Current Oil Price

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 18 Sep 2007, 16:45

Regarding the "record price " regarding inflation debate. Should not an allowance be made for the lower energy intensity of GDP?

Ok we may have a new record high price (even allowing for inflation), but if it doesnt allow for the fact that we have become more efficient in our consumption of oil - then isnt like comparing apples and oranges?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Sep 2007, 17:04

$81.50. Still going up. Probably more to come if (when?) the Fed cuts US interest rates.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Sep 2007, 17:05

Totally_Baffled wrote:Regarding the "record price " regarding inflation debate. Should not an allowance be made for the lower energy intensity of GDP?

Ok we may have a new record high price (even allowing for inflation), but if it doesnt allow for the fact that we have become more efficient in our consumption of oil - then isnt like comparing apples and oranges?

This is what the market is for. The price will be pushed higher until the limit is found at which demand shows some response (or OPEC add more supply), and then the price will consolidate or sell off.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Sep 2007, 17:22

$81.80

Post by **adam2** » 18 Sep 2007, 17:43

Far future (december 2015) oil prices are still under $70-00, this seems suprising to say the least.
I suspect that by then oil will be at least $150-00 and possibly more.

But would not even an optimist expect oil prices to rise at least in line with inflation? That would give a price of about $100-00 by 2015 simply from inflation, without depletion, let alone wars etc.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 18 Sep 2007, 20:12

Ballard wrote:
Other sources are less generous about that Iraq/Iran peak in 1979/80 ... so we might be VERY close to a world record real value.
Obviously it needs to be priced against the current dollar values, as Eriks graph, to take into account the recent devaluation of the dollar.

A newer graph. If we are currently at over $80 then we are getting closer.
A key point is that we are steadily climbing to this level, whilst the 79/80 event was a spike.

Based on 2007 June oil prices

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Sep 2007, 20:31

$82.16, and will be looking to go higher now the fed cut rates by 0.5pts

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 18 Sep 2007, 20:37

Fed cuts rate by 0.5%? Crikey Tess, you are more on the ball with the news than even me!

Just checked BBC web site and yes folks - half a % cut! Watch the dollar sink!!! Hence Tess' remark - oil is on the up! Here comes inflation......

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 18 Sep 2007, 22:17

$82.38 and nearly 1.40 against the Euro.

So not only will the US get hammered via "cost push inflation" from higher oil prices , imports will be more expensive as the dollar devalues.

Im off the buy shares in the company that makes the paper and ink for dollar bills

This is what the market is for. The price will be pushed higher until the limit is found at which demand shows some response (or OPEC add more supply), and then the price will consolidate or sell off

You are spot on here Tess - I was just wondering what that "level" is?

What is the inflation and efficiency adjusted high for crude oil?

$150? $200?

I think I want my mum...

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 18 Sep 2007, 22:34

I agree TB, I think this will hike up inflation in the US and the oil price will next test the $90 mark! It will only take one more serious event to occur to send it towards the $100 mark. I know that might seem some way off, but it is surely obvious to all how incredibly jittery things are......... just one more bank with bad news and a run on it, or a CAT5 hit in the Gulf of Mexico on the US side, or a big terrorist atrocity (whether false-flag or not), OPEC blatently not increasing their ouput, you could go on forever....

My prediction of the 29th October 2007 for the $100 competition has just crept a bit closer me thinks, http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... 05&start=0

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Sep 2007, 22:42

Totally_Baffled wrote:I was just wondering what that "level" is?

OPEC said today that if prices stayed above $80 for 15-20 days they would start discussions on another output rise.

And I get the feeling the market is going to try to test that promise.

It's actually easier for crude prices to stay high now we're out of the US gasoline season because whereas in the summer gasoline prices might be $20 per barrel more than crude, in the winter it's only $5/bbl more. So the high crude prices are much less threatening to the US motorist at this time of year than in the past few months.

But even so, ultra-low-sulfur diesel is still really expensive and as we saw on another thread, US farmers trying to get the corn harvest in are finding they can't get enough for their machinery...

There's a possibility of a hurricane spinning up by the weekend in the US gulf. And La Nina conditions generally point to early cold winters in the US...

I still say there's no crude shortage, but my, if you wanted a reason to invest in oil you've got plenty of them at the moment.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Sep 2007, 22:45

snow hope wrote: My prediction of the 29th October 2007 for the $100 competition has just crept a bit closer me thinks, http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... 05&start=0

Looking pretty smart now, eh?

tattercoats · Post by **tattercoats** » 19 Sep 2007, 09:47

It's downright scary, watching these numbers rise.

Tess, thank you for keeping us on the ball!

Keela · Post by **Keela** » 19 Sep 2007, 11:05

$82.25 on http://www.oil-price.net/ right now....

Is this a good site to watch IYO?

Post by **mikepepler** » 19 Sep 2007, 11:09

Sally wrote:$82.25 on http://www.oil-price.net/ right now....

Is this a good site to watch IYO?

I think you're best getting it straight from the source:
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

...except when Tess is giving us live data!