Hurricane Rita

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 19 Sep 2005, 11:21

It's not a hurricane yet, but it will be.

Latest forecasts show a direct hit on Houston and the western production region with a strength of CAT 4 or greater.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

Post by **clv101** » 19 Sep 2005, 11:28

I've been following this one recently, looks like it could finish the job Katraina started... I wonder if someone up there doesn't like the GoM oil industry! There's every chance this could become another Cat4/5 over the next few days.

PowerSwitchJames · Post by **PowerSwitchJames** » 19 Sep 2005, 13:36

To quote Sam Beckett (Quantum Leap)...

"Oh boy!".

Listening to the world service the other day...talking about how bad it is in GoM...they say it is a lot worse than expected and it is worrying that usually after a storm production would continue ramping up but it has now plateaued.

Post by **clv101** » 19 Sep 2005, 13:55

Indeed, I still think it's worse than has been reported in the media. This is going to run and run with later winter being a sticky point due to natural gas shortages.

Post by **mikepepler** » 19 Sep 2005, 15:18

Tess, any news for us on GoM situation? I read on the MMS website that 35% of the shut-in oil production was due to "on-shore infrastructure problems" - don't know if that's 35% of 100%, or 35% of the ~55% shut in?

Impact estimate for Rita is here:
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... x_oil.html

shut in: Short . Medium . Long
oil 10465158. ( 81.2%) 2413949. ( 18.7%) 0. ( 0.0%)
gas 101256928. ( 83.7%) 36397504. ( 30.1%) 0. ( 0.0%)

Definitions:
Short: less than 10 days disruption.
Medium: 10 to 30 days disruption.
Long: over 30 days disruption.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 19 Sep 2005, 15:23

I interpreted it as 35% of 100%, but could be wrong.

This hurricane looks really bad, crude up over $2 already since this morning.

Check this out: web presentation showing potential impact of a cat 5 on houston:
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/ ... index.html

Post by **clv101** » 19 Sep 2005, 15:34

We may be getting ahead of ourselves... but do you have a decent map of Texan coast oil infrastructure?
I found this one but it's not as good as I?d like, click the dots.
http://www.txfishing.net/TX_Map.html

Post by **mikepepler** » 19 Sep 2005, 16:40

report on Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... in_america

If the storm ``continues westward it will threaten the Houston Ship Channel and the many refineries along the Texas coast,'' said Marshall Steeves, an analyst at Refco Inc. in New York. ``We already have about 5 percent of refining capacity out indefinitely because of Katrina and can't afford to lose more.''

Texas' 26 refineries have the capacity to process 4.6 million barrels of crude-oil a day, or 26 percent of the U.S. total, according to the Energy Department. Most of the state's refineries are located along the coast in the Corpus Christi, Houston and Port Arthur areas. Louisiana is the second-biggest refining state.

Doesn't sound good, when you look at the latest track on NHC:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large
and compare it to a map:
http://multimap.com/map/home.cgi?client ... ced=&db=US

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 19 Sep 2005, 16:44

Tess wrote:It's not a hurricane yet, but it will be.

That looks certain. I just had a look at the water surface temperatures in the GOM. 29-30C. Water surface temperature is the main determinant as to whether a storm ramps up or dies down. at 30C+ tropical storms gradually ramp up to hurricane strength. Tropical storms/hurricanes which swing North, like the one which recently grazed the Carolinas, head off into cooler waters and gradually peter out.

GOM is hot this year. Not good for any system that makes it over Florida or just skirts Florida to the south, as Katrina did and Rita looks like its going to.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
This is 'The Horses Mouth' as far as info on Atlantic hurricanes is concerned. Currently there are 2. Phillipe heading North, which can be ignored, and storm Rita. Watch the numbered "Public advisories" and "Discussion" (text) and the Probability diagrams

Hurricane forcasting is not an exact science. Hurricanes do change track and intensity unexpectedly, often at the last minute just before landfall.

Post by **mikepepler** » 19 Sep 2005, 17:11

It's also informative to compare the positions on here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day
to the predicted wind speeds at the end of this page:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1507.shtml
I've pasted these below, with conversion from knots to mph:

INITIAL 55 KT, or 63 mph
12HR VT 70 KT, or 81 mph
24HR VT 80 KT, or 92 mph
36HR VT 90 KT, or 104 mph
48HR VT 95 KT, or 109 mph
72HR VT 100 KT, or 115 mph
96HR VT 100 KT, or 115 mph
120HR VT 100 KT, or 115 mph

these last few wind speed forecasts are as it passes over the center of the Gulf and heads for the coast. Aside from our interest in what this will do to the oil and gas production, consider this - Houston is where many Katrina refugees are currently living. Also, while not as bad as New Orleans, Houston has a lot of flat low-lying land, coastal islands, and an important port and ship canal. Check out this picture of what happened there in 2001 when Tropical Storm Allison hit:

more info on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

Post by **clv101** » 19 Sep 2005, 17:57

Can't remember the last time I saw prices jump $3.50 in a single day, is this just Rita or is Iran causing any of this? Has any more information about Katrina damage surfaced?

...and natural gas is up 10%.

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 19 Sep 2005, 18:34

clv101 wrote:Can't remember the last time I saw prices jump $3.50 in a single day, is this just Rita or is Iran causing any of this?
...and natural gas is up 10%.

Do you mean this news about Iran?

...amazing that a country swimming in crude oil has to import petrol

or were you thinking of something else?

Post by **clv101** » 19 Sep 2005, 20:35

I was actually thinking about this story:

Iran threatens to use oil as weapon
Iran has threatened to use "oil as a weapon" against the West if the issue of its uranium enrichment is referred to the United Nations Security Council, the only sanctioning organ of the world body.
http://in.rediff.com/news/2005/sep/18iran1.htm

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 19 Sep 2005, 20:48

Originally posted at The Oil Drum
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/9/19/152656/806

"We are starting evacuation tomorrow from the eastern Gulf. If storm follows the edge of the OCS, it will take it through areas already damaged by Katrina, and then into the western Gulf where most of the natural gas production is. If it stays a hundred or so miles offshore, then the northern edge will pound the platforms and rigs. The Gulf waters are shallow, and a few degrees warmer than normal right now - perfect to build strength if it is well organized entering the Gulf. Texas coastal temperatures are abnormally high right now, with no relief in sight this week. There are several platforms which are broken and unstable from Katrina already - these could be lost if Rita hits the previous Katrina track with any kind of strength. Hope it misses NOLA and doesn't follow similar track - we're hurting badly enough as it is."

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 19 Sep 2005, 21:08

clv101 wrote:We may be getting ahead of ourselves... but do you have a decent map of Texan coast oil infrastructure?
I found this one but it's not as good as I?d like, click the dots.
http://www.txfishing.net/TX_Map.html

Try This

Click "Gulf Coast Operations.pdf" on the linked page.

Seriously seriously detailed vector graphic map of Gulf Coast operations as of April This year. Every lease block shown! Zoom in for guide to symbols at bottom of map.
6Mb pdf

PowerSwitch

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