Are we still in denial?

Adam1 · Post by **Adam1** » 20 Sep 2007, 10:20

Despite being aware of peak oil and its implications for two years now and having read widely about it throughout that time, I have been wondering whether I really have, deep down, emotionally, completely accepted the reality of it. How about all of you?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 20 Sep 2007, 11:17

I have always had what I call a realistic (and others call a pesimistic)
view of the world. We all learn to plan based on many varied and
contradictory predictions of the future. As time passes, some predictions are seen as increasingly unlikely, and you adjust your 'mean forcast' appropriately. There is nothing new in peak oil/GW that I haven't considered over 25 years, but 25 years ago, they were a fairly minor part of my world view.

Emotionally, I have had a few setbacks in my life, but on that level, my life is looking better than it has ever done. I haven't done as much material planning and preparation as I should have done, but I am building karma in my personal relations, so that as each new headline appears on the news down the slippery slope, I have to some extent predicted and explained it to my significant other, and already discussed any material changes, actions or preparations needed.

Some physical preparations are useful, but we do not know how the potential futures will unfold., so mental preparation is more important.

(Sorry to sound smug - I don't mean to be. )

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 20 Sep 2007, 11:32

I would say that I have mentally apprehended the implications, but the real understanding of the situation in my heart will only come from actual experience.

mkwin · Post by **mkwin** » 20 Sep 2007, 11:46

Having a full acceptance of the implications is so difficult given so much uncertainty.

stumuz · Post by **stumuz** » 20 Sep 2007, 12:15

I could be taking a very simplistic view of all this PO stuff but it seems a very simple concept. Fossil fuel Energy is going to become very expensive and increasingly difficult to get hold of. Simple really.
The solution in my little simple world is use less of it and you will benefit in many different ways, mostly financial.
However, there is a tendency for a lot of people to ?bump their gums? about PO without any corresponding actions. This phenomenon of ?talking a good job? does not affect me in any way and some of the discussions are quite interesting, but should the metaphoric wheel ever come off I wonder what they would do for the actual necessities of life?
I suggested on another thread whether anyone was interested in starting a topic on how little fossil fuel you and your family could use .This is the bread and butter of being PO prepared. Judging by the responses it was not a popular suggestion!

lancasterlad · Post by **lancasterlad** » 20 Sep 2007, 12:19

I think Andy's reply is a fair summary for me. Nicely put.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 20 Sep 2007, 12:25

I suggested on another thread whether anyone was interested in starting a topic on how little fossil fuel you and your family could use .This is the bread and butter of being PO prepared.

You also need to be in a position to ride out what happens to those around you (businesses, families, government) when the cost & availability of energy become problematic.

You might need to add employment, investment, medical - or even "defence" - preparations to your list.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 20 Sep 2007, 12:27

Hmm... I think it's both difficult and simple at the same time. It's dead simple to imagine just dead simple and boring poverty, but it's impossible to imagine the complexities when roughly everyone get poorer and poorer. What will happen with the collective minds? Will there be new authoritarian movements? Or just a slow dissolution of everything?

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 20 Sep 2007, 13:34

Here's a few optimist's thoughts.

I tend to think that we in rich countries might well move back (somewhat) to the way things used to be. Let's face it, oil isn't going to suddenly run out, just get more and more expensive as it runs out.

Take for instance, transport. Way back when, you had to be quite affluent to run a car, say a doctor or banker or whatever. The rest of us used bikes, feet, buses, etc. Food came from much nearer. To get things from abroad took a lot of effort and patience and expense. You holidayed in your own country.

What I mean is, unless demand is so powerful that oil really does run out extremely quickly, we may end up going back to those days in energy terms.

It's a simplistic, idealistic, view, I'm aware of that. I'm also aware of the implications of population size, which may possibly be the main factor that throws it out, along with climate change.

Also, peoples' expectations are way higher these days but that's where a gradual oil depletion comes in so that we gradually move back to our old ways of getting about.

Is there something in this or should I panic instead?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 20 Sep 2007, 13:37

emordnilap wrote:Here's a few optimist's thoughts.

I tend to think that we in rich countries might well move back (somewhat) to the way things used to be. Let's face it, oil isn't going to suddenly run out, just get more and more expensive as it runs out.

Take for instance, transport. Way back when, you had to be quite affluent to run a car, say a doctor or banker or whatever. The rest of us used bikes, feet, buses, etc. Food came from much nearer. To get things from abroad took a lot of effort and patience and expense. You holidayed in your own country.

What I mean is, unless demand is so powerful that oil really does run out extremely quickly, we may end up going back to those days in energy terms.

It's a simplistic, idealistic, view, I'm aware of that. I'm also aware of the implications of population size, which may possibly be the main factor that throws it out, along with climate change.

Also, peoples' expectations are way higher these days but that's where a gradual oil depletion comes in so that we gradually move back to our old ways of getting about.

Is there something in this or should I panic instead?

I think this may well be entirely reasonable. Even if reality turns out to be somewhere in between, it may not be the complete catastrophe which some are suggesting it might be.

Prepare for the worst - hope for the best. That's my approach.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 20 Sep 2007, 13:45

Andy Hunt wrote:Prepare for the worst - hope for the best.

Hope there's no copyright on that. I'm going to use it.

21st_century_caveman · Post by **21st_century_caveman** » 20 Sep 2007, 13:53

MacG wrote: Will there be new authoritarian movements?

Unfortunately i think we're already seeing this happening, for example pseudo-democracy, DNA databases, Biometric ID cards/passports, police repression of protest (e.g. Climate Camp) etc etc.
My only hope is that PO will inject a little chaos into the system to counter balance what Aldous Huxley calls "Over Organisation" in Brave New World Revisited.

careful_eugene · Post by **careful_eugene** » 20 Sep 2007, 13:55

I first heard about peak oil about 3 years ago, since then I would say that my whole outlook has changed. I now accept the absolute reality of P.O and believe that I'm mentally prepared for the (expected) effects of oil depletion. Of course it's entirely likely that the consequence of P.O that will affect me the most is something as yet unknown.

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 20 Sep 2007, 13:57

I voted "I have fully integrated the reality of peak oil into my world view."

I say this because peak oil is with me constantly. It affects how I interpret the news, it affects how I live my life, and how I plan to live my life. I has affected my aspirations, my desires and my expectations. I am a completely different person now that I was before I understood PO.

I have always had a knowledge, a feeling, fear that the world is somehow out of ballance, that we are not living in tune with nature, we have lost our way, and I used to fight this and rebel, but I had no understanding of what or why. Peak oil for me has joined all the dots. It has given me a framework that has tied up lot and lots of thought, feeling and theories for me. Some say I sound smug now, as I talk about the future with a certainty, which can make me sound arrogant, but peak oil makes things in the future that were uncertain, more certain. e.g. Financial contraction, low fossil fuel availiablility, population shrinkage, people moving back to the land, wars and starvation.

However for all the dark side of PO, sometimes I wish we were there already. By there I mean, oil was gone. We were post transition. I think the post oil world, after all teh pain and suffering of cold turkey, will be a beautiful place. I long to be able to stand in a field and not hear a car. I look forward to reading about the last ever flight. I look forward to getting to know, love, respect and work with my local community.

However, as Andy says this is all still theory and understanding, although we can see the affects of demand outstripping supply happening right before our eyes in the news each day now, we still have to live through the powerswitch or powerdown. We still have to see how it all plays out, and we will be forced to feel the emotions and actually experience the horrible withdrawal from oil, and I think that is going to hurt big time. Not in the fact that we simply can't drive, but in food shortages, cold, crop failures, job loss, economic collapse etc.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 20 Sep 2007, 14:13

SunnyJim wrote:I long to be able to stand in a field and not hear a car. I look forward to reading about the last ever flight. I look forward to getting to know, love, respect and work with my local community.

That's me! Oh, traffic...

I moved away from t'industrial noo-rth of England to the rural west of Ireland...and I can still hear the M62, but here they call it the N18. It stresses me out. It gets louder by the day. I am in danger of being creamed by a lorry twice a day as I cycle the six miles to work and back. This relentless upward expansion of transport is truly frightening, I stand back in pure amazement that people are so blind to it. When I moved here, a tractor might pass my house, the odd car, maybe one or two an hour. Now, you take your life in your hands on that same road. "Isn't it great?" they say, "Everyone's got two or three big, new cars these days." Or, the Irish being such an unthinkingly polite bunch, they see a trophy house containing six en-suite showers going up and think it's wonderful.

The only noise anywhere in the world apart from voices, animals, water and the weather is machinery. Take the machinery away please. I want my peace back.

I agree, Sunny Jim, bring on 'no oil' as fast as you like. Shouldn't we all just start jetting around every weekend, become petrolheads, get a couple of leaf blowers going and patio heaters, quads, jet skis, the lot (a neighbour's five-year-old has a battery operated ride on 4x4 and now Fisher Price are making an exercise bike for kids) and help bring it on? After all, the less fossil fuel you use, the more there is for everyone else.

The trouble is, of course, what the selfish sheeple put in oil's place once it's gone is likely to be far worse.

PowerSwitch

Are we still in denial?

I haven't fully come to terms with peak oil and its implications.

Are we still in denial?