shut down rig operations if it keeps on that path - it will get the bits of the Gulf operations that Katrina missed.

Post by **mikepepler** » 20 Sep 2005, 11:01

clv101 wrote:We may be getting ahead of ourselves... but do you have a decent map of Texan coast oil infrastructure?
I found this one but it's not as good as I?d like, click the dots.
http://www.txfishing.net/TX_Map.html

There's some more maps on this page, mainly to do with pipelines and refineries:
http://www.mapsearch.com/digital_products.cfm

Post by **mikepepler** » 20 Sep 2005, 11:07

and more maps (found these on TheOilDrum):
http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm ... full.5.jpg
http://certmapper.cr.usgs.gov/data/noga ... msmall.jpg

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 20 Sep 2005, 14:10

I've been away for a few days and only had access to mainstream media - it's been a good lesson in one of the key reasons why the public have no idea about energy issues....

Nothing on this thread ever got a single mention, and I watched ALLl the news.

Big up you guys tho, cos now I am back online I come directly here for all the real information, great thread

Post by **mikepepler** » 20 Sep 2005, 14:20

Rita is now a hurricane, Catagory 1 for now.

DOPPLER RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY.

from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1311.shtml

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 20 Sep 2005, 17:09

Models show 'massive devastation' in Houston
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mp ... an/3046592

Houston's perfect storm would feed on late summer's warm waters as it barreled northward across the Gulf of Mexico, slamming into the coast near Freeport.

A landfall here would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant, where the waves move in the same direction as the storm, to overflow Galveston Bay. Within an hour or two, a storm surge, topping out at 20 feet or more, would flood the homes of 600,000 people in Harris County. The surge also would block the natural drainage of flooded inland bayous and streams for a day or more.

Coastal residents who ignored warnings to flee would have no hope of escape as waters swelled and winds roiled around their homes. Very likely, hundreds, perhaps even thousands, would die.

Meanwhile, as the storm moved over western Harris County, its most dangerous winds, well in excess of 120 mph even inland, would lash the Interstate 45 corridor, including Clear Lake, the Texas Medical Center and downtown.

Many older buildings could not withstand such winds.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 20 Sep 2005, 19:43

mikepepler wrote:Rita is now a hurricane, Catagory 1 for now.

from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1311.shtml

Cat. 2 now, with sustained winds at 100mph and gusting 125mph And WDSU.com weather forecast has just said its going to strengthen to at least Cat.3 before it hits land, probably in Texas.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 20 Sep 2005, 20:20

NHC is saying that Rita is going to grow to and remain Cat 3 all the way across the gulf until landfall. Personally I'd be surprised if it didn't reach Cat 4 with all that nice warm water to feed it.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 20 Sep 2005, 20:42

I just heard a wetherman say Rita is the 21st named storm this season while an average year gets about 10. Can this be true?

andyh · Post by **andyh** » 20 Sep 2005, 23:24

Now rated at a 40-45% chance that it will hit cat 4 or 5 in the next 2 days......

Its getting up-rated all the time, tho it has yet to develop a clear eye on the satellite photos.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 20 Sep 2005, 23:31

andyh wrote:Now rated at a 40-45% chance that it will hit cat 4 or 5 in the next 2 days......

Its getting up-rated all the time, tho it has yet to develop a clear eye on the satellite photos.

dear god, look at that... expected at cat 4 in just 24 hours... so much for their "it'll be cat 3 all the way across the gulf" earlier prediction.

andyh · Post by **andyh** » 20 Sep 2005, 23:56

Wind speed/force predictions here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... html?table

I aint no expert but it seems to me that with 2-3 days track over a very warm Sea this could be an absolute barsteward by the time it hits land

hatchelt · Post by **hatchelt** » 21 Sep 2005, 09:12

this really is shaping up to be the winter of discontent, especially if it's going to be as cold as everyone's saying.