global warming is not human caused paper

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

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21st_century_caveman
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Post by 21st_century_caveman »

skeptik wrote: In the context of PO, I think the Heathrow protestors are absolutely right. Building more runways and terminals is going to be a massive waste of resources.
That was one of the main reasons i was at the protest, along with showing solidarity with the local people who are the victims of the most disgusting underhand tactics by BAA.
It was also good fun.
Humans always do the most intelligent thing after every stupid alternative has failed. - R. Buckminster Fuller

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Bozzio
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Post by Bozzio »

clv101 wrote:
Bozzio wrote:As I've said before, why discuss CC on this forum if we accept the remaining oil and gas will be burned anyway?
Don't understand your logic there, why should that fact affect whether we talk about climate change?
Bozzio wrote:Seems to me that the goal posts are being constantly changed here. One minute we should listen to the Heathrow protestors. The next minute it's all irrelevant.
It's not black and white as you make out. Two aspects - making best use of a finite resource (which probably isn't flying around the UK/Europe on short haul flights) and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Bozzio wrote:I think I'll turn up my heating since its impact will be tiny compared with aviation fuel use which is apparently now irrelevant anyway. Besides, I'll be helping to bring on peak gas which in turn will aid the reduction in CO2 output.
If we agree that there is a finite amount of gas, the production rates is limited and it's all going to be burnt then sure - turn the heating up and burn it however you like. It won't make any difference to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. However it will make a difference to your wallet, the national balance of payments and the allocation of gas (there's an equity issue).
This forum is about PO and not CC. If it were called CO2switch then I wouldn't be on here since climate change doesn't interest me regardless of whether it may or may not affect me in the future. If us humans are going to burn all fuels available to us then the CO2 output will rise regardless of what is said on this forum so why bother discussing it, especially, as I've said above, when this is a forum about the peak of oil and gas supply. It seems to me that only TPTB can engineer a real difference by making the necessary changes to transport and power generation as described in Hansen's lecture. What I do will add little to help in the grand scheme of things and that goes for all of us unless we are forced to drive less or buy air powered cars which just isn't going to happen while the oil companies are in charge and Bush remains in power. I'm all for lobbying the government and giving BAA a good kicking which they rightfully deserve but unless the big corporations act then the comman man will not follow. Personally I think real results will only occur when the effects of PO are felt by us all and we'll be forced to reduce our carbon footprint whether we like it or not, although, ironically, TPTB, the managers of big business and the rich (who probably own those businesses) will be less affected.

One thought. If many people on this forum believe that PO, which is a man made event, will bring much pain, suffering, death and so on and discuss these outcomes as the inevitable fate facing the ignorant sheeple, why is it that CC, which is also a man-made event, is viewed as something we should attempt to avoid at all costs? Why not accept that CC is also an inevitable consequence of our lifestyle and will too cost lives and suffering? Maybe this is the thinking behind the Bush administration's own inaction on CC?
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Might I suggest that it's worth talking about CC here because it impacts our choice of alternative fuels to oil. For example coal gasification would obviously be less problematic if CC were not an issue. Also the presence or otherwise of CC as an issue affects the choice of land-use (in my case "will said land exist any more?"! but that's a bit extreme), it'lll affect what food we can grow in the UK, how much heating we will need, etc...

my 2p.
Last edited by RenewableCandy on 13 Oct 2007, 23:15, edited 1 time in total.
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

Bozzio wrote:This forum is about PO and not CC.
Peak oil and climate change are two aspects of the same subject - very broadly sustainability but more specifically energy.

We all need to be more holistic in our thinking, consider as wider system as we can. Taking a blinkered approach is not helpful. We?ve seen what that does - the Hirsh report only considering peak oil, attempts to keep all the cars on the road by finding alternative liquid fuels from coal, from tar sands and the rest. That isn't the answer. On the other side we have the Stern report that didn't consider depletion at all so based all its economic modelling on there being cheap and abundant oil going forward.

To move the PO debate above a simplistic level it needs to be considered as just one aspect of a far larger and more complex system.
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Post by Bozzio »

clv101 wrote:
Bozzio wrote:This forum is about PO and not CC.
Peak oil and climate change are two aspects of the same subject - very broadly sustainability but more specifically energy.

We all need to be more holistic in our thinking, consider as wider system as we can. Taking a blinkered approach is not helpful. We?ve seen what that does - the Hirsh report only considering peak oil, attempts to keep all the cars on the road by finding alternative liquid fuels from coal, from tar sands and the rest. That isn't the answer. On the other side we have the Stern report that didn't consider depletion at all so based all its economic modelling on there being cheap and abundant oil going forward.

To move the PO debate above a simplistic level it needs to be considered as just one aspect of a far larger and more complex system.
Fair point although I still come back to your assertion that PO will bring with it peak CO2 and therefore CC is subordinate to PO.

I will continue to listen and learn. I'd hate to consider myself as being blinkered which you are right is not helpful.
SaturnV
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Post by SaturnV »

Bozzio wrote:
SaturnV wrote:
Bozzio wrote: Hi Chris,

Could you explain why?
There is a finite but tiny quantity of carbon on earth, and a very small proportion of this is constantly being cycled naturally. The rest is locked up, as fossil fuels and in the ocean deep and does not ordinarily enter the carbon cycle. But if we release it into the atmosphere, either as CO2 or methane, then the natural balance within the cycle is upset.
Yes, yes, I understand that. The question was more about why Man's 3% CO2 emmission is more significant than the other 97%?
Although the earth's natural sinks - land vegetation and oceans can absorb a lot of this manmade CO2, nevertheless around half or roughly 3 gigatonnes (3 x 1012 kg remains un-sequestered. This excess carbon has been building up since at least the beginning of the Industrial Era meaning with each passing year the accumulated volume that needs to be dealt with becomes greater.
"The human species may be seen as having evolved in the service of entropy" - David Price.
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Post by MacG »

skeptik wrote:
MacG wrote:I cant stop wondering about how much extra carbon dioxide will be emitted as a direct consequence of the Nobel peace prize? Lots and lots of people flying around and eating a fancy dinner to top it off. If the Norwegians really MEANT something with their award, they would have canceled the ceremonies and had some locally produced fish and chips for dinner.
Damn! Wish I was on the Environment conference circuit. They always have them in such interesting places. Next biennial global warming conference for 'interested parties' is December 3rd in Bali. Lovely.

Several thousand people mainly from Europe and North America fly half way round the world to Bali for 10 days to discuss CO2 induced global warming.

Sort of warms the cockles that all these environmental activists, bureacrats, politicians and scientists are so concerned about our future that they are willing to leave their families behind in London, Tokyo, Chigago, etc.. in December and congregate in...Bali. I just cant imagine why they didn't choose Birmingham. Less far to fly for most of the participants. I mean, whats wrong with Birmingham in December? They have a perfectly good international convention center, and you can get to it by train. As it is the participants will have a really long flight to put up with before they can change into their swimming trunks and bikinis. It's tough at the top.

http://www.ictsd.org/biores/07-07-20/events.htm
Amazing! "Do as I say, not as I do" comes to mind once again.
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isenhand
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Post by isenhand »

Something else of interest; global warming on Mars
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Post by biffvernon »

Oh don't be silly. That Mars article, from last February, makes a very silly link between here and there. Mars's frozen CO2 poles alternate between north and south and changes have nothing to do with solar output.

What, Isenhand, is your motivation for such posts?
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Post by isenhand »

biffvernon wrote:
What, Isenhand, is your motivation for such posts?
Exploration, investigation and looking for alternatives. I?m doing a talk next month on global warming. The main point being we need to stop doing what we are doing. However, I need to investigate alternative explanations as well as changing what we are doing has no impact if global warming does not have a human cause. At the moment the two best bit of evidence that suggest non-human caused global warming lies with ancient ice ages occurring at a time of higher CO2 than now and Mars warming at the same time as the Earth. The first one isn?t so good as changes in CO2 levels do match ice ages, which suggest that CO2 does effect climate but may not be the only thing that effect climate.

The Mars link is a bit more interesting. If global warming is not human caused but has something to do with the way the sun works then other planets warming when the Earth warms is something that would be expected. It shouldn?t effect just two planets but others as well so I think I will need to look at any warming on other planets.


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Post by biffvernon »

OK, but I don't think there's much point in looking at other planets. Firstly because they don't show warming. Secondly their atmospheric processes are just so utterly different to ours that they don't make good models for what happens here, whatever warming or cooling we might find on them.
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Post by clv101 »

I think isenhand has a point. If several planets in the solar system can be shown all to have similar warming trends then that would suggest an extra-planetary influence.

Good data exists for the last 30 years or so - has anyone plotted 8 curves?
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Post by syberberg »

@isenhand, you might find these articles interesting:

Pluto

Jupiter

Mars

Neptune
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Perhaps I could weigh in on the Mars thing because I'm supposed to know some astronomy?

There are natural 'climate cycles' here on earth which are to do with:
1. the Sun (eg sunspots every 11,22, hundred-and-something years)
2. our eccentric orbit/ polar precesion etc (eg polar precession every 26,000 years and others, whose sum-total gives the milankovich 100,000 year cycle)

On top of these is superimposed, what we're doing to the planet.

OK you can see that 1. but not 2. would also have some influence on Mars. Mars will probably have its own equivalent of 2. which (my guess) is the cause of its polar alternating thang.

Right, back to the sun. Its output has been being measured, fairly reliably, for decades. Both from the surface (the chaps who discovered Global Dimming used irradiance time-series) and from space (no dimming, natch).

The upshot: These latter (space-based Sun data) have shown no change which could account for global warming all by itself: we (or possibly something else on the planet) are the culprits. So no blame for the Astronomers :)
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isenhand
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Post by isenhand »

biffvernon wrote:OK, but I don't think there's much point in looking at other planets. Firstly because they don't show warming. Secondly their atmospheric processes are just so utterly different to ours that they don't make good models for what happens here, whatever warming or cooling we might find on them.
Some people have argued that they do but from what I see your second point forms a good reason why that might not have significant to Earth. From what I?ve been reading, the arguments against any connection centre around different planets do things differently.

Syberberg, thanks.

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