Gordon Brown `wrong` over anti-OPEC comments

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

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skeptik
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Post by skeptik »

AndrewH wrote: As we know, the way our landscape has been laid out this last however-many years, having a car is almost a necessity for people, at this present time.
My emphasis. 'almost' is wrong.

There are many rural areas where owning some form of motorised transport is an *absolute* necessity. I just stayed with some friends who live in the back of beyond up in the Scottish Highlands. If they did not have a 4 wheel drive motorised vehicle, they would not be able to live where they do.

As society is currently organised, whole swathes of the countryside would have to be abandoned in the absence of personal motorised transport.
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Ballard
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Post by Ballard »

What about horses?

Just finished David Copperfield, people moved around just fine, they hired horses from the local pub, dropped them off at their destination.

Ok, it was expensive, and you got wet, but it worked for a very long time.

However there was some concern at the time that London would be buried under mounds of horse manure.
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Post by beev »

I'm allergic to horses.
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Post by beev »

Ballard wrote: In a sane world Gordon B would be gradually raising tax on fuel... whilst explaining to everyone that the reason for these tax hikes was to prepare for a post peak world.
So unrealistic, though. Can you imagine it?

Gordon: "Despite all your protestations, I'm raising tax on petrol."
The people: "Gordon, we hate you! We hope you and all your family die a horrible death!"
Gordon: "No, really, there's a good reason. Just look at these figures..."
The people: "Oh, that's okay then. Sorry Gordon, we didn't realise. Yes, we'll vote Labour at the next election. No worries."
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skeptik
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Post by skeptik »

Ballard wrote:What about horses?
First find your farrier.

At the moment he's travelling from stable to stable over a huge area in a big van. Every village (or group of villages within easy riding distance of eachother) would need one as in the past. And a blacksmith to make the horseshoes.

The rural infrastructure has largely gone. Its been replaced by motorised transport, which allows easy acces to whats needed in the towns.
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Post by beev »

D'you think somebody could genetically engineer a non-allergenic one?
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isenhand
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Post by isenhand »

beev wrote:D'you think somebody could genetically engineer a non-allergenic one?
No idea on that but you can get injections to get rid of your allergy, or so I have been told.
The only future we have is the one we make!

Technocracy:
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http://www.lulu.com/technocracy

http://www.technocracy.tk/
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Post by RevdTess »

isenhand wrote:
beev wrote:D'you think somebody could genetically engineer a non-allergenic one?
No idea on that but you can get injections to get rid of your allergy, or so I have been told.
Probably oil-dependent... :D
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Post by AndrewH »

skeptik wrote:
AndrewH wrote: As we know, the way our landscape has been laid out this last however-many years, having a car is almost a necessity for people, at this present time.
My emphasis. 'almost' is wrong.

There are many rural areas where owning some form of motorised transport is an *absolute* necessity. I just stayed with some friends who live in the back of beyond up in the Scottish Highlands. If they did not have a 4 wheel drive motorised vehicle, they would not be able to live where they do.

As society is currently organised, whole swathes of the countryside would have to be abandoned in the absence of personal motorised transport.
Quite right - I was just trying to be moderate! No more of that then... :)

Where I'm from in Cumbria we've seen the bus service decimated from what it was, and prices hiked up, to boot. I thought I would save money on public transport compared to London!
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Post by Ballard »

My point about horses:-

It isn't a question of if, but when, with the predicted end of oil within our lifetimes what other choice will there really be?

My relation 'pops' who is 101 saw the move from horse drawn transport, to mechanical transport and finally to our current car dominated situation.

I fully expect to see the same in reverse, however I doubt I'll see 101.
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Post by skeptik »

Ballard wrote:My point about horses:-

It isn't a question of if, but when, with the predicted end of oil within our lifetimes what other choice will there really be?
Oil will not end in our lifetimes, nor in our grandchildens. There will at some point just thereafter be progressively less of it.

Exactly what impact that will have depends on the global decline rate. Ive no idea of whats going to happen, other than its not going to be 'business as usual'

' what other choice will there really be?"

well...electricity maybe
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Ballard
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Post by Ballard »

I guess that I cannot really belive that we will all switch to electric powered cars.

For the vast majority of the population the problem will be the affordability of oil, electricity and gas, even if it is avalible. When I say the 'End of Oil' I mean the end of affordable oil.

Of course we will still see combustion engines powering vehicles in 30 years time. But only the Very Rich will be able to afford them.

In this situation people will switch to what they can afford, what is that likely to be?
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Post by skeptik »

Ballard wrote:I guess that I cannot really belive that we will all switch to electric powered cars.
30 years? well who knows...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... JKmwXPuoZw
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Post by mikepepler »

Ballard wrote:I guess that I cannot really belive that we will all switch to electric powered cars.
I doubt many of us think we'll still all be driving. We might have some powered personal transport, but we simply won't have the spare energy to cart around a ton of metal whenever we go somewhere. Now, electrical assist on a bike might be a different matter....

At the end of the day, while it's interesting to guess about how the future transport will work out, we are unlikely to make correct predictions. Consider past predictions and missed ideas:

- nuclear power would make electricity too cheap to meter
- we should all have flying cars by now, be living on the moon, etc.
- SMS (text messages) services are there for fault diagnosis on the mobile networks - nobody ever thought customers would want to use them
- Microsoft thought everyone would use MSN rather than browse the internet

there's probably loads more, but the lesson I draw from it is that whatever we predict will happen probably won't - it'll be something we don't expect. The only thing I think we can be absolutely sure of is that "business as usual" will not continue for much longer. The best thing we can do is to be mentally ready to adapt, and not try to hold on to things that are not going to last.

I'll stop rambling now :wink:
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Post by fishertrop »

mikepepler wrote:there's probably loads more, but the lesson I draw from it is that whatever we predict will happen probably won't - it'll be something we don't expect.
Generally I would agree with that but I would add that you can often predict some of the conext, some of the wider parameters (such as less energy), even tho - as you say - you can rarely predict everything spot on.

If you have an understanding of the likely frame that a change will take place in, this can help hugely in preparing for what changes might come, whatever they might be....
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